Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

is the victoria cup a race we should be looking at?

5 place each way 7f cavalry charge

big weights rarely win it...16 of the 29 have over 9st....only 2/10 winners over 9st...

that help at all?

No ew value even with 5 places imo.  Would be betting win only if you are playing with the firms.

Would you explain this, please?

Too competitive and too many runners? Bad exchange comparison? Something else?

[Teacake]

For balance seeing as I had a mild pop at Geoff for his rather one sided reporting of the GWS top 8 bet in the AFL they have just recorded a massive upset win over the reigning Premiers and the team widely regarded as the best in the competition.

They are currently 4-2 and inside the 8, I would say they are one game ahead of where I would realistically have had them after 6 games however they have proved now that they can beat anyone on their day. On a more cautionary note they can also lose to anyone as they were absolutely hammered by West Coast last week and some of the teams around them have started better than expected. At the very least you'll get a run for your money here.

cheers

not a sport i follow

how long is the season?

8 teams into the play-offs?

who are the top few teams?

Regular season finishes at the end of August, finals are the whole of September. Each of the 18 teams plays 22 matches, top 8 make finals, winner of the Grand Final almost always comes from the top 4 due to the structure of the finals.

Hawthorn have been the best team the last few years, next best and expected to challenge this year are Fremantle, Port Adealide and Sydney.

GWS are an expansion team so have a lot of very good young talent and will be very strong in 2 or 3 years. Whilst they have that talent just now they lack experience with the exception of some recruited older players and will be inconsistent as demonstrated over the last 2 weeks.

[TightEnd]

Paul Merson: "If Sunderland beat Everton that would really throw the pigeon among the cats".

How does he get on this panel? amusing yes, but come on.....

[arbboy]

is the victoria cup a race we should be looking at?

5 place each way 7f cavalry charge

big weights rarely win it...16 of the 29 have over 9st....only 2/10 winners over 9st...

that help at all?

No ew value even with 5 places imo.  Would be betting win only if you are playing with the firms.

Would you explain this, please?

Too competitive and too many runners? Bad exchange comparison? Something else?

Just the number of runners make the place book sp at the firms prices more than likely to be bad.  If you want to back win and place you will virtually always be better backing top price win only then place seperately.  As a former horse racing arber for years i would look at a race like this, even with 5 places, and think with 29 runners it is pretty impossible i am going to find any 'arbs' in this race from a place angle where all the ev is usually hidden.

[Tal]

Thanks, arb.

Hills are money back if second, if that adds a smidge of value.

[arbboy]

Tighty who won that labour landmines market ladbrokes did?

[doubleup]

is the victoria cup a race we should be looking at?

5 place each way 7f cavalry charge

big weights rarely win it...16 of the 29 have over 9st....only 2/10 winners over 9st...

that help at all?

No ew value even with 5 places imo.  Would be betting win only if you are playing with the firms.

Would you explain this, please?

Too competitive and too many runners? Bad exchange comparison? Something else?

Just the number of runners make the place book sp at the firms prices more than likely to be bad.  If you want to back win and place you will virtually always be better backing top price win only then place seperately.  As a former horse racing arber for years i would look at a race like this, even with 5 places, and think with 29 runners it is pretty impossible i am going to find any 'arbs' in this race from a place angle where all the ev is usually hidden.

If they were all priced 28-1 and you each-wayed the field, you would show a profit.  So if your win bet is value in this race your each-way will also be value imo.

edit

 the best price book appears to be about 110% so although some of those prices are only 4 places, I def disagree that there can be no value.

[Tal]

Paul Merson: "If Sunderland beat Everton that would really throw the pigeon among the cats".

How does he get on this panel? amusing yes, but come on.....

"People say the hardest thing in the world is scoring goals. I say it's stopping goals going in"

[arbboy]

is the victoria cup a race we should be looking at?

5 place each way 7f cavalry charge

big weights rarely win it...16 of the 29 have over 9st....only 2/10 winners over 9st...

that help at all?

No ew value even with 5 places imo.  Would be betting win only if you are playing with the firms.

Would you explain this, please?

Too competitive and too many runners? Bad exchange comparison? Something else?

Just the number of runners make the place book sp at the firms prices more than likely to be bad.  If you want to back win and place you will virtually always be better backing top price win only then place seperately.  As a former horse racing arber for years i would look at a race like this, even with 5 places, and think with 29 runners it is pretty impossible i am going to find any 'arbs' in this race from a place angle where all the ev is usually hidden.

If they were all priced 28-1 and you each-wayed the field, you would show a profit.  So if your win bet is value in this race your each-way will also be value imo.

 

Yes but they are not all priced up at 28/1.  That is the problem!  The current % on oddschecker at best prices is 120% for the race.  There are 2 non runners now so the runners are down to 27 which makes it more attractive ew with 5 places.  The top end of the market might now be slight place value with 5 places but only marginal.

[TightEnd]

Tighty who won that labour landmines market ladbrokes did?

cambridge....

[Doobs]

Heavens Guest is 16/1, 4/1 the place.  You get a free place there more or less.  If thread wants any let me know.  I have a bit too much on.

[doubleup]

is the victoria cup a race we should be looking at?

5 place each way 7f cavalry charge

big weights rarely win it...16 of the 29 have over 9st....only 2/10 winners over 9st...

that help at all?

No ew value even with 5 places imo.  Would be betting win only if you are playing with the firms.

Would you explain this, please?

Too competitive and too many runners? Bad exchange comparison? Something else?

Just the number of runners make the place book sp at the firms prices more than likely to be bad.  If you want to back win and place you will virtually always be better backing top price win only then place seperately.  As a former horse racing arber for years i would look at a race like this, even with 5 places, and think with 29 runners it is pretty impossible i am going to find any 'arbs' in this race from a place angle where all the ev is usually hidden.

If they were all priced 28-1 and you each-wayed the field, you would show a profit.  So if your win bet is value in this race your each-way will also be value imo.

 

Yes but they are not all priced up at 28/1.  That is the problem!  The current % on oddschecker at best prices is 120% for the race.  There are 2 non runners now so the runners are down to 27 which makes it more attractive ew with 5 places.  The top end of the market might now be slight place value with 5 places but only marginal.

Stop being obtuse!  5 places 1/4 odds is a structural advantage to the punter.  They just need to find a horse any where near true odds and the EW bet is value.

[TightEnd]

Heavens Guest is 16/1, 4/1 the place.  You get a free place there more or less.  If thread wants any let me know.  I have a bit too much on.

if you think we should, yes

how much shall we have?

[arbboy]

is the victoria cup a race we should be looking at?

5 place each way 7f cavalry charge

big weights rarely win it...16 of the 29 have over 9st....only 2/10 winners over 9st...

that help at all?

No ew value even with 5 places imo.  Would be betting win only if you are playing with the firms.

Would you explain this, please?

Too competitive and too many runners? Bad exchange comparison? Something else?

Just the number of runners make the place book sp at the firms prices more than likely to be bad.  If you want to back win and place you will virtually always be better backing top price win only then place seperately.  As a former horse racing arber for years i would look at a race like this, even with 5 places, and think with 29 runners it is pretty impossible i am going to find any 'arbs' in this race from a place angle where all the ev is usually hidden.

If they were all priced 28-1 and you each-wayed the field, you would show a profit.  So if your win bet is value in this race your each-way will also be value imo.

 

Yes but they are not all priced up at 28/1.  That is the problem!  The current % on oddschecker at best prices is 120% for the race.  There are 2 non runners now so the runners are down to 27 which makes it more attractive ew with 5 places.  The top end of the market might now be slight place value with 5 places but only marginal.

Stop being obtuse!  5 places 1/4 odds is a structural advantage to the punter.  They just need to find a horse any where near true odds and the EW bet is value.

Depends on the number of runners in the race and the make up of the race.  You can't say getting 5 places 1/4 odds is a structural advantage to the punter without knowing several other factors.

[Doobs]

Heavens Guest is 16/1, 4/1 the place.  You get a free place there more or less.  If thread wants any let me know.  I have a bit too much on.

if you think we should, yes

how much shall we have?

Sure a tenner each way is fine and your booked if you confirm.