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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 16446138 times)
Doobs
Hero Member
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Posts: 16733
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100860 on:
May 09, 2015, 01:33:03 PM »
Quote from: arbboy on May 09, 2015, 01:27:16 PM
Quote from: doubleup on May 09, 2015, 01:22:23 PM
Quote from: arbboy on May 09, 2015, 01:09:09 PM
Quote from: doubleup on May 09, 2015, 01:06:50 PM
Quote from: arbboy on May 09, 2015, 12:59:38 PM
Quote from: Tal on May 09, 2015, 12:50:07 PM
Quote from: arbboy on May 09, 2015, 12:48:35 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on May 09, 2015, 12:12:48 PM
is the victoria cup a race we should be looking at?
5 place each way 7f cavalry charge
big weights rarely win it...16 of the 29 have over 9st....only 2/10 winners over 9st...
that help at all?
No ew value even with 5 places imo. Would be betting win only if you are playing with the firms.
Would you explain this, please?
Too competitive and too many runners? Bad exchange comparison? Something else?
Just the number of runners make the place book sp at the firms prices more than likely to be bad. If you want to back win and place you will virtually always be better backing top price win only then place seperately. As a former horse racing arber for years i would look at a race like this, even with 5 places, and think with 29 runners it is pretty impossible i am going to find any 'arbs' in this race from a place angle where all the ev is usually hidden.
If they were all priced 28-1 and you each-wayed the field, you would show a profit. So if your win bet is value in this race your each-way will also be value imo.
Yes but they are not all priced up at 28/1. That is the problem! The current % on oddschecker at best prices is 120% for the race. There are 2 non runners now so the runners are down to 27 which makes it more attractive ew with 5 places. The top end of the market might now be slight place value with 5 places but only marginal.
Stop being obtuse!
5 places 1/4 odds is a structural advantage to the punter
. They just need to find a horse any where near true odds and the EW bet is value.
Depends on the number of runners in the race and the make up of the race. You can't say getting 5 places 1/4 odds is a structural advantage to the punter without knowing several other factors.
I don't see your point. The horses are bigger prices because there are more runners. Less runners and heavens Guest is 10/1 and 5/2 the place? Why wouldn't the value be similar?
I will post on this later, going out right now
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
TightEnd
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100861 on:
May 09, 2015, 01:33:35 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on May 09, 2015, 01:29:01 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on May 09, 2015, 01:26:23 PM
Quote from: Doobs on May 09, 2015, 01:15:41 PM
Heavens Guest is 16/1, 4/1 the place. You get a free place there more or less. If thread wants any let me know. I have a bit too much on.
if you think we should, yes
how much shall we have?
Sure a tenner each way is fine and your booked if you confirm.
ok thanks
i have also done Aaron's booking angle, because its a bit different and we like lateral thinking
Aston Villa - West Ham United
Which team will receive the most yellow cards?
Pick: Aston Villa 3.10
Total stake 15.00 GBP
Possible winnings 46.50 GBP
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By the way,I made it through the day
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By the way, I'm leaving out today
Kmac84
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Posts: 2122
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100862 on:
May 09, 2015, 01:47:49 PM »
Think the 3/1 about Queen of the South is a must bet if anyone can get Fred on with 653 or SpoilSport. On 3 games on the synthetic surface Rangers have lost 2 drawn 1.
Also think Dundee and Hamilton could be worth siding with today for small stakes.
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doubleup
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Posts: 7130
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100863 on:
May 09, 2015, 01:48:08 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on May 09, 2015, 01:33:03 PM
Quote from: arbboy on May 09, 2015, 01:27:16 PM
Quote from: doubleup on May 09, 2015, 01:22:23 PM
Quote from: arbboy on May 09, 2015, 01:09:09 PM
Quote from: doubleup on May 09, 2015, 01:06:50 PM
Quote from: arbboy on May 09, 2015, 12:59:38 PM
Quote from: Tal on May 09, 2015, 12:50:07 PM
Quote from: arbboy on May 09, 2015, 12:48:35 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on May 09, 2015, 12:12:48 PM
is the victoria cup a race we should be looking at?
5 place each way 7f cavalry charge
big weights rarely win it...16 of the 29 have over 9st....only 2/10 winners over 9st...
that help at all?
No ew value even with 5 places imo. Would be betting win only if you are playing with the firms.
Would you explain this, please?
Too competitive and too many runners? Bad exchange comparison? Something else?
Just the number of runners make the place book sp at the firms prices more than likely to be bad. If you want to back win and place you will virtually always be better backing top price win only then place seperately. As a former horse racing arber for years i would look at a race like this, even with 5 places, and think with 29 runners it is pretty impossible i am going to find any 'arbs' in this race from a place angle where all the ev is usually hidden.
If they were all priced 28-1 and you each-wayed the field, you would show a profit. So if your win bet is value in this race your each-way will also be value imo.
Yes but they are not all priced up at 28/1. That is the problem! The current % on oddschecker at best prices is 120% for the race. There are 2 non runners now so the runners are down to 27 which makes it more attractive ew with 5 places. The top end of the market might now be slight place value with 5 places but only marginal.
Stop being obtuse!
5 places 1/4 odds is a structural advantage to the punter
. They just need to find a horse any where near true odds and the EW bet is value.
Depends on the number of runners in the race and the make up of the race. You can't say getting 5 places 1/4 odds is a structural advantage to the punter without knowing several other factors.
I don't see your point. The horses are bigger prices because there are more runners. Less runners and heavens Guest is 10/1 and 5/2 the place? Why wouldn't the value be similar?
I will post on this later, going out right now
If 29 horses are all priced at 28-1 and you back them for a £1 each way you get back £29 for the win and £40 for the five places. That's £79 returned for £58 staked - a huge structural advantage.
Obviously there is a book margin but if for example your horse is priced at 28-1 and its true odds are 49-1 you are going to struggle, but if it will win 3% of the time and get place 15% of the time you have a ev+ bet.
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TightEnd
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100864 on:
May 09, 2015, 02:06:03 PM »
Quote from: Kmac84 on May 09, 2015, 01:47:49 PM
Think the 3/1 about Queen of the South is a must bet if anyone can get Fred on with 653 or SpoilSport. On 3 games on the synthetic surface Rangers have lost 2 drawn 1.
Also think Dundee and Hamilton could be worth siding with today for small stakes.
is the 13/10 any SPL team to win the play-off attractive?
feels like it should be unless you think Hibs would be faourite to beat then?
a staggered system right? 4 plays 3 winner plays 2 winner plays the premier league team?
which will therefore be rested going onto one game to stay up?
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/scottish/championship/to-win-the-playoffs
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Kmac84
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2122
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100865 on:
May 09, 2015, 02:19:50 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on May 09, 2015, 02:06:03 PM
Quote from: Kmac84 on May 09, 2015, 01:47:49 PM
Think the 3/1 about Queen of the South is a must bet if anyone can get Fred on with 653 or SpoilSport. On 3 games on the synthetic surface Rangers have lost 2 drawn 1.
Also think Dundee and Hamilton could be worth siding with today for small stakes.
is the 13/10 any SPL team to win the play-off attractive?
feels like it should be unless you think Hibs would be faourite to beat then?
a staggered system right? 4 plays 3 winner plays 2 winner plays the premier league team?
which will therefore be rested going onto one game to stay up?
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/scottish/championship/to-win-the-playoffs
I really don't lke it, I think any of the 3 in Championship could beat Motherwell. The problem with Hibs is bottle. They seem to crash on the big occasion.
I was considering actually backing Queens when they went up at 16/1 initially. But decided against it thinking I'd back them at home against rangers, I thought they'd be 2/1 - 9/4 for the game. Then re-evaluate after that.
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Peter-27
Hero Member
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Posts: 1550
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100866 on:
May 09, 2015, 02:21:19 PM »
Quote from: Peter-27 on May 09, 2015, 12:34:36 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on May 09, 2015, 12:26:22 PM
Quote from: Peter-27 on May 09, 2015, 12:17:52 PM
Got another F1 bet to recommend:
Group C (KVY/ALO/MAL/BUT) - Jenson Button @ 6/1 with Bet254. All weekend McLaren have looked like a threat to score points. With the pace they have, they could well top this group. 6/1 is too high on Jenson. Suggest £5.
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/spanish-grand-prix/group-c
There is an interesting bet here:
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/spanish-grand-prix/to-reach-qualifying-session-three
Jenson Button at 7/5 is priced correctly (so not value) - but my instinct is telling me that this will happen based on what we've seen so far this weekend. I'm sticking £20 on. I'll leave it up to TFT's discretion if they wish to take this or not
EDIT: The market is fluctuating quite a bit on this one, I am personally happy to take 7/5 or above though.
no go
restricted to 83p
Button to reach q3
2x mercedes
2 x ferrari
2x williams
1 or 2 redbull..2 probably
1 or 2 toro rosso..maybe 1
1 or 2 lotus maybe 1
Alonso, who he would have to qualify above
Button is a notoriously poor qualifier (relative to team mates). much better racer than single lap driver
it should be odds against Button right, so 7/5 is about right?
In the two qualifying sessions this season where Button and Alonso have both set lap times, Button is 2-0 up.
7/5 is about right really, given how tight the midfield is. I've just noticed that Button is driving with more confidence this weekend, and he's taking a different line in the final few corners compared to previous seasons which appears to be working for him. I've asked for £30 at 2.92 on the exchange.
I was wrong, good avoid!
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TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100867 on:
May 09, 2015, 02:29:03 PM »
Quote from: Kmac84 on May 09, 2015, 01:47:49 PM
Think the 3/1 about Queen of the South is a must bet if anyone can get Fred on with 653 or SpoilSport. On 3 games on the synthetic surface Rangers have lost 2 drawn 1.
Also think Dundee and Hamilton could be worth siding with today for small stakes.
was limited to a tenner, but had to get the 3/1
1
Queen of South
Queen of South v Rangers
Full Time Result 09/05/2015 3/1
None To Run
Stake 10.00 To Return 40.00
on the other two best prices we can get are 5/2 Dundee and 9/4 Hamilton
let me know if you want those on
both big home under-dogs, but we can't get the top prices
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Kmac84
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Posts: 2122
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100868 on:
May 09, 2015, 02:36:20 PM »
I'd take the 5/2 about Dundee. Leave Hamiton.
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tikay
Administrator
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Online
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100869 on:
May 09, 2015, 02:38:45 PM »
After an hour, Sunderland are a goal up away to Everton.
Not ideal for Fred.
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arbboy
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Posts: 13270
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100870 on:
May 09, 2015, 02:46:49 PM »
Quote from: tikay on May 09, 2015, 02:38:45 PM
After an hour, Sunderland are a goal up away to Everton.
Not ideal for Fred.
Great for stoke top 10.
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TightEnd
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100871 on:
May 09, 2015, 02:51:25 PM »
Quote from: Kmac84 on May 09, 2015, 02:36:20 PM
I'd take the 5/2 about Dundee. Leave Hamiton.
£10.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
Dundee v Inverness Caledonian Thistle
Match Result
Dundee 5/2
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 35.00
Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 35.00
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Marky147
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Posts: 22634
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100872 on:
May 09, 2015, 02:52:14 PM »
Do you want anything putting on, Rich?
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TightEnd
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100873 on:
May 09, 2015, 02:57:54 PM »
Quote from: Marky147 on May 09, 2015, 02:52:14 PM
Do you want anything putting on, Rich?
no we're good thanks
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
JohnCharver
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Posts: 1249
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #100874 on:
May 09, 2015, 03:05:12 PM »
2-0 sunderland, perfectly excuted smash and grab. great....
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