Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Singapore GP - Pre-Practice Bets:

Sorry for the lateness, came online as soon as I could!

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez both at 4/1 with SkaiBet. This is becoming a regular bet it seems. They're way under-rated for their car and development rate. Both drivers were quick in Hungary (pre-retirements), a track with similar characteristics to Singapore, therefore I expect a similar result this weekend. Not to mention that Force India have a big upgrade package for this race. Suggest £25 on each. I can only see the price going down as the weekend progresses, so get on it ASAP.

Practice One, Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez at 4/1 with BeWin. Same as above. Usually I try to avoid similar bets like these, because if they are slow in practice, chances are they will be in the race too. However, 4/1 is too much value to miss out on. If we just do the practice bets for now, the 4/1 on the previous suggestion will be gone. Again, suggest £25 on each.

To Reach Q3 - Pastor Maldonado @ 9/4 with Ladbrookes. Betting on Maldonado is always a risk because of his likelihood of destroying the car. However, Pastor is always very quick on street circuits and 9/4 represents value - if he can get through the session with all four wheels pointing in the same direction that is. Suggest £20.

Podium Finish - Sebastian Vettel @ EVS with Willeam Hills. What? EVS. What?! £50.

Tried to be a bit more aggressive with my stake suggestions in line with recent comments. Feel free to scale up/down as required!

Slightly lower prices are acceptable for all these bets apart from the Vettel one BTW - just a message for those who are restricted by certain bookies.

Is evens Vettel that out of line - isn't he going effectively for one spot if the Mercs go well as expected?   8/12 podiums so far this season so maybe a spotof value but don't see price as outrageously wrong? 

At Singapore, he should be placing 3rd a good 80% of the time. EVS is obviously 50-50 so I would say it's outrageously wrong 

It's not a 1/4 shot surely with the Mercs on the grid.   

[TightEnd]

Sebastian Vettel (Fer) Singapore Grand Prix Podium Finish
1/1
Total Stake: £30.00
Potential Returns: £60.00


Sergio Perez (Ind) Singapore Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
4/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £100.00

Nico Hulkenberg (Ind) Singapore Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
7/2
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £90.00

cannot do the P1 bets, bwin only http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/singapore-grand-prix/practice-1-top-6-finish

Pastor Maldonado (Lot) Singapore Grand Prix To Reach Qualifying Session Three
9/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £65.00


Nico Rosberg (Mer) Singapore Grand Prix Winner
10/3 Each Way (2 Places at 1/3 Odds)
Total Stake: £60.00
Potential Returns: £193.33

[Peter-27]

Singapore GP - Pre-Practice Bets:

Sorry for the lateness, came online as soon as I could!

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez both at 4/1 with SkaiBet. This is becoming a regular bet it seems. They're way under-rated for their car and development rate. Both drivers were quick in Hungary (pre-retirements), a track with similar characteristics to Singapore, therefore I expect a similar result this weekend. Not to mention that Force India have a big upgrade package for this race. Suggest £25 on each. I can only see the price going down as the weekend progresses, so get on it ASAP.

Practice One, Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez at 4/1 with BeWin. Same as above. Usually I try to avoid similar bets like these, because if they are slow in practice, chances are they will be in the race too. However, 4/1 is too much value to miss out on. If we just do the practice bets for now, the 4/1 on the previous suggestion will be gone. Again, suggest £25 on each.

To Reach Q3 - Pastor Maldonado @ 9/4 with Ladbrookes. Betting on Maldonado is always a risk because of his likelihood of destroying the car. However, Pastor is always very quick on street circuits and 9/4 represents value - if he can get through the session with all four wheels pointing in the same direction that is. Suggest £20.

Podium Finish - Sebastian Vettel @ EVS with Willeam Hills. What? EVS. What?! £50.

Tried to be a bit more aggressive with my stake suggestions in line with recent comments. Feel free to scale up/down as required!

Slightly lower prices are acceptable for all these bets apart from the Vettel one BTW - just a message for those who are restricted by certain bookies.

Is evens Vettel that out of line - isn't he going effectively for one spot if the Mercs go well as expected?   8/12 podiums so far this season so maybe a spotof value but don't see price as outrageously wrong? 

At Singapore, he should be placing 3rd a good 80% of the time. EVS is obviously 50-50 so I would say it's outrageously wrong 

It's not a 1/4 shot surely with the Mercs on the grid.   

I was talking about for 3rd place only. That would already mean the Mercedes drivers are 1-2.

[TightEnd]

In before Ant,

Palace 10/3 this weekend @ spurs looks mahoosive to my ice cream eye. Spurs looked awful thus far this season, Palace the opposite, spurs playing Europa League on thursday where they are notoriously awful the fixture after it etc etc.

DNB is 2/1 also, whats the best angle if any?

I think the price is about right if we start with the same team as we did against Man City. Very odd from Pardew to start Bolasie up top by himself when he is a piss poor striker. It was a desperate attempt to play someone targetman-like up there but it was a failure. Also I think it highlights the ridiculousness of selling Murray when we did not buy a replacement target man. £5m might be all well and good, but if Wickham is out we then struggle somewhat with the link play up top.

Starting Gayle however isn't that bad. He is a potent finisher, has got better at holding up the ball and will be a nuisance to centre backs. So I want to see him or maybe Bamford in the line up before betting. Wickham himself might be back to play.

Also having Delaney and Ward out is annoying. Hangeland has a mistake in him and Kelly just doesn't look like a natural rb. Saying that if it wasn't for the McCarthy calamity in the last minute against Man City it would have been a relatively comfortable clean sheet.

Also something else to consider is away from home Palace have the one of the best, if not the best record in Europe, away, in the last 10 league games of 8 wins and 2 losses. The way I assume Tottenham will be playing will suit Palace's style of having possession and playing quite a high line for us to counter well.

Ultimately I am bemoaning that we are basically 3/1 nowadays away to Tottenham. Tis stingy. I think we were closer to ten when we first played them there in the prem and I think it was around 6/1 last year. I think the bookies are close the hitting the nail on the head here.

With Gayle/Wickham starting I think3.75 is about the right price. So value to be had at 4.3, but you need to wait until the teamsheet comes out and even then I worry about the value in the future.

A comment on City was that they were not as tough to play against for much of the game of which I saw 90 mins that I thought they would be. They were very susceptible to the cross, and for large portions of the game were not penetrative, despite a lot of possession. A lot has to be said about just how good Cabaye and McCarthur were though, and that Aguero was out for two thirds of the game, but I think the 12/1 for West Ham to win against them is value at their gaff. Especially with their away wins against Liverpool and Arsenal and Payet on fire. I think it should be closer to 8/1.

I suggest for West Ham to beat Man City £20 at 12/1 with VC. I think it is one of those that you can't go too wrong with at the price.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-west-ham/winner

its just as well i read to the end of long posts Ant....

sometimes.

West Ham Man City v West Ham Winner
12/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £260.00

[DungBeetle]

Singapore GP - Pre-Practice Bets:

Sorry for the lateness, came online as soon as I could!

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez both at 4/1 with SkaiBet. This is becoming a regular bet it seems. They're way under-rated for their car and development rate. Both drivers were quick in Hungary (pre-retirements), a track with similar characteristics to Singapore, therefore I expect a similar result this weekend. Not to mention that Force India have a big upgrade package for this race. Suggest £25 on each. I can only see the price going down as the weekend progresses, so get on it ASAP.

Practice One, Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez at 4/1 with BeWin. Same as above. Usually I try to avoid similar bets like these, because if they are slow in practice, chances are they will be in the race too. However, 4/1 is too much value to miss out on. If we just do the practice bets for now, the 4/1 on the previous suggestion will be gone. Again, suggest £25 on each.

To Reach Q3 - Pastor Maldonado @ 9/4 with Ladbrookes. Betting on Maldonado is always a risk because of his likelihood of destroying the car. However, Pastor is always very quick on street circuits and 9/4 represents value - if he can get through the session with all four wheels pointing in the same direction that is. Suggest £20.

Podium Finish - Sebastian Vettel @ EVS with Willeam Hills. What? EVS. What?! £50.

Tried to be a bit more aggressive with my stake suggestions in line with recent comments. Feel free to scale up/down as required!

Slightly lower prices are acceptable for all these bets apart from the Vettel one BTW - just a message for those who are restricted by certain bookies.

Is evens Vettel that out of line - isn't he going effectively for one spot if the Mercs go well as expected?   8/12 podiums so far this season so maybe a spotof value but don't see price as outrageously wrong? 

At Singapore, he should be placing 3rd a good 80% of the time. EVS is obviously 50-50 so I would say it's outrageously wrong 

It's not a 1/4 shot surely with the Mercs on the grid.   

I was talking about for 3rd place only. That would already mean the Mercedes drivers are 1-2.

That makes it even worse.  If he's 1/4 to get 3rd spot then he must be even shorter to get top 3.

Put it this way - If Hamilton is 1/8, Rosberg is 1/6 and Vettel was 1/4, I'd be very interested in backing Ricciardo, Raikkonen and Bottas!

[TightEnd]

Singapore GP - Pre-Practice Bets:

Sorry for the lateness, came online as soon as I could!

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez both at 4/1 with SkaiBet. This is becoming a regular bet it seems. They're way under-rated for their car and development rate. Both drivers were quick in Hungary (pre-retirements), a track with similar characteristics to Singapore, therefore I expect a similar result this weekend. Not to mention that Force India have a big upgrade package for this race. Suggest £25 on each. I can only see the price going down as the weekend progresses, so get on it ASAP.

Practice One, Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez at 4/1 with BeWin. Same as above. Usually I try to avoid similar bets like these, because if they are slow in practice, chances are they will be in the race too. However, 4/1 is too much value to miss out on. If we just do the practice bets for now, the 4/1 on the previous suggestion will be gone. Again, suggest £25 on each.

To Reach Q3 - Pastor Maldonado @ 9/4 with Ladbrookes. Betting on Maldonado is always a risk because of his likelihood of destroying the car. However, Pastor is always very quick on street circuits and 9/4 represents value - if he can get through the session with all four wheels pointing in the same direction that is. Suggest £20.

Podium Finish - Sebastian Vettel @ EVS with Willeam Hills. What? EVS. What?! £50.

Tried to be a bit more aggressive with my stake suggestions in line with recent comments. Feel free to scale up/down as required!

Slightly lower prices are acceptable for all these bets apart from the Vettel one BTW - just a message for those who are restricted by certain bookies.

Is evens Vettel that out of line - isn't he going effectively for one spot if the Mercs go well as expected?   8/12 podiums so far this season so maybe a spotof value but don't see price as outrageously wrong? 

At Singapore, he should be placing 3rd a good 80% of the time. EVS is obviously 50-50 so I would say it's outrageously wrong 

It's not a 1/4 shot surely with the Mercs on the grid.   

I was talking about for 3rd place only. That would already mean the Mercedes drivers are 1-2.

That makes it even worse.  If he's 1/4 to get 3rd spot then he must be even shorter to get top 3.

Put it this way - If Hamilton is 1/8, Rosberg is 1/6 and Vettel was 1/4, I'd be very interested in backing Ricciardo, Raikkonen and Bottas!

Kvyat 7-1 to podiumviate.

yum yum

outscored his team-mate this season

redbull took engine penalties in monza where they could never be competitive on a power track so as to have newer units for singapore

which suits their chassis/low speed corner competitiveness, and downplays their power disadvantage

redbull 2nd and 3rd in hungary, 4th and 5th in monaco the other recent tight tracks

problem is qualifying high enough up to put the bet in play.

[kukushkin88]

Morning all,

I am totally convinced England -24 is a max bet tonight. Very interested in Tighty's view.

Seems to me to be priced on Fiji's improved record against the minor nations which I don't think is particularly relevant and the idea that they will be competent and competitive at the set piece, which will be under maximum pressure tonight. England are bound to be aware that point difference may be decisive and have a very strong bench keen to get on and make a case for a starting berth. I think Fiji might be overawed by the atmosphere.  Weather is a downside but Twickenham has fantastic drainage and the rain will stoop before KO. I genuinely had 32-36 points in mind. I can see them running riot late, long break till the Wales games as well.

What do you reckon?

[DungBeetle]

Morning all,

I am totally convinced England -24 is a max bet tonight. Very interested in Tighty's view.

Seems to me to be priced on Fiji's improved record against the minor nations which I don't think is particularly relevant and the idea that they will be competent and competitive at the set piece, which will be under maximum pressure tonight. England are bound to be aware that point difference may be decisive and have a very strong bench keen to get on and make a case for a starting berth. I think Fiji might be overawed by the atmosphere.  Weather is a downside but Twickenham has fantastic drainage and the rain will stoop before KO. I genuinely had 32-36 points in mind. I can see them running riot late, long break till the Wales games as well.

What do you reckon?

I'm not a rugby expert, but the group of death factor you mention certainly gives me confidence that there won't be any foot taken off the gas when it comes to racking up points.

[TightEnd]

Morning all,

I am totally convinced England -24 is a max bet tonight. Very interested in Tighty's view.

Seems to me to be priced on Fiji's improved record against the minor nations which I don't think is particularly relevant and the idea that they will be competent and competitive at the set piece, which will be under maximum pressure tonight. England are bound to be aware that point difference may be decisive and have a very strong bench keen to get on and make a case for a starting berth. I think Fiji might be overawed by the atmosphere.  Weather is a downside but Twickenham has fantastic drainage and the rain will stoop before KO. I genuinely had 32-36 points in mind. I can see them running riot late, long break till the Wales games as well.

What do you reckon?

I'm not a rugby expert, but the group of death factor you mention certainly gives me confidence that there won't be any foot taken off the gas when it comes to racking up points.

that should be correct

A team scoring four or more tries in a pool match will score a bonus point, as will a team that loses by seven points or fewer. bonus points then points difference could be big in this group

various ways of playing it and i will try to place what ever is recommended 

[Peter-27]

Singapore GP - Pre-Practice Bets:

Sorry for the lateness, came online as soon as I could!

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez both at 4/1 with SkaiBet. This is becoming a regular bet it seems. They're way under-rated for their car and development rate. Both drivers were quick in Hungary (pre-retirements), a track with similar characteristics to Singapore, therefore I expect a similar result this weekend. Not to mention that Force India have a big upgrade package for this race. Suggest £25 on each. I can only see the price going down as the weekend progresses, so get on it ASAP.

Practice One, Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez at 4/1 with BeWin. Same as above. Usually I try to avoid similar bets like these, because if they are slow in practice, chances are they will be in the race too. However, 4/1 is too much value to miss out on. If we just do the practice bets for now, the 4/1 on the previous suggestion will be gone. Again, suggest £25 on each.

To Reach Q3 - Pastor Maldonado @ 9/4 with Ladbrookes. Betting on Maldonado is always a risk because of his likelihood of destroying the car. However, Pastor is always very quick on street circuits and 9/4 represents value - if he can get through the session with all four wheels pointing in the same direction that is. Suggest £20.

Podium Finish - Sebastian Vettel @ EVS with Willeam Hills. What? EVS. What?! £50.

Tried to be a bit more aggressive with my stake suggestions in line with recent comments. Feel free to scale up/down as required!

Slightly lower prices are acceptable for all these bets apart from the Vettel one BTW - just a message for those who are restricted by certain bookies.

Is evens Vettel that out of line - isn't he going effectively for one spot if the Mercs go well as expected?   8/12 podiums so far this season so maybe a spotof value but don't see price as outrageously wrong? 

At Singapore, he should be placing 3rd a good 80% of the time. EVS is obviously 50-50 so I would say it's outrageously wrong 

It's not a 1/4 shot surely with the Mercs on the grid.   

I was talking about for 3rd place only. That would already mean the Mercedes drivers are 1-2.

That makes it even worse.  If he's 1/4 to get 3rd spot then he must be even shorter to get top 3.

Put it this way - If Hamilton is 1/8, Rosberg is 1/6 and Vettel was 1/4, I'd be very interested in backing Ricciardo, Raikkonen and Bottas!

Ummm, I don't understand that to be honest. 80% chance of 3rd, why would you not bet at EVS?

Singapore GP - Pre-Practice Bets:

Sorry for the lateness, came online as soon as I could!

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez both at 4/1 with SkaiBet. This is becoming a regular bet it seems. They're way under-rated for their car and development rate. Both drivers were quick in Hungary (pre-retirements), a track with similar characteristics to Singapore, therefore I expect a similar result this weekend. Not to mention that Force India have a big upgrade package for this race. Suggest £25 on each. I can only see the price going down as the weekend progresses, so get on it ASAP.

Practice One, Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez at 4/1 with BeWin. Same as above. Usually I try to avoid similar bets like these, because if they are slow in practice, chances are they will be in the race too. However, 4/1 is too much value to miss out on. If we just do the practice bets for now, the 4/1 on the previous suggestion will be gone. Again, suggest £25 on each.

To Reach Q3 - Pastor Maldonado @ 9/4 with Ladbrookes. Betting on Maldonado is always a risk because of his likelihood of destroying the car. However, Pastor is always very quick on street circuits and 9/4 represents value - if he can get through the session with all four wheels pointing in the same direction that is. Suggest £20.

Podium Finish - Sebastian Vettel @ EVS with Willeam Hills. What? EVS. What?! £50.

Tried to be a bit more aggressive with my stake suggestions in line with recent comments. Feel free to scale up/down as required!

Slightly lower prices are acceptable for all these bets apart from the Vettel one BTW - just a message for those who are restricted by certain bookies.

Is evens Vettel that out of line - isn't he going effectively for one spot if the Mercs go well as expected?   8/12 podiums so far this season so maybe a spotof value but don't see price as outrageously wrong?  

At Singapore, he should be placing 3rd a good 80% of the time. EVS is obviously 50-50 so I would say it's outrageously wrong  

It's not a 1/4 shot surely with the Mercs on the grid.  

I was talking about for 3rd place only. That would already mean the Mercedes drivers are 1-2.

That makes it even worse.  If he's 1/4 to get 3rd spot then he must be even shorter to get top 3.

Put it this way - If Hamilton is 1/8, Rosberg is 1/6 and Vettel was 1/4, I'd be very interested in backing Ricciardo, Raikkonen and Bottas!

Kvyat 7-1 to podiumviate.

yum yum

outscored his team-mate this season

redbull took engine penalties in monza where they could never be competitive on a power track so as to have newer units for singapore

which suits their chassis/low speed corner competitiveness, and downplays their power disadvantage

redbull 2nd and 3rd in hungary, 4th and 5th in monaco the other recent tight tracks

problem is qualifying high enough up to put the bet in play.

I strongly considered this one too. Decided against it because of potential engine penalties (new engine, but with how unreliable the Renault powertrain is, that doesn't really seem to matter), Ferrari's pace, and Kvyat's relative lack of experience on a very technical track. I expect Daniel to beat him here.

[DungBeetle]

Peter - my point was I don't think it's realistic that Vettel is 1/4 to finish in the top 3 given the Mercs likely take top 2.  The bookies aren't out by such a huge margin.  You countered that he was actually 1/4 to finish 3rd on the nose which means he's even shorter to finish in any of the top 3 spots.

I'm not saying the evens bet isn't value.  I'm just saying your 80% figure that he comes 3rd is way out.

[Peter-27]

Peter - my point was I don't think it's realistic that Vettel is 1/4 to finish in the top 3 given the Mercs likely take top 2.  The bookies aren't out by such a huge margin.  You countered that he was actually 1/4 to finish 3rd on the nose which means he's even shorter to finish in any of the top 3 spots.

I'm not saying the evens bet isn't value.  I'm just saying your 80% figure that he comes 3rd is way out.

I guess that's a difference of opinion then. If the Singapore GP ran 100 times, I would expect to see Sebastian in 3rd place around 80 times

[TightEnd]

Peter - my point was I don't think it's realistic that Vettel is 1/4 to finish in the top 3 given the Mercs likely take top 2.  The bookies aren't out by such a huge margin.  You countered that he was actually 1/4 to finish 3rd on the nose which means he's even shorter to finish in any of the top 3 spots.

I'm not saying the evens bet isn't value.  I'm just saying your 80% figure that he comes 3rd is way out.

I guess that's a difference of opinion then. If the Singapore GP ran 100 times, I would expect to see Sebastian in 3rd place around 80 times

that has to be way out

far too many variables to say he will finish exactly 3rd 80% of the time

[Peter-27]

Peter - my point was I don't think it's realistic that Vettel is 1/4 to finish in the top 3 given the Mercs likely take top 2.  The bookies aren't out by such a huge margin.  You countered that he was actually 1/4 to finish 3rd on the nose which means he's even shorter to finish in any of the top 3 spots.

I'm not saying the evens bet isn't value.  I'm just saying your 80% figure that he comes 3rd is way out.

I guess that's a difference of opinion then. If the Singapore GP ran 100 times, I would expect to see Sebastian in 3rd place around 80 times

that has to be way out

far too many variables to say he will finish exactly 3rd 80% of the time

I disagree, the disparity between cars makes the top three fairly easy to predict in order on this track. It's just an opinion of course, we'll probably never know

[Chompy]

Peter - my point was I don't think it's realistic that Vettel is 1/4 to finish in the top 3 given the Mercs likely take top 2.  The bookies aren't out by such a huge margin.  You countered that he was actually 1/4 to finish 3rd on the nose which means he's even shorter to finish in any of the top 3 spots.

I'm not saying the evens bet isn't value.  I'm just saying your 80% figure that he comes 3rd is way out.

I guess that's a difference of opinion then. If the Singapore GP ran 100 times, I would expect to see Sebastian in 3rd place around 80 times

Meanwhile...

Uncanny!