Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Tomorrow is April 10th

County Championship cricket starts

the scene today at one of the venues, Chelmsford, is as follows

Click to see full-size image.

three games per division this week are

Surrey 5/4 at Notts
Warwicks 8/13 at Hampshire
Somerset 6/5 at Durham

Gloucs 7/4 at Essex
Sussex 8/15 at Northants
Kent 6/5 at Worcester

I have quoted away team prices for a reason, because the ECB in their wisdom introduced a very important change to the playing conditions this year in an attempt to try to ensure better pitches

i wrote the following yesterday

"For the County Championship, the there will not be a mandatory toss for games. The away captain will decide whether to bowl or not, as the ECB attempts to ensure decent pitches (and long term promote spin bowling).

"The visiting captain will be offered the opportunity of bowling first. If he declines, the toss will take place as normal. But if he accepts, there will be no toss."

The home team cannot now risk preparing bowler friendly pitches. In addition to the risk of being stuck in by an away captain there are now swingeing penalties for preparing unfit pitches including forfeitng games. All this points to good batting pitches and long seasons ahead for bowling county Pro"

Now thats all well and fine in june and july but on the 10th April pitches are going to be spicy anyway because of overhead conditions. Fresh pitches at the start of the season, difficult batting conditions

A lot of away captains tomorrow are going to shake hands and say "we will have a bowl" and there is nothing the home team can do about it. Once pitches firm up, the weather is better etc later in the season the new rule is going to work as intended but in the early months of the season its not really going to work as intended 

This introduces quite a skew to potential results early season in favour of away sides assuming they take advantage of the conditions

Some tomorrow, Sussex (strong favourites to win div 2) and warwicks (away at relegation favourites Hampshire) are already short odds on. nothing to go at

but for example somerset travel to durham (its tough to bat there in august, let alone April) at odds against. Surrey are odds against at Notts, and it swings a lot at trent bridge if the overheads are right

in div 2 chelmsford was a seamers paradise last year (essex would typically prepare something that looked like a vietnamese rice paddy and then pray to the gods of eastern england that they won the toss), and gloucs are odds against. Worcester's new road spends the winter underwater, the ground is right by the river and race-course. it normally dries out by mid season but batting there first in april? no thanks

So we have four away dogs who are going to have a bias in their favour, by virtue of there being no toss.

I think you could do worse than consider the following, with a filter of only wanting away dogs for value in april, and see if the impact of the away side having the choice to bowl first is the skew i think it might be

Surrey 5/4 at Notts
Somerset 6/5 at Durham
Gloucs 7/4 at Essex
Kent 6/5 at Worcester

ideal for small stakes accas (only small stakes, as weather affected draws have to be a possibility)

Presumably for spread inclined punters selling the 1st innings supremacies are also of interest so you can get with the away sides with a head start?

we are basically looking for away teams to win the toss, bowl, and knock over the home team for 250 or less and then as the pitches even out go past them, so without knowing the details of the spread markets in detail your idea sounds about right

importantly its only for early or late season matches (9 of the 16 county championship matches per team on the schedule are april,may and september ) when the weather should be tricky, and worth watching closely to see if and when pitches are much better, suiting spin etc as that would be the trigger for sides to want to bat first, bowl last

[doubleup]

I couldn't care less whether you think i am right or not

rofl

Once a year punters don't even know the Betfair exchange place market exists.  Shrewd punters do know it exists and if there was huge value at the top of the market they would be hammering it.

The explanation is that the prices at the top of the market are more or less correct.  Probably because of the enormous field and the various random occurrences that can affect a selection.

That isn't to say that a specific horse might have form characteristics that might make it less likely to fall victim to such an occurrence.

You are a fan of betfair never being wrong i assume so do you make Many Clouds 33/1 to come 2nd, 3rd or 4th then as Doobs says?  If you don't you would have to accept that markets can be, and are, distorted by sheer weight of mug money like is the case here?  I will happily back MC at 33/1 to finish in each of those 3 positions if you want to lay it and pay 5% commission to you on any winning bets to give you your margin for being a good sport.

If I was to make a guess at its place profile, I would think it would be more like 9% first, 7% second and 1-2% third and fourth.  ie if it gets in the finish it will be first or second.

and no I wont give you 50-1 3rd or 4th. I never bet that much odds on for obvious variance reasons.


btw I didn't say betfair can never be wrong, I just strongly disagree with your explanation for any errors in this case.

I would suggest you don't bet much odds on because you are clueless at pricing up big odds on shots and would do your cash very quickly if you think MC is anywhere near a 50/1 poke to come 3rd or 4th.

Please feel free to give your explanations then for the 'errors'.    Easy to disagree with mine but you haven't given any alternative explanations.

errors in place markets are usually due to consistency issues, if there is an error in the price of many clouds it would be due to its likelihood to make it round the course.  It wouldn't be due to someone's granny opening up a Betfair exchange account and putting £10 on a 20-1 shot to place.

[peejaytwo]

Dunno if its already been mentioned but Lolblokes are 8/1 for JP Mac to be the winning owner.
Def value if you can.

[TightEnd]

Dunno if its already been mentioned but Lolblokes are 8/1 for JP Mac to be the winning owner.
Def value if you can.

why is this?

how many has he got of the 39?

[peejaytwo]

Gilgamboa 50/1
Shutthefrontfoor 12/1
Gallant Oscar 18/1
Pendra 100/1

just maths really, gives a couple of options.

[Doobs]

I couldn't care less whether you think i am right or not

rofl

Once a year punters don't even know the Betfair exchange place market exists.  Shrewd punters do know it exists and if there was huge value at the top of the market they would be hammering it.

The explanation is that the prices at the top of the market are more or less correct.  Probably because of the enormous field and the various random occurrences that can affect a selection.

That isn't to say that a specific horse might have form characteristics that might make it less likely to fall victim to such an occurrence.

You are a fan of betfair never being wrong i assume so do you make Many Clouds 33/1 to come 2nd, 3rd or 4th then as Doobs says?  If you don't you would have to accept that markets can be, and are, distorted by sheer weight of mug money like is the case here?  I will happily back MC at 33/1 to finish in each of those 3 positions if you want to lay it and pay 5% commission to you on any winning bets to give you your margin for being a good sport.

If I was to make a guess at its place profile, I would think it would be more like 9% first, 7% second and 1-2% third and fourth.  ie if it gets in the finish it will be first or second.

and no I wont give you 50-1 3rd or 4th. I never bet that much odds on for obvious variance reasons.


btw I didn't say betfair can never be wrong, I just strongly disagree with your explanation for any errors in this case.

I would suggest you don't bet much odds on because you are clueless at pricing up big odds on shots and would do your cash very quickly if you think MC is anywhere near a 50/1 poke to come 3rd or 4th.

Please feel free to give your explanations then for the 'errors'.    Easy to disagree with mine but you haven't given any alternative explanations.

errors in place markets are usually due to consistency issues, if there is an error in the price of many clouds it would be due to its likelihood to make it round the course.  It wouldn't be due to someone's granny opening up a Betfair exchange account and putting £10 on a 20-1 shot to place.

I don't know why it is happening and don't really need to explain it.  Maybe some huge betting syndicate have produced a new model that isn't producing sensible results.  What I see now is that Arbboy, Chompy and neil Channing all seem to agree with me.  I'd be happy if just one of them did.

Distributions don't go .1,.1, .02, 0.02.  It will tend to 0.025 in the middle or close, but the difference between 2nd and 3rd isn't going to be anything like as steep.  Maybe 0.09, 0.06, 0.05, 0.04 feels a possible?  That is nearer 3/1 first 4 and not the 9/2 we have taken.  

Anyway no point arguing, my money is where my mouth is, as is Neil's.  Good luck the layers.  

[arbboy]

I couldn't care less whether you think i am right or not

rofl

Once a year punters don't even know the Betfair exchange place market exists.  Shrewd punters do know it exists and if there was huge value at the top of the market they would be hammering it.

The explanation is that the prices at the top of the market are more or less correct.  Probably because of the enormous field and the various random occurrences that can affect a selection.

That isn't to say that a specific horse might have form characteristics that might make it less likely to fall victim to such an occurrence.

You are a fan of betfair never being wrong i assume so do you make Many Clouds 33/1 to come 2nd, 3rd or 4th then as Doobs says?  If you don't you would have to accept that markets can be, and are, distorted by sheer weight of mug money like is the case here?  I will happily back MC at 33/1 to finish in each of those 3 positions if you want to lay it and pay 5% commission to you on any winning bets to give you your margin for being a good sport.

If I was to make a guess at its place profile, I would think it would be more like 9% first, 7% second and 1-2% third and fourth.  ie if it gets in the finish it will be first or second.

and no I wont give you 50-1 3rd or 4th. I never bet that much odds on for obvious variance reasons.


btw I didn't say betfair can never be wrong, I just strongly disagree with your explanation for any errors in this case.

I would suggest you don't bet much odds on because you are clueless at pricing up big odds on shots and would do your cash very quickly if you think MC is anywhere near a 50/1 poke to come 3rd or 4th.

Please feel free to give your explanations then for the 'errors'.    Easy to disagree with mine but you haven't given any alternative explanations.

errors in place markets are usually due to consistency issues, if there is an error in the price of many clouds it would be due to its likelihood to make it round the course.  It wouldn't be due to someone's granny opening up a Betfair exchange account and putting £10 on a 20-1 shot to place.

You are very blinkered by what i consider once a year punters whose money finds its way into the bf markets to distort them.  Is isn't quite as simple as Grannie signing up today.  There will be tens of thousands of bf exchange punters who never bet on horse racing day to day.  They specialize in one or two sports successfully and will have a bet today on the national in all likelihood like most people will.  Equally these bf account holders will more than likely sell bf's better prices to their friends in the pub and offer to put their bets on for them on their account sucking more once a year casual money into the system.  On top of this there will be hundreds of once a year punters who have had betfair accounts for years and will come back again today for their national bets.

Place markets are also massively distorted by arbers money way more than win markets due to the out of date e/w system.  This doesn't explain why the situation happening today however but as a general rule.

[TightEnd]

JP McManus Aintree 17:15 Winning Owner
8/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £90.00

[Doobs]

Many Clouds 4.7/4.8 now the top 4.
Silvianico Conte now 6.8/7.  As stated earlier, we could get 8.8 this morning.

Win prices haven't changed much.  It was all a bit odd, but seems to have corrected.

[arbboy]

There is also the counter argument that is very valid that the 9/2 to place could be correct and the sheer weight of ante post money/on the day money is keeping MC at 10/1 when it is a proper 20/1 poke on the form book.  Unlikely but possible.  Some good form judges/experts at picking winners were telling the public he was going to go off 5/1 earlier in the week so a lot of books could be totally filled in with MC and keep betting it back to keep the SP lower than it should be.

[JoeBeevers]

Many Clouds 4.7/4.8 now the top 4.
Silvianico Conte now 6.8/7.  As stated earlier, we could get 8.8 this morning.

Win prices haven't changed much.  It was all a bit odd, but seems to have corrected.

Quite simply more layers than backers in the market earlier, now a few more backers arriving. Market to 380% was big, now 395.9%. It is possible there are only 2 or 3 winners don't forget.

Nevertheless Doobs we have some great bets. 9/2+ MC first four was just silly.

[ripple11]

Many Clouds 4.7/4.8 now the top 4.
Silvianico Conte now 6.8/7.  As stated earlier, we could get 8.8 this morning.

Win prices haven't changed much.  It was all a bit odd, but seems to have corrected.

Quite simply more layers than backers in the market earlier, now a few more backers arriving. Market to 380% was big, now 395.9%. It is possible there are only 2 or 3 winners don't forget.

Nevertheless Doobs we have some great bets. 9/2+ MC first four was just silly.

Thanks guys for pointing this out.
Had a tickle on Samuri as well

[Chompy]

I know this year's race is a furlong shorter, but the ground's softer and Shutthefrontdoor won't stay.

He didn't stay last year under a perfect ride and he won't stay this year. Imo.

Surprised he's as short as he is given a poor prep-run and, bearing in mind the late drift last year, I'd be amazed if he starts any shorter than the current 13. Looks a good trade to me.

[JohnCharver]

awful conditions at aintree now

[tikay]

Bugger. I say, bugger.

I had one job........

That bet is CANCELLED, I will take it myself, "Off-Fred".

I'll try again now.....

no need, save yourself some clicks if you see this, the price has gone.

one of those things.

OK, I'll not bother, I'd probably misclick again if I did.

Fingers crossed for Highest Opening Partnership, then....

It is off-thread though.

Haha, Simmons and Rohit is a good opening partnership, so you should have a fair sweat. Let's hope for KP out early, to help both bets

Be the greatest sweat ever if this one wins now, Mumbai's first wicket fell at 8, I believe........