Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

Jason Day invariably gives a good run for the money.  Only concern is he is majorless, but he keeps putting himself in the frame so I am sure one will come.

I like Day this week too and 14/1 seems okay to me.

[Nico29]

Nice write up on Charlton Dung. Enjoyed it.

Always liked what I saw of Watt in glimpses at Celtic.

They are my local team actually, will try and go and watch a game or two this season after reading that.

Sounds like exciting times at the Valley.

[Doobs]

Jason Day invariably gives a good run for the money.  Only concern is he is majorless, but he keeps putting himself in the frame so I am sure one will come.

I like Day this week too and 14/1 seems okay to me.

I used to back him a lot, but 14/1 seems short now we know he has those vertigo issues. 

[swinebag22]

We collected on the top Asian at St. Andrews with Jaidee.

Again it is a great dirty EW spot with  Matsuyama as a clear jolly, 10 runners and 3 places paid. Slightly tougher heat this time for Jaidee with only really one weak link in the race, but the 14/1 with Clare's mob is standout. Tighty highlighted how well he was playing leading up to the open and he played very solid there. Recommend £10 EW @ 14/1

[Doobs]

Fowler, Scott, Matsuyama:  22/33/45 feels kind of nice.

[DungBeetle]

Some Charlton fan feedback on the Champ thread below.  He does make a good point that the first month is a stinger of a fixture list:  QPR (H), Derby (A), Forest (A), Hull (H), Wolves (A).  Got to play them some time though, and if it's to be done then needs to be before an unexpected win shows their hand.

The alternative is we follow them in some way in the Derby/Forest/Hull games where they are likely to be underdogs in all three.

"Personally sounds like a very good bet, I was a bit worried with opening month so well re-asses after that. I didn't go first game , we had 5 academy players by merit  which was a good win still a fee newbies bedding in too. I personally think we could potentially be play offs if things aren't too bad in the first month so 65 points plus I'd guess. Still unsure why they had us 3rd faves to go Down but we'll see"

[Knottikay]

A quick Bojan update for TFT's season long sweat for top goal getter.

He is currently JOINT TOP scorer for Stoke this season.*

He should concrete this position some more after our signing of Shaqiri, who will easily assist him in reaching the 20+ mark before Xmas.


*FTR, he hasnt actually played yet and we havent actually technically officially scored any goals yet.

[Teacake]

Watt has loads of potential, he's very direct unfortunately he's a head case and more likely be driving taxis in Coatbridge than reaching his full potential. Hopefully I'm wrong though as I really like him but I'd worry about him in London.

[swinebag22]

I like Joost Luiten as top continental euro for the USPGA.

This is purely on value grounds as he is 28/1 with Clare's mob and 21/1 on betfair, which is close to the general price.

Luiten has not played as well this season as previous but he is still a good player who knows how to win. His ranking in the market is probably correct, in what will be a pretty tough heat, but the price seems too big. Suggest £10 win

[Horneris]

One final one before I stop machine gunning the thread with suggestions.

Without looking at the spreads, how would you price up a Preston/Leeds points match bet this season. 

i.e. Preston points minus Leeds points (or vice versa)

I believe Leeds should be slight favs. The market has under estimated us for the first time in decades 

As long as we don't get many injuries 

[DungBeetle]

Mid price is Preston by 5.  Thought it looked interesting.

[arbboy]

anyone see that finish at N Abbot?  The stewards is a flip.  Can't help thinking the horse in front will keep the race.

[arbboy]

Expensive one for the firms paying first past the post.  Result reversed.  Jackpot for any arbers playing the 16 runner hcap with first past the post.  Both horses were well backed.

[TightEnd]

I've been monitoring Charlton for a few weeks and I think the bookies are underestimating them.  We have slightly missed the boat as the bookies have corrected after the QPR win, but not by enough.

What drew me to looking at them was that they had something of the 2013/2014 Watford about them in that they seemed to be being written off more on the basis that people hadn't heard about many of their influx of new players as opposed to anything more concrete.  Some of the signings won't work out (at Watford see Neuton/Geijo/Francone/Acuna) but overall I think they've done well in securing experienced middle ranking European players.

At the back they seem to have brought in some regulars from the European leagues - Bergdich (Valladolid), Bauer (Maritimo) and Sarr (Sporting Lisbon).

In midfield  they have added the Algerian Kashi who was a Metz regular for 3 years.  Think Kashi could end up being their version of Almen Abdi, and adds to a decent group already in there in Diarra/Gudmundsson/Jackson. 

Up front they have Makienok (who banged in goals at Brondby before a dissapointing spell at Palermo last season), Tony Watt, Ventekole and Reza.   I've liked Tony Watt in the times I have seen him - fancy Charlton to score a lot of goals this year and feel this may be his breakout year.

Add in a few england youth internationals like Cousins and Aherne-Grant and I think they will definitely hold their own this year and are an outside bet for playoffs.

Best play I think is buying their points on spreads at 57.5.  They opened at about 53 and I got on but just topped up as think it is still too low.   I just can't see them getting sucked into relegation problems so I think 50 is the baseline for me.  If things click I could see them accruing 70+ points for a playoff berth.

As such I think we should go:

£15 Charlton to be promoted at 18-1
£5 Tony Watt to be top scorer at 50-1
Buy Charlton Athletic points at 57.5 for £10 a point

Tighty - let me know what you think (not sure if there are any Addicks fans on the thread who can let me know if I'm way off here).  If you want the spread bet I can put it on my account alongside Fred's Watford bet.  Feel free to adjust stake up or down from the £10 a point.

I also think we should support Charlton in their early games before the international break as they are very under rated at the moment (eg 7-1 to win at Derby at weekend) but we can assess on match by match basis as maybe don't want to put eggs in one basket.
 

We've leave Watt i think on teacake's feedback

can we do a fiver a point with you at 57.5 season points?


your bets (1)

Single - Championship 2015/16

Charlton - To be promoted

Odds: 18/1

1 lines at £15.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £15.00

Potential Return:£285.00

Time : 12/8/2015-17:17

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000955



on the next few games where charlton are underdog to fancied teams, just pop them up if the charlton prices are good....

[TightEnd]

Jason Day invariably gives a good run for the money.  Only concern is he is majorless, but he keeps putting himself in the frame so I am sure one will come.

I like Day this week too and 14/1 seems okay to me.

I used to back him a lot, but 14/1 seems short now we know he has those vertigo issues. 

ok lets leave Day then. (there's everyone's cue to get on....)