Tips for Tikay

[BorntoBubble]

for tonights beteveryday offer, is backing btts pre game (4/5) and under 2.5 (evens) in play worthwhile? at this stage of the competition teams should be pretty closely matched, any scoreline with both teams netting would win 40, 1-0 2-0 either way is break even, 1-1 is a scoop for 90 and only 3-0 + is a loser. Or is this a far too nitty way of try to take advantage of the offer?

If your restricted its possibly ok. But if your unrestricted you want to be picking a much higher odds jobbie for the in play better. ideally about 8/1 and close to betfair.

[TightEnd]

eve of election forecasts



our positions, for those of you watching tomorrow night

General election 2015 Lib dem seats   under 33.5   10/11   110
General election 2015 Lib dem seats   21-30   100/30   30
Total Seats - Over/Under Over 25.5 (Lib Dem) over 25.5   5/6   110
Birmingham Yardley   Lib Dem   ev   41.81
most seats   Labour   4/1   20
Ceredigion constituency   plaid cymru   6/4   13
general election 2015   SNP>43.5   10/11   30
Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister   2016 or later   15/8   20

next pm, next government markets are basically a coinflip as of now, conservative/con coalition slight favourite on both

[sonour]

for tonights beteveryday offer, is backing btts pre game (4/5) and under 2.5 (evens) in play worthwhile? at this stage of the competition teams should be pretty closely matched, any scoreline with both teams netting would win 40, 1-0 2-0 either way is break even, 1-1 is a scoop for 90 and only 3-0 + is a loser. Or is this a far too nitty way of try to take advantage of the offer?

If your restricted its possibly ok. But if your unrestricted you want to be picking a much higher odds jobbie for the in play better. ideally about 8/1 and close to betfair.

Spot on Callum

[nellberg]

for tonights beteveryday offer, is backing btts pre game (4/5) and under 2.5 (evens) in play worthwhile? at this stage of the competition teams should be pretty closely matched, any scoreline with both teams netting would win 40, 1-0 2-0 either way is break even, 1-1 is a scoop for 90 and only 3-0 + is a loser. Or is this a far too nitty way of try to take advantage of the offer?

If your restricted its possibly ok. But if your unrestricted you want to be picking a much higher odds jobbie for the in play better. ideally about 8/1 and close to betfair.

Spot on Callum

sweet, cheers 

[rinswun]

Unfortunately, the Blackhawks are just playing fantastically good hockey right now. The Wild didn't do a whole lot wrong yesterday but Chicago was able to hold them scoreless and their one goal held up as a winner. Going to take something special to come back now but stranger things have happened!

[TightEnd]

In the last six years, Championship play-off semi-final first legs:

0-0 after 75 mins 6/12,

under 1.5 goals 8/12,

no goalscorer 5/12.

for obvious reasons. over two legs, big prize for a) getting to wembley and especially b) getting up

the home team is often the weaker of the two teams, and can't go gung ho. have to be in it going to the second leg

the away team is happy to get to the home leg level

i also think it is important that away goals do not count double in the play offs. 0-0 is a huge result for the away team in the first game, less so if the away goals do count double

this year

Brentford v Middlesborough

Ipswich v Norwich

Middlesborough/Karanka are pretty cagey, are they not?

the other game a local derby of course

for the Brentford game on Friday night

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brentford-v-middlesbrough/winner

the draw is the outsider of the 1-2-x at 23/10

under 2.5 is 8/11

no goalscorer is 17/2

for Saturday's east anglian derby

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/ipswich-v-norwich/winner

the draw is also the outsider at 23/10

under 2.5 7/10

no goalscorer 8/1


agree with the logic? anything stand out? which game appeals more on this tack?

[tikay]

In the last six years, Championship play-off semi-final first legs:

0-0 after 75 mins 6/12,

under 1.5 goals 8/12,

no goalscorer 5/12.

for obvious reasons. over two legs, big prize for a) getting to wembley and especially b) getting up

the home team is often the weaker of the two teams, and can't go gung ho. have to be in it going to the second leg

the away team is happy to get to the home leg level

i also think it is important that away goals do not count double in the play offs. 0-0 is a huge result for the away team in the first game, less so if the away goals do count double

this year

Brentford v Middlesborough

Ipswich v Norwich

Middlesborough/Karanka are pretty cagey, are they not?

the other game a local derby of course

for the Brentford game on Friday night

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brentford-v-middlesbrough/winner

the draw is the outsider of the 1-2-x at 23/10

under 2.5 is 8/11

no goalscorer is 17/2

for Saturday's east anglian derby

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/ipswich-v-norwich/winner

the draw is also the outsider at 23/10

under 2.5 7/10

no goalscorer 8/1


agree with the logic? anything stand out? which game appeals more on this tack?

I'd have thought that Team Benham will likely go for it at home, it's very much their style.

To balance that, 'Boro have conceded less than any Championship side this season, & by some way.

[Marky147]

What we doing for the Barca v Munich game?

Barca  pre and Barca -1 in running?

[DMorgan]

Just been having a look back at the Maths thread on free bets with the £3.65 offer

Since this is a risk free bet refunded in cash do we still need to be sticking to 7/1 or longer shots? The crux of the analysis on that was that you don't get your stake back when you win on a regular free bet, but on the £3.65 offer you do unless I'm missing something?

[TightEnd]

Just been having a look back at the Maths thread on free bets with the £3.65 offer

Since this is a risk free bet refunded in cash do we still need to be sticking to 7/1 or longer shots? The crux of the analysis on that was that you don't get your stake back when you win on a regular free bet, but on the £3.65 offer you do unless I'm missing something?

yes but 1% limited accounts like the threads are effectively stuck with 1-2-x markets because bet365 apply a maximum liability for the offer of £100 or so

if unlimited and with a whole range of markets to choose from you should be free betting on something at sexier prices like correct scorers, first goalscorers etc

[DMorgan]

Yeah I get why Fred has its hands tied but I worded the question badly, I'll have another go.

The maths that tells us that we shouldn't be using the free bet on a short price assumes that we don't get our stake back on a winning free bet, we only get the profit. The 365 offer is different because it does give us our stake back on a winner, so does this make placing the free bet on shorter priced stuff less bad?

Question prompted by my housemates wanting to bet over 0.5 and under 0.5 or something similar to lock in a small loss or decent sized win

[tikay]

What we doing for the Barca v Munich game?

Barca  pre and Barca -1 in running?

For Fred, it looks like neither.

We never got refunded the £50 last night, so I checked my Messages from them, & found this......

Dear Mr Kendall,

Following a review of your account, we regret to inform you that we are no longer able to offer you our telephone betting service and whilst our online service remains available to you, betting restrictions will be applied on any future bets placed.

Should you wish to continue to use our services, the Sports offers and promotions available to you will be restricted to the following regular offers which remain open to all customers: Channel 4/1 or Feature Race Free Bet Offer; Sky Dogs 2/1 Free Bet Offer; Best Odds Guaranteed; Racing Value offers; Bore Draw Money Back offer; 100% Soccer Bonus; 50% Parlay Bonus and the 50% Euro Basketball Bonus.

We assure you that this decision has only been taken after careful consideration and that it does not affect your ability to play and claim bonuses in our Gaming products.

Our team are available 24 hours a day by Live Chat, via email support-eng@customerservices365.com , freephone 08000 288 365 or alternatively call 01782 684757 and we will be pleased to assist you. Please include your username and four digit security number on all future responses.

Kind regards,

Sinead K

[JoeBeevers]

Yeah I get why Fred has its hands tied but I worded the question badly, I'll have another go.

The maths that tells us that we shouldn't be using the free bet on a short price assumes that we don't get our stake back on a winning free bet, we only get the profit. The 365 offer is different because it does give us our stake back on a winner, so does this make placing the free bet on shorter priced stuff less bad?

Question prompted by my housemates wanting to bet over 0.5 and under 0.5 or something similar to lock in a small loss or decent sized win

You are looking at it the wrong way. It's the same thing just worded differently. You want to be backing bigger price things to get the most of this offer and not even money shots. Think of it as you don't pay when it loses, and backing a 7/1 shot it is more likely to lose than an even money shot.

[Marky147]

What we doing for the Barca v Munich game?

Barca  pre and Barca -1 in running?

For Fred, it looks like neither.

We never got refunded the £50 last night, so I checked my Messages from them, & found this......

Dear Mr Kendall,

Following a review of your account, we regret to inform you that we are no longer able to offer you our telephone betting service and whilst our online service remains available to you, betting restrictions will be applied on any future bets placed.

Should you wish to continue to use our services, the Sports offers and promotions available to you will be restricted to the following regular offers which remain open to all customers: Channel 4/1 or Feature Race Free Bet Offer; Sky Dogs 2/1 Free Bet Offer; Best Odds Guaranteed; Racing Value offers; Bore Draw Money Back offer; 100% Soccer Bonus; 50% Parlay Bonus and the 50% Euro Basketball Bonus.

We assure you that this decision has only been taken after careful consideration and that it does not affect your ability to play and claim bonuses in our Gaming products.

Our team are available 24 hours a day by Live Chat, via email support-eng@customerservices365.com , freephone 08000 288 365 or alternatively call 01782 684757 and we will be pleased to assist you. Please include your username and four digit security number on all future responses.

Kind regards,

Sinead K

:/

That's not nice.

[JoeBeevers]

Yeah I get why Fred has its hands tied but I worded the question badly, I'll have another go.

The maths that tells us that we shouldn't be using the free bet on a short price assumes that we don't get our stake back on a winning free bet, we only get the profit. The 365 offer is different because it does give us our stake back on a winner, so does this make placing the free bet on shorter priced stuff less bad?

Question prompted by my housemates wanting to bet over 0.5 and under 0.5 or something similar to lock in a small loss or decent sized win

...and be careful. If you back opposite sides, ie over 0.5 and under 0.5, the terms and conditions allow them to void the risk free bet offer.