Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Nice result yesterday btw Doobs.

[Doobs]

sorry, going to have to be quick today.

Hills seem to completely disagree with me in the first two and are above betfair on both.

Suggest £50 win only on hills mobile on Yorkhill 11/4 (13.30) and No More Heroes 3/1 (14.10).  In each case I think there is precious little between the favourites so have gone for the bigger priced horse.  Hills have then let us get bigger than betfair and given us a free bet on 2nd (albeit limitted to £25).

The other I like is Seeyouatmidnight in the 14.10 at 12/1 quarter first 3.  No idea why it is bigger than blaklion for instance.  This is available on SB, 365, lads, bf sportsbook etc.  watch out, some firms are a fifth.  3/1 first 3 is well ahead of betfair.  suggest 25 e/w.

  

[Doobs]

3.30 This one is a bit controversial.  It seems the concensus view amongst punters that the old guard are rubbish now.  I was talking to Neil about this one on Saturday.  He feels that Sire De Grugy is on a downward path and needs soft.  I don’t really see it and he seems solid enough.  He might be a few pounds off his best, but still seems capable of running a good race and seems perennially underated.  9/2 a place here seems more than reasonable, and ours looks the best of the rest to take advantage if the favourite tips over.   There seems to be something wrong with the odds if this is the outsider of the old farts (Ours, sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets).    I’d far rather have Sire de Grugy at 18/1 than Sprinter Sacre at 5/1 or 11/2.  It would be wonderful if Sprinter Sacre won, it is just the price isn’t right.  Suggest £25 e/w Sire De Grugy at 18/1.  I think thread has to be on with victor

watch it toil round in last and get pulled up now.

[TightEnd]

Going back in on this. I think the bookies seriously over rate Hibs at present. Other than the 1-0 win against Hearts their recent form is woeful. They lose a cup final in the 90th minute Sunday and are now favourite against Inverness on a Wednesday night. I mean nobody is a huge favourite for that trip.

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/football/scottish/fa-cup/inverness-v-hibernian/winner

I would be having £20 at 9/4 on Inverness at Hills.

Inverness Inverness v Hibernian Winner
23/10
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £66.00

[TightEnd]

Gonna recommend one that may get punted later.

Cantlow used to be a pretty useful handicapper that never quite achieved what he promised, but reached a mark of 151.

He completely lost his way with Paul Webber, and has now moved to the Horse Whisperer, Enda Bolger.

AT first sight, he appeared to have rekindled his enthusiasm, as he ran a cracking first race over the X Country stuff at Punchestown, back in January.

Its a big step up to this race, but in his pomp, he would happily have mixed it with these boys, and I suspect he has only progressed since his first effort.

with the Green and Gold colours likely to be in good spirits after More Of That wins, This could be punted, as I have heard plenty of quiet whispers for him as the preview evenings have gone on.

Suggest a little interest of £15 ew at 20-1 with Coral or Hils  4.10 Chelts

note hills is 1/5 1,2,3 not 1/4 so don't go there

Cantlow Cheltenham 16:10 Winner
20/1 Each Way (3 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £30.00
Potential Returns: £405.00

[TightEnd]

Stan James, so limited the amount of people who can get on

Samuel Badree most economical bowler at 7/2 looks more than fair. Career T20I econ rate of 5.39, career T20 econ rate of 5.41. He's 2nd favourite to Rashid (7.72/7.37). Other 4 bolwers in the market are seamers who's economy rate is high as they bowl during the powerplay/at the death and their role in the side is normally to take wickets rather than keep the runs down. Badree is a defensive bowler (only taken 127 wickets in 129 T20 games) and will be concentrating on containment.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/west-indies-v-england/most-economical-bowler

Does Fred want a tenner?

yup go on, thank you

[tikay]

Plenty of kindly folks are putting Cheltenham bets on for Fred.

Generally, we settle up month end, but I'm happy to pay immediately, or end of the week when the dust has settled. Just send me a PM if you want settlement.

TY, TY.

[Mark_Porter]

Stan James, so limited the amount of people who can get on

Samuel Badree most economical bowler at 7/2 looks more than fair. Career T20I econ rate of 5.39, career T20 econ rate of 5.41. He's 2nd favourite to Rashid (7.72/7.37). Other 4 bolwers in the market are seamers who's economy rate is high as they bowl during the powerplay/at the death and their role in the side is normally to take wickets rather than keep the runs down. Badree is a defensive bowler (only taken 127 wickets in 129 T20 games) and will be concentrating on containment.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/west-indies-v-england/most-economical-bowler

Does Fred want a tenner?

yup go on, thank you

Booked. Any more help needed with then will keep an eye out.

[TightEnd]

3.30 This one is a bit controversial.  It seems the concensus view amongst punters that the old guard are rubbish now.  I was talking to Neil about this one on Saturday.  He feels that Sire De Grugy is on a downward path and needs soft.  I don’t really see it and he seems solid enough.  He might be a few pounds off his best, but still seems capable of running a good race and seems perennially underated.  9/2 a place here seems more than reasonable, and ours looks the best of the rest to take advantage if the favourite tips over.   There seems to be something wrong with the odds if this is the outsider of the old farts (Ours, sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets).    I’d far rather have Sire de Grugy at 18/1 than Sprinter Sacre at 5/1 or 11/2.  It would be wonderful if Sprinter Sacre won, it is just the price isn’t right.  Suggest £25 e/w Sire De Grugy at 18/1.  I think thread has to be on with victor

watch it toil round in last and get pulled up now.

oh

one of the first names crossed off my list, which i suppose is a recommendation in itself :-)

Sire De Grugy Cheltenham 15:30 Winner
18/1 Each Way (3 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £612.50

[Doobs]

shame the cross country is only 3 places with everybody, think that means we should really just go win only, though there isn't much in it.

Any currency has been lumping weight round these cross country handicaps, and now it is level weights I think he must be a bet.  In particular he was very close to Josies orders a couple of races ago giving tons of weight and is now three times the price.  Suggest £25 win only Any currency with hills mobile at 11/1.  That way if he places 2nd at least we get something back.

I heard a funny tale about Diego Du Charmil (16.50) at the weekend.  Allegedly, some famous trainer opened an account in his own name and his first bet on this horse at 16/1.  Hence the price is now less than half that price, so we are a bit late for that.

Jaleo looks to have a low enough weight and is relatively unexposed.  Suggest £25 e/w Jaleo with Hills mobile at 12/1 (hills are a quarter first 4, I checked!).

that is it for me for now

[TightEnd]

tikay can you please sort the sportingbet pm?

[TightEnd]

Seeyouatmidnight Cheltenham 14:10 Winner
12/1 Each Way (3 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £425.00

[TightEnd]

sorry, going to have to be quick today.

Hills seem to completely disagree with me in the first two and are above betfair on both.

Suggest £50 win only on hills mobile on Yorkhill 11/4 (13.30) and No More Heroes 3/1 (14.10).  In each case I think there is precious little between the favourites so have gone for the bigger priced horse.  Hills have then let us get bigger than betfair and given us a free bet on 2nd (albeit limitted to £25).

 

both of these are on £50 at 3-1 each, wh mobile

[tikay]

tikay can you please sort the sportingbet pm?

I don't have a PM about SportingBet, but I guess it needs funding, as someone plundered it yesterday?

Will top it up in the next 5 minutes.

[BigAdz]

3.30 This one is a bit controversial.  It seems the concensus view amongst punters that the old guard are rubbish now.  I was talking to Neil about this one on Saturday.  He feels that Sire De Grugy is on a downward path and needs soft.  I don’t really see it and he seems solid enough.  He might be a few pounds off his best, but still seems capable of running a good race and seems perennially underated.  9/2 a place here seems more than reasonable, and ours looks the best of the rest to take advantage if the favourite tips over.   There seems to be something wrong with the odds if this is the outsider of the old farts (Ours, sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets).    I’d far rather have Sire de Grugy at 18/1 than Sprinter Sacre at 5/1 or 11/2.  It would be wonderful if Sprinter Sacre won, it is just the price isn’t right.  Suggest £25 e/w Sire De Grugy at 18/1.  I think thread has to be on with victor

watch it toil round in last and get pulled up now.

oh

one of the first names crossed off my list, which i suppose is a recommendation in itself :-)

Sire De Grugy Cheltenham 15:30 Winner
18/1 Each Way (3 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £612.50

Easily beaten by Bullets last year, and a soft ground horse. Looks a far far stronger race than when 4th last year in similar conditions against far lesser oppo. I'm with Neil and Tighty.

That should see it romp home!!!