Golf Betting 2012

[Karabiner]

Small interests on Dr. Noh @ 65 and Ben Curtis @ 80 in the greenbriar thingy for me.

Well done to bobby1 for lumping on tiger at such a small price last week, it was never really in doubt after round two.

I really should pay more attention to his learnedness.

[T_Mar]

Golf thread needing some life injecting into it..... The Open next week weeeeeeeee

My EW punts for week..

Grace @ 66/1
Dyson @ 66/1
Olesen @ 80/1

Summerhays @ 80/1
Clark @ 40/1

[sweet potata!]

I've 2 picks for the John Deere

Scott Piercy @ 95
Sean No Hair @ 46


I took Stricker @ 90 for The Open, I assume he will go well this week and I'll be able to freeroll him in the open when he gets cut, well it sounds good in my head anyway!

[redarmi]

I thought about backing Stricker for the Open this morning too.  Spent hours on Scottish Open this week and can't find a bet.  On Tim Clark @ 40's for the John Deere though.

[Micko]

Thoughts on Jacobson for this week and the open?

[sweet potata!]

I'm also on Sang Moon Bae pre @ 160 he's just -2 at the mo, so it aint an aftertime just thought I'd mention it in case he wins!

[tikay]

Good morning Golfy Geeks.

I read this thread daily, but doubt I've ever posted in here before. Hands full elsewhere & all that.

I hope to be watching The Open from start to finish this week, on BBC.  I usually have this site open to keep updates as to Live scores in European Golf....

http://www.europeantour.com/

Is there a better one?

Can someone also point me in the direction of a site that has a good "Course Guide" please?

Thanks.

PS - Great thread, Dewi.

[T_Mar]

Good morning Golfy Geeks.

I read this thread daily, but doubt I've ever posted in here before. Hands full elsewhere & all that.

I hope to be watching The Open from start to finish this week, on BBC.  I usually have this site open to keep updates as to Live scores in European Golf....

http://www.europeantour.com/

Is there a better one?

Can someone also point me in the direction of a site that has a good "Course Guide" please?

Thanks.

PS - Great thread, Dewi.

Hi Tikay,

Euro tour site is pretty bad for up to date scores I find - http://www.theopen.com/ will hopefully be quicker.  There is a course guide on there aswell actually although I haven't looked at it yet  -  If bobby does one of his detailed course / weather updates on here will prob be your best bet thuugh GL if you having a punt

[tikay]

Good morning Golfy Geeks.

I read this thread daily, but doubt I've ever posted in here before. Hands full elsewhere & all that.

I hope to be watching The Open from start to finish this week, on BBC.  I usually have this site open to keep updates as to Live scores in European Golf....

http://www.europeantour.com/

Is there a better one?

Can someone also point me in the direction of a site that has a good "Course Guide" please?

Thanks.

PS - Great thread, Dewi.

Hi Tikay,

Euro tour site is pretty bad for up to date scores I find - http://www.theopen.com/ will hopefully be quicker.  There is a course guide on there aswell actually although I haven't looked at it yet  -  If bobby does one of his detailed course / weather updates on here will prob be your best bet thuugh GL if you having a punt

Top man, thank you. 

Bobby? As in "Bobby1"? He knows about GOLF?

[TightEnd]

I gather, indulging in a spot of amatuer meteorology that Wednesay's final practice day will see monsoonish conditions but Thurs-Sat is expected to be dry and still

so who does dry and still links golf suit please?


p.s could someone put some ideas on "tips for tikay" too please?

[redarmi]

Judging by what Tiger and Bradley said yesterday about the rough on this course driving accuracy is going to be important.  Think given he has played here twice in his pomp and finished 21st and, i think, 23rd the Tiger is one to take on.  In fact I like taking on a lot of the front of the market.  The British Open seems to suit Fowlers game in general and he is the shortest player I like at the moment but I am about to start work properly.

[Karabiner]

Fowler is my #1 pick for this year's Open too and have gone in quite strong for me @ 40/1 ew.

He impressed me hugely last year when he played some superb stuff in the worst of the weather and convinced me there and then that he has what it takes to win at least one Open. The fact that he has already won on the US tour this season only strengthens the argument in his favour.

[Chompy]

Yup, Fowler been my long-term pick too after that display last year.

[Matt50]

Thread is very quiet considering the open starts tomorrow:

I am on:
Stricker E/w @ 66
Mahan E/w @ 50
Furyk E/w @ 50
Van Pelt E/w @ 120
Jacquelin E/w @ 180

[bobby1]

THE Open

Well the weather forecast finally seems to have settled and looks to be much better than was expected last weekend. If there is to be a bias it might be slightly better to tee off on Thursday afternoon as any bits of rain on the first day look to be in the  morning, in truth tho it looks like a pretty even forecast.

The interesting part of the forecast is the wind, the first two days the wind direction means that the last 6 holes should play into the wind, it looks like scoring well on the first 10 or 12 and then holding on will be the best way to approach a round, with maybe the 16th giving a chance of birdie.

Saturdays wind is forecast to be 15 mph later in the day and a slightly different direction which might change the hole averages completely.

Sunday its forecast to reach about 20mph by lunchtime with gust up to 30mph in the afternoon so that might be a whole new ball game, if you are taking a bet on Saturday its prob worth keeping in mind you will want a decent wind player the following day.

I think the crux of the puzzle this week is how soft the course is going to be in the first 2 rounds after all the rain over the last week, it seem to be in decent condition and the greens have held up well which I think is crucial to Tiger's chances.

Back in the day his MO was to overpower courses and bring them to their knees, his three wins this season have all been achieved the same way, on traditional shorter courses where he has been able to leave the driver in the bag and hit positional 3 woods and long irons off a lot of the tee's. He needed the odd driver here and there but still looked pretty poor with it. Given the main skill needed to play around Lytham, which isn't that long a course will be accuracy off the tee I think he can hit 3 wood or irons off many tee's this week

If its wet he might need driver more but with a good drying forecast thru the week it could be perfect. Basically he is a long way behind many of the players just behind him in the market in accuracy with the driver off the tee, but if that is taken out of the game then his weakness is eliminated and the strength of say Westwood for example is diluted. The way he played Hoylake which was admittedly shorter than this weeks course in a  dry summer in 2006( he hit only 1 driver all week) would seem to be the blueprint for this week.

Iv'e read some ideas that his Open record is poor these days but since 2007 he has only played twice due to injuries and tending too many allotments and on both those occasions he was bang in the middle of the worst half of the draw, his previous 5 attempts from 2003 to 2007 were 4,9,1,1,12. It's old form and he isn't that player these days but he has 3 wins this season which would be seen as a great season for 99% of the field.

He is the main bet for me

Second in for me is Ben Curtis. If you asked him to draw an Open venue that suited him then it would look like Lytham. He gets the Paul Lawrie treatment when people talk about his Open win in 2003 saying if he had been in the lead and had to go win the event instead of setting a clubhouse score and watching Bjorn falter then he prob wouldn't have won, its funny but nobody ever tells Geoff Ogilvy that he is lucky to have a US Open after winning the same way.

He has a hit an miss record in the Open but has 3 top 8 finishes in the last 9 years along with a lot of MC. His game this season tho is as good as it has been for many years due to the confidence gained from a small change to his putting grip earlier in the year, he has his first win since 2006 and ranks highly on almost every category you would want this week. He is one of those players that is so disadvantaged playing on long courses in the US, so this shorter, fiddly course will be right up his street with his accuracy, scrambling and solid irons.

I backed Ross Fisher in the US last week as he was 100/1 over there and about an 80 chance on BF.  Since then tho he has put up a 6 over par 4th round in the Scottish Open and is now 110 on BF, so I am on at a bad price and it will take two flights and a 12000 mile round trip to collect the cash ( don't tell Tikay, I put him on too)

He has been in the wilderness a little since leading the Open during the last round in 2009 ( his child was ill for a long time) and his putting went  but he has managed 4 top tens in his last 5 events and has a nice game. He did have a really good major record when in his prime in 2009 and there are signs he is on his way back. dart thrown.

Ernie Els has great form here and in the Open and is playing well again, you need to overlook his last 2 MC at the Open but his game was in dire shape for a while. 8 top 8 finishes this century in this event and plotting his way around these type of courses where putting stats ( which is his weakness) will be less important should see him go well, tho he does look a bit nervy at the business end these days so maybe one to bail out of and have a stress free last few holes if he is going well late on.

I really like Nicolas Colsaerts links game and I actually backed him at 250/1 for this last year after he had a good finish in the Scottish Open the previous week. The silly sod only went and fell off a bike in between practice rounds and missed the event. He might be a little too wild off the tee but after his good finish in the US Open he now looks ready to be a contender in majors.. dart thrown

For no other reason than Andres Romero has shown a few signs of life recently and he could have won an Open but for a ridiculously unlucky bounce the first year Harrington won, he got a small bet too as did my old mate Greg Chalmers who will like plotting his way around a nice tight short course tho just like Brian Watts and Todd Hamilton probably doesn't have the class to win an Open, he was 650 on BF tho, so couldn't resist.

Obv there are others much shorter in the betting that have strong claims but most of them have had plenty of chances and/or don't have much of a record in the Open. Harrington looks to be bang in form again but hasn't won an event of note since 2008, his swings still hasn't truly held up when bang in contention, he failed again a few weeks ago in the Irish open yet is only ten points bigger than Tiger in the betting. I would love to see him win again as my boy is named after him but for every event he has finished close up without looking like winning he has got much shorter for this.