Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Magnus Carlsen has a film coming out about him soon. He was followed around for the last 10 years by a documentary maker. Here's the trailer. Who knew chess was so exciting and dramatic? (Everyone obviously)



A couple of photos to finish this chess thing off, then, as we are quiet:

Click to see full-size image.

Last year's challenger, Vishy Anand, congratulates Karjakin.

Click to see full-size image.

Karjakin answers questions for the assembled press.

Here is the video.



Karjakin has a profound stammer but he's used to talking to the press and the press are used to talking to him. Indian Shreevesy gets his questions in from about 4:55.

"Seconds" are nothing to do with dinner; they're the assistants top players have to help with their practice and coaching. More like sparring partners. It's often the subject of speculation and there is usually one or more the players like to keep quiet about, in case there's a clue as to what they're preparing. If you were bringing in Ricky Hatton as your coach, your opponent would expect you to be practicing being more aggressive. Floyd Mayweather might be more about head movement and so on. This applies to chess, too.

Thanks for that, Tal, really enjoyed listening to him, in fact, I've loved this whole Chess bet, you've made it really interesting thanks to all the reports. In EVERY sense it was value, & it really was tremendous fun from start to end. More of the same, please. I'd prefer to win, obv, but its not the be all & end all to me, I probably spent £10 or £20 or whatever, but it was money well-spent afaic. 

[Tal]

£20, yup.

The markets generally have unpleasant overrounds, so any value - perceived or otherwise - is going to be marginal. There's an argument I'm sure that we shouldn't have £20 bets with the size of Fred's notional bankroll, but these sort of bets are as much about a bit of fun in an unusual event as about raw P&L, so there's as much to be gained in that respect from a £20 as a £50 bet. Still felt like the best bet in the field anyway, against the prices quoted at the time. Nice to get 13 rounds of value out of it, too.

[horseplayer]

http://www.thefa.com/news/governance/2016/mar/martin-demichelis-charged

It appears demi agrees with arb about lolvalue in the premier league

[tikay]

£20, yup.

The markets generally have unpleasant overrounds, so any value - perceived or otherwise - is going to be marginal. There's an argument I'm sure that we shouldn't have £20 bets with the size of Fred's notional bankroll, but these sort of bets are as much about a bit of fun in an unusual event as about raw P&L, so there's as much to be gained in that respect from a £20 as a £50 bet. Still felt like the best bet in the field anyway, against the prices quoted at the time. Nice to get 13 rounds of value out of it, too.

Exactly that. FWIW, I don't subscribe at all to the notion we should bet bigger just because we CAN, or because he have a 'roll that allows us to.

We should bet for fun, no more no less.

We do need to keep it real, & have some serious (relatively) bets to sustain things, but for me, it's the fun bets that make it worthwhile, without them I'd lose interest. 

[exstream]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/wwe/wwe-wrestlemania-32/which-match-will-be-the-last-of-the-night

max bet on heavyweight championship

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/wwe/wwe-wrestlemania-32/which-match-will-be-the-last-of-the-night

max bet on heavyweight championship

why?

(can't use bwin, but why?)

[Rod Paradise]

Looks foul on the Thames. Women's race is brutal. We must be on if it's like that in 50 minutes.

It's that bad, could it not go past the 19 mins? 14/1 on Corals.

Just about to post!

Women were 2 mins 2 seconds slower than last year. They took a very wide line twice (to avoid the rotten waters) so covered more distance.

I've been restricted to £7. Good luck, Fred! Definitely a bet tho.

Managed £10, if the thread wants a £5er of that as a cover bet more than welcome for the fun (and funds) I've has since discovering it a couple of weeks back.

Morning Rod,

Sorry for the late reply, I'm extremely busy elsewhere right now.

Do I owe you any money for this? If so, let me know & I'll sort it.

Really pleased to hear you are enjoying Fred, that's the WHOLE idea, which, sadly, is something that many don't seem to grasp.

It gets a little warm in here at times, but as one who used to moderate the football threads back in the day, I'm pretty sure it'll be water off a duck's back to you.

Have you had a Recommend placed by Fred yet? You need to, to join the club, so to speak.

I'm not going to worry about a fiver, especially as I'd £40 on the 18:00-18:59 minutes at 2-1. Fred covered the fiver easily.

I see the well considered & researched tips & I'm struggling to match them. Only inside info I get is on SPFL U20's league (a couple of mates have kids playing in it), 365 do run a book, but had 2 up, one down since xmas on it at not great odds. If something comes up I'll bring it to Fred though.

Was trying to find odds on Deila still being Celtic manager next season ( despite  lots on his back) - but not had any joy.

[PokerBroker]

Was trying to find odds on Deila still being Celtic manager next season ( despite  lots on his back) - but not had any joy.

What price would you make this?   

My feeling as it is unlikely to be the case, I hate to be on his back, because he seems like a decent fella, typical of Peter Lawell to take the cheap option - which may mean Delia staying.   The concern though has to be the return of the Govan Grovellers.   My opinion is Celtic need to be going into next season on a high, and that often comes from a new manager. 

I'd be against Stubbs - I don't think he has done enough yet to warrant the job and I don't like going backwards so would rule out Lennon.   I'm not sure if Michael O'Neil has the mental fortitude to deal with what would come his way if he walked away from NI.  Rumour is Moyes is a shoe in for Villa.   So the options aren't too great.   

Not sure how the guys price these things up but I would work on the assumption that this is literally a coin flip so does that make it 10/11 both ways?

[Rod Paradise]

Was trying to find odds on Deila still being Celtic manager next season ( despite  lots on his back) - but not had any joy.

What price would you make this?   

My feeling as it is unlikely to be the case, I hate to be on his back, because he seems like a decent fella, typical of Peter Lawell to take the cheap option - which may mean Delia staying.   The concern though has to be the return of the Govan Grovellers.   My opinion is Celtic need to be going into next season on a high, and that often comes from a new manager. 

I'd be against Stubbs - I don't think he has done enough yet to warrant the job and I don't like going backwards so would rule out Lennon.   I'm not sure if Michael O'Neil has the mental fortitude to deal with what would come his way if he walked away from NI.  Rumour is Moyes is a shoe in for Villa.   So the options aren't too great.   

Not sure how the guys price these things up but I would work on the assumption that this is literally a coin flip so does that make it 10/11 both ways?

I think there's a fair chance he'll still be in charge, a few reasons (all IMHO of course):

• He's succeeding in a lot of the board's aims, (lower spending, bringing through or improving players eg Biton, McGregor, Rogic, Tierney, even Griffiths, and he's not on a huge wage
• As you say, not a great amount of options.
• He's a clever man, last time he was under pressure he got the away support onside & the home support followed. The last couple of away games you could see the team on orders to show appreciation of support, then the reintroduction of the roar. He's working on turning round the press driven negativity

I'd take a bet at evens I reckon.

I do think there's some imperatives for him (beyond winning league and cup).
Getting some of his buys fit, Simunovic looked good to me even playing with a broken bone in his foot, Janko was looking good before his injury and Lustig isn't the player he was sadly, replacing him will help the defence.
Find a striking option.
Learn to take on the press negativity, show a bit more passion during games & don't accept 'honest mistakes' as easily.

[nellberg]

Again no good for Fred as it's 365

Batsman matches (most runs) Guptill to beat Roy 10/11. Guptill is a quality T20 player, averages 35 in T20I's. In good form, recent scores of 80, 39, 6, 42, 87*, 2, 63, 58, 60 and 42. I'm not convinced by Roy, after 12 T20I's he averages 17. Recent scores 42, 5, 43, 15, 9, 15, 0, 29, 9 and 11. Coral have same bet with Guptill giving up 5.5 runs, as a straight shootout Guptill looks good value.

[Rod Paradise]

Again no good for Fred as it's 365

Batsman matches (most runs) Guptill to beat Roy 10/11. Guptill is a quality T20 player, averages 35 in T20I's. In good form, recent scores of 80, 39, 6, 42, 87*, 2, 63, 58, 60 and 42. I'm not convinced by Roy, after 12 T20I's he averages 17. Recent scores 42, 5, 43, 15, 9, 15, 0, 29, 9 and 11. Coral have same bet with Guptill giving up 5.5 runs, as a straight shootout Guptill looks good value.

I've 365 - can go up to £20 (that's what's in the acc).

[exstream]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/wwe/wwe-wrestlemania-32/which-match-will-be-the-last-of-the-night

max bet on heavyweight championship

why?

(can't use bwin, but why?)

Always is and no way will they want the backlash from the fans from the title fight going into another fight, they'll end the night on it.

[exstream]

Who wins the league next season?

New manager at City, may not even make the champions league, would be awful for them, Kompany/Toure(spine?) going? Still the questionable defence and if going to sign lots of players, may need time to gel.
Man United, lol.
Chelsea, lots of talk about goalkeeper leaving, Terry gone, new manager still not announced, Hazard still awful, one striker?
Same old Arsenal.

Or the great and constantly improving Spurs side, most solid in defence, top scorer in league, class midfield. Who reckons Spurs a big price?

[exstream]

I know I know, premier league market odds are never wrong but

Leicester away to Sunderland 23/20
Arsenal away to West Ham 19/20

seems weird to me

[PokerBroker]

I think Man City are a winner next year.