Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

is the victoria cup a race we should be looking at?

5 place each way 7f cavalry charge

big weights rarely win it...16 of the 29 have over 9st....only 2/10 winners over 9st...

that help at all?

No ew value even with 5 places imo.  Would be betting win only if you are playing with the firms.

Would you explain this, please?

Too competitive and too many runners? Bad exchange comparison? Something else?

Just the number of runners make the place book sp at the firms prices more than likely to be bad.  If you want to back win and place you will virtually always be better backing top price win only then place seperately.  As a former horse racing arber for years i would look at a race like this, even with 5 places, and think with 29 runners it is pretty impossible i am going to find any 'arbs' in this race from a place angle where all the ev is usually hidden.

If they were all priced 28-1 and you each-wayed the field, you would show a profit.  So if your win bet is value in this race your each-way will also be value imo.

 

Yes but they are not all priced up at 28/1.  That is the problem!  The current % on oddschecker at best prices is 120% for the race.  There are 2 non runners now so the runners are down to 27 which makes it more attractive ew with 5 places.  The top end of the market might now be slight place value with 5 places but only marginal.

Stop being obtuse!  5 places 1/4 odds is a structural advantage to the punter.  They just need to find a horse any where near true odds and the EW bet is value.

Depends on the number of runners in the race and the make up of the race.  You can't say getting 5 places 1/4 odds is a structural advantage to the punter without knowing several other factors.

I don't see your point.  The horses are bigger prices because there are more runners.  Less runners and heavens Guest is 10/1 and 5/2 the place?  Why wouldn't the value be similar? 

I will post on this later, going out right now

[TightEnd]

Heavens Guest is 16/1, 4/1 the place.  You get a free place there more or less.  If thread wants any let me know.  I have a bit too much on.

if you think we should, yes

how much shall we have?

Sure a tenner each way is fine and your booked if you confirm. 

ok thanks

i have also done Aaron's booking angle, because its a bit different and we like lateral thinking



    Aston Villa - West Ham United
    Which team will receive the most yellow cards?
    Pick: Aston Villa 3.10

Total stake 15.00 GBP
Possible winnings 46.50 GBP

[Kmac84]

Think the 3/1 about Queen of the South is a must bet if anyone can get Fred on with 653 or SpoilSport.   On 3 games on the synthetic surface Rangers have lost 2 drawn 1. 

Also think Dundee and Hamilton could be worth siding with today for small stakes. 

[doubleup]

is the victoria cup a race we should be looking at?

5 place each way 7f cavalry charge

big weights rarely win it...16 of the 29 have over 9st....only 2/10 winners over 9st...

that help at all?

No ew value even with 5 places imo.  Would be betting win only if you are playing with the firms.

Would you explain this, please?

Too competitive and too many runners? Bad exchange comparison? Something else?

Just the number of runners make the place book sp at the firms prices more than likely to be bad.  If you want to back win and place you will virtually always be better backing top price win only then place seperately.  As a former horse racing arber for years i would look at a race like this, even with 5 places, and think with 29 runners it is pretty impossible i am going to find any 'arbs' in this race from a place angle where all the ev is usually hidden.

If they were all priced 28-1 and you each-wayed the field, you would show a profit.  So if your win bet is value in this race your each-way will also be value imo.

 

Yes but they are not all priced up at 28/1.  That is the problem!  The current % on oddschecker at best prices is 120% for the race.  There are 2 non runners now so the runners are down to 27 which makes it more attractive ew with 5 places.  The top end of the market might now be slight place value with 5 places but only marginal.

Stop being obtuse!  5 places 1/4 odds is a structural advantage to the punter.  They just need to find a horse any where near true odds and the EW bet is value.

Depends on the number of runners in the race and the make up of the race.  You can't say getting 5 places 1/4 odds is a structural advantage to the punter without knowing several other factors.

I don't see your point.  The horses are bigger prices because there are more runners.  Less runners and heavens Guest is 10/1 and 5/2 the place?  Why wouldn't the value be similar? 

I will post on this later, going out right now

If 29 horses are all priced at 28-1 and you back them for a £1 each way you get back £29 for the win and £40 for the five places.  That's £79 returned for £58 staked - a huge structural advantage.

Obviously there is a book margin but if for example your horse is priced at 28-1 and its true odds are 49-1 you are going to struggle, but if it will win 3% of the time and get place 15% of the time you have a ev+ bet.

[TightEnd]

Think the 3/1 about Queen of the South is a must bet if anyone can get Fred on with 653 or SpoilSport.   On 3 games on the synthetic surface Rangers have lost 2 drawn 1. 

Also think Dundee and Hamilton could be worth siding with today for small stakes. 

is the 13/10 any SPL team to win the play-off attractive?

feels like it should be unless you think Hibs would be faourite to beat then?

a staggered system right? 4 plays 3 winner plays 2 winner plays the premier league team?

which will therefore be rested going onto one game to stay up?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/scottish/championship/to-win-the-playoffs

[Kmac84]

Think the 3/1 about Queen of the South is a must bet if anyone can get Fred on with 653 or SpoilSport.   On 3 games on the synthetic surface Rangers have lost 2 drawn 1. 

Also think Dundee and Hamilton could be worth siding with today for small stakes. 

is the 13/10 any SPL team to win the play-off attractive?

feels like it should be unless you think Hibs would be faourite to beat then?

a staggered system right? 4 plays 3 winner plays 2 winner plays the premier league team?

which will therefore be rested going onto one game to stay up?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/scottish/championship/to-win-the-playoffs

I really don't lke it, I think any of the 3 in Championship could beat Motherwell.   The problem with Hibs is bottle.  They seem to crash on the big occasion. 

I was considering actually backing Queens when they went up at 16/1 initially.    But decided against it thinking I'd back them at home against rangers, I thought they'd be 2/1 - 9/4 for the game.   Then re-evaluate after that. 

[Peter-27]

Got another F1 bet to recommend:

Group C (KVY/ALO/MAL/BUT) - Jenson Button @ 6/1 with Bet254. All weekend McLaren have looked like a threat to score points. With the pace they have, they could well top this group. 6/1 is too high on Jenson. Suggest £5.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/spanish-grand-prix/group-c

There is an interesting bet here:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/spanish-grand-prix/to-reach-qualifying-session-three

Jenson Button at 7/5 is priced correctly (so not value) - but my instinct is telling me that this will happen based on what we've seen so far this weekend. I'm sticking £20 on. I'll leave it up to TFT's discretion if they wish to take this or not

EDIT: The market is fluctuating quite a bit on this one, I am personally happy to take 7/5 or above though.

no go

restricted to 83p


Button to reach q3


2x mercedes
2 x ferrari
2x williams
1 or 2  redbull..2 probably
1 or 2 toro rosso..maybe 1
1 or 2 lotus maybe 1
Alonso, who he would have to qualify above

Button is a notoriously poor qualifier (relative to team mates). much better racer than single lap driver

it should be odds against Button right, so 7/5 is about right?

In the two qualifying sessions this season where Button and Alonso have both set lap times, Button is 2-0 up.

7/5 is about right really, given how tight the midfield is. I've just noticed that Button is driving with more confidence this weekend, and he's taking a different line in the final few corners compared to previous seasons which appears to be working for him. I've asked for £30 at 2.92 on the exchange.

I was wrong, good avoid!

[TightEnd]

Think the 3/1 about Queen of the South is a must bet if anyone can get Fred on with 653 or SpoilSport.   On 3 games on the synthetic surface Rangers have lost 2 drawn 1. 

Also think Dundee and Hamilton could be worth siding with today for small stakes. 

was limited to a tenner, but had to get the 3/1

1    
Queen of South
   Queen of South v Rangers
Full Time Result    09/05/2015    3/1
   None    To Run
Stake 10.00    To Return 40.00

on the other two best prices we can get are 5/2 Dundee and 9/4 Hamilton

let me know if you want those on

both big home under-dogs, but we can't get the top prices

[Kmac84]

I'd take the 5/2 about Dundee.  Leave Hamiton.

[tikay]

After an hour, Sunderland are a goal up away to Everton.

Not ideal for Fred.

[arbboy]

After an hour, Sunderland are a goal up away to Everton.

Not ideal for Fred.

Great for stoke top 10. 

[TightEnd]

I'd take the 5/2 about Dundee.  Leave Hamiton.

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Dundee v Inverness Caledonian Thistle
Match Result
   Dundee    5/2    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 35.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 35.00

[Marky147]

Do you want anything putting on, Rich?

[TightEnd]

Do you want anything putting on, Rich?

no we're good thanks

[JohnCharver]

2-0 sunderland, perfectly excuted smash and grab. great....