Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

the ten nominees of SPOTY included 3 sportspeople who were not on the 92 names listed in the Betfair market

That's a bit naughty, is it not?

by the BBC? no i don't think so, their panel choose the nominees. there are nods to equality/inclusion on the list, and a nod towards sports that the BBC covered live certainly

No, I meant by the bookmakers. People could bet on a market which did not include all the runners?

[RickBFA]

the ten nominees of SPOTY included 3 sportspeople who were not on the 92 names listed in the Betfair market

That's a bit naughty, is it not?

by the BBC? no i don't think so, their panel choose the nominees. there are nods to equality/inclusion on the list, and a nod towards sports that the BBC covered live certainly

Some on the list are a joke. It's all about political correctness. Lucy Bronze is a classic example. 99.99% of the population have never heard of her. Ridiculous really.

[TightEnd]

the ten nominees of SPOTY included 3 sportspeople who were not on the 92 names listed in the Betfair market

That's a bit naughty, is it not?

by the BBC? no i don't think so, their panel choose the nominees. there are nods to equality/inclusion on the list, and a nod towards sports that the BBC covered live certainly

No, I meant by the bookmakers. People could bet on a market which did not include all the runners?

Well thats the risk before you know the shortlist, same as any awards specialist market

[Ironside]

the ten nominees of SPOTY included 3 sportspeople who were not on the 92 names listed in the Betfair market

That's a bit naughty, is it not?

by the BBC? no i don't think so, their panel choose the nominees. there are nods to equality/inclusion on the list, and a nod towards sports that the BBC covered live certainly

Some on the list are a joke. It's all about political correctness. Lucy Bronze is a classic example. 99.99% of the population have never heard of her. Ridiculous really.

wasn't there a woman's world cup this year and it got good coverage due to Englandshire making the semis

[tikay]

Settlement Day

Good morning, it's that time of month again.

I have no formal record of what I owe, or is owed to me, & my memory is in tatters, so a quick reminder that we need to settle up today.

So far, for November.....

Joe Beevers paid for the F1 bet, I received that yesterday via Tighty.   

I paid Chompy this morning for a Chesterfield Top Six Bet & Fury's next opponent.

I paid sonour this morning the grand total of £7.50, one winner for £22.50 (Hulkenburg) & one loser, a Greyhound for £30.

Doobs & I are up to date, he sent me £65 for a SCD bet on Sunday. He & I got in a bit of a mess a while back, so we now settle up immediately, both ways, for all bets.

I have no clue at all of sums owed to Fred, but I think I'm in credit with one or two.


Anyone else owed or owe, please let me know.

Thanks.

Really appreciate people placing bests on Fred's behalf. As doobs explained very fairly & eloquently yesterday, it's a bit rum really, as people are losing their own equity, &, possibly, Accounts. I'm acutely aware of this, & not at all comfortable with it.  Very grateful though. No offence taken if any of you don't want to continue doing so.

Quick Update.

For the record, & so we don't forget, I owed RickBFA £1.37, & added another £10 to that in November for a long term bet.

He has suggested it goes on the slate, which is fine.

[Simon Galloway]

You owe me a score for Fury bet also, slate is ofc fine.  Hopefully it will jog one of our memories next time he fights

[RickBFA]

the ten nominees of SPOTY included 3 sportspeople who were not on the 92 names listed in the Betfair market

That's a bit naughty, is it not?

by the BBC? no i don't think so, their panel choose the nominees. there are nods to equality/inclusion on the list, and a nod towards sports that the BBC covered live certainly

Some on the list are a joke. It's all about political correctness. Lucy Bronze is a classic example. 99.99% of the population have never heard of her. Ridiculous really.

wasn't there a woman's world cup this year and it got good coverage due to Englandshire making the semis

Yes and still 99.99% will not have a clue who she is.

Womens football is still a minority sport, been showed by the BBC because 1. its cheap and 2. its seen as the right thing to do.

[tikay]

You owe me a score for Fury bet also, slate is ofc fine.  Hopefully it will jog one of our memories next time he fights

Thanks for the reminder Simon, I had clean forgotten that, not even sure I ever knew. 

I'm guessing we had him to get beat, right?

Slate? Entirely up to you. If you send me your Bank Deets, I'll settle now if you wish, but neither of us are in Team Running Away.

[Doobs]

the ten nominees of SPOTY included 3 sportspeople who were not on the 92 names listed in the Betfair market

That's a bit naughty, is it not?

by the BBC? no i don't think so, their panel choose the nominees. there are nods to equality/inclusion on the list, and a nod towards sports that the BBC covered live certainly

No, I meant by the bookmakers. People could bet on a market which did not include all the runners?

You can always ask Betfair to add people and they generally do. 

No idea why we aren't on hamilton and murray.  We have had the discussion at least twice this year.  It is a great market to bet on.

[Chompy]

Betfair will add those three missing names quickly tbf. Would have been hard for them to get the complete list this year.

That sort of thing happens a lot. VCBet, for example, have had a book on the next Chesterfield manager for their remaining three customers, since Sunday morning.

They're still to add in Mark Smith, who was given the caretaker job yesterday, and probably won't until someone requests it. Happens a lot. Imo they'd be nuts not to give the gig to Mark Cooper, who should never have been sacked by Swindon.

Arb, you have PM...

[Doobs]

the ten nominees of SPOTY included 3 sportspeople who were not on the 92 names listed in the Betfair market

That's a bit naughty, is it not?

by the BBC? no i don't think so, their panel choose the nominees. there are nods to equality/inclusion on the list, and a nod towards sports that the BBC covered live certainly

Some on the list are a joke. It's all about political correctness. Lucy Bronze is a classic example. 99.99% of the population have never heard of her. Ridiculous really.

Other than the footballer, all the others seem to have earned their place.  Not sure who you think is a joke.

[tikay]

Betfair will add those three missing names quickly tbf. Would have been hard for them to get the complete list this year.

That sort of thing happens a lot. VCBet, for example, have had a book on the next Chesterfield manager for their remaining three customers, since Sunday morning.

They're still to add in Mark Smith, who was given the caretaker job yesterday, and probably won't until someone requests it. Happens a lot. Imo they'd be nuts not to give the gig to Mark Cooper, who should never have been sacked by Swindon.

Arb, you have PM...

It was not until yesterday that I realised the Management CV of Dean Saunders. Guess he'll not get another go. Amazing how he got that last gig when you look at his record.

[Chompy]

Considering the players they lost in the summer, which was the reason behind our bet, Deano did much better than expected for the first couple of months. Not sure this flop can be pinned on him, but you're right his record is beyond hopeless.

Now we just need them to give Paul Ince the gig and sell Sam Morsy in January, and we're in business.

[arbboy]

How half the SPOTY field can be in the line up and Joe Root (the worlds number 1 test batsman) is omitted is quite a joke.  Cricket is one of our mainstream sports in this country but because the bbc doesn't cover it anymore then it just doesn't matter but women's football does.

[tikay]

Cooper 99 yards at half time. Andre out. We've turned a 900 down month to a 60 down month in the last week

Does that mean some of the accounts are funded now ?

not as such because almost all of it is through third parties so it will be going into bank rather than betting accounts when its all settled up

as to arbboy's points, which i understand (leaving aside for a moment that many people are only comfortably recommending small bets)

£8k of profits. £4k forward book. £3k was on bwin which was withdrawn on account closure. About £1k is the current "betting book" on three sites, a few others having gone busto during the losing run earlier this month

if we started doing £100ew £200ew the real bankroll wouldn't last long (most likely) currently

i'd rather arbboy you posted the ideas up anyway, the thread and its admin is only a framework, the important thing is that ideas keep coming so people can get on with their own money if they wish

We all know I am not a maths guy(!), however.

I always thought the idea of variance and overcoming it, was to have as big a sample as possible. Surely dipping into these odds on ew "good things" on odd days adds a sort of double variance? You can't pick and choose what days you do it? Make sense?

If that does make sense, and its correct, whilst its not my kind of bet, you either do them all, or don't bother.

Sure it is a level as usual but here goes.  Sample size of 200 bets this will smooth variance because it's a big sample size.  We have 199 bets for £1 and 1 bet for £200.  We have a huge sample size but we are solely dependent on the outcome of one event out of the huge sample size to realise our expected value.  We need to stake correctly across ALL bets otherwise we increase variance and our reliance on not having 'a losing month' on the outcomes of a handful of events.  Having some people betting to 'correct' limits and others way under these limits ADDS variance even though lots of people seem to think it is 'safer' or 'more fun' to bet smaller.  Your bet size as a percentage of your roll should also be in relation to the relative edge you have in a bet.  If we are getting 6/5 about an even money shot it should be a 0.5/1% of roll bet as the edge is small.  If we have a spot where we are getting 4/1 about a flip it should probably be a 3/4% of roll bet size.  If we are getting 12/1 about a flip then it is probably a max bet and 10% of the roll. 

Like i said before if we are moving away from this kind of winning mentality long term because of a lot of the elders have left and it is just a casual fred now for a bit of fun for micro stakes that's cool. 

In poker terms you don't have a stable of 10 players with a combined £10k bankroll who all have a 5% edge in the games they play and put 9 of them in a 50p/£1 game and 1 in a £5/£10 game if you are risk averse (which fred is from the current level of comments/bet sizing etc and the constant worry about losing in the short term) because it increases your exposure massively to one person's performance.  This is the type of behaviour you would expect a risk loving gambler to have.  A risk averse porfolio would want all 10 of them playing £2/£4 to reduce the impact of the swings to the max.

I don't mind the swings in the slightest and i am happy to go with the current approach of 1 or 2 people betting to correct limits and the rest to micro limits.  However if we are then constantly worrying about having a losing month and 'getting out of it' etc in the short term then we should be minimising swings and all betting to the same levels.

Don't want to argue, Argue, but that's not the case at all.

I think I have a reasonable grasp of variance, & the mental strength to cope with it. I'm not fussed, honestly. Yes, I might out up "ooh, we got out of it in November, hallelujah" posts now & then. It's just bants, interaction, bring a bit of debate & fun to the threads. I cba with serious, & the thread needs sweating from time to time, it needs comments to initiate convo, just like when you walk into a boozer.

Upping the bet sizes in line with our 'roll?

We can't get £30 on with most Firms, never mind £200 or £300.

I get uncomfortable & a shade embarrassed when others use their accounts for Fred's benefit already, so I don't want to make it worse. 

On top of that, personally, I am only betting for fun, & Fred. Betting bigger is not something I want to do, it would make me uncomfortable. I don't enjoy sport if I bet too much, it takes the fun out of it. £10, £20 & £30 for most punts is all I need to satisfy my buzz. I don't see the problem here, if others prefer to bet like Big Boys, fine by me. I don't want to though.

I'm very grateful for all the tips, recommends, & hard work that you, & others, put in. As I've stated many times, if someone else wants to take over, that would be abso fine by me, & I'd do my best to support them, & help keep the place revved up.

When Mr Camel started the thread, my main worry was that I'd get hooked on betting again, as I did many years ago before packing it in. (Full time ice-cream at the time). Luckily, it's not happened, & whilst I enjoy a bet, if I never had another bet in my life, I'd be fine with that, too. I play small-ball poker (a lot of it) every spare night I have, & that ticks all my gambling urges.

Incredible how much profit that I - & I hope many others - have made from Fred though, thanks to a combo of our Elders (many sadly now departed) & Tipsters. And all free. Pretty neat, that.  Arise Sir Camel.