Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

The biggest thing the spreadsheet should have a column for is P+L for these 'loltrading/greening up/giving it away bets'.  I would be very interested to see what the P+L is on these types of bets.  Think it would be pretty obvious it will be dragging down our 5% roi long term.  I would be amazed if we are winning on them, never mind returning 5% on them.  We constantly pay an insurance premium every time we do this to insure ourselves against something we are comfortably rolled to absorb but keep paying the insurance premiums.  Mindless imo of course.

The biggest way to increase variance on a betting/investment portfolio is to not stake consistently across the portfolio which is exactly what fred currently does to incredible extremes.

[typhoon13]

With Sunderland looking the most likely of the three teams to stay up, is it worth laying back our £200 at 1.8 on Betfair?

Recommendation with the bet proposer really, arbboy.

all other views of course welcome

You'd find a way to back tails @ 10/11 if you'd managed to grab some heads @ 6/4.  Seems as good a way of describing it as any for me.  

It's all 2012 all over again and the basics of successful punting we have been through a zillion times before which were ironed out in the first few months of fred.  Won't get angry this time about going over the old ground again and again.  It does get a bit tedious listening to people suggesting to make the same mistakes time and time again but i will try and button my lip.

If someone else wants to back Sunderland at 5/4 to stay up for fred go for it.  Makes no difference what happened last summer when i put up Sunderland at 9/4 to go down.  If people think there are a bet stick it up.  Pretty sure without my £200 sitting on the spreadsheet there wouldn't be any discussion at all of backing Sunderland at 5/4 to stay up this morning.  Nobody thinks 5/4 is a wrong price and gives us any edge to invest in yet people think we should be having our biggest bet of the month on this?

We have 2% of bankroll on Sunderland to go down and 2% of our bankroll on Wigan to win the league.  These are not 'whopping' sized bets.  They are totally normal sized bets for our bankroll.   There is no need to 'loltrade/give it away' whatever you want to call it.  2% of bankroll bets are just standard strong bets where we have a decent edge.  If everyone else bet within proper bankroll amounts then these bets wouldn't be causing such huge 'pressure' on the monthly results to even need to be discussing 'loltrading' them away.

I have said all this before though and is the reason why i don't put up bets anymore because, by principle, i won't bet 'wrong' amounts but it just adds too much pressure to everyone's obsession with making a profit each and every month.  We shouldn't be making a profit every month based on our tiny sample of bets every month if we are staking properly.  There should be months where we are doing our nuts.  We only historically have a 5% edge.  I doubt the edge is that big any more given the more recreational basis (most of the original fred pro's don't post now before someone posts that i think everyone left are lolmugs) of the vast majority of the betting turnover compared to the early days and the fact it is harder getting on at the best price/reduction in number of accounts we have available.

A joy to read arbs

[Chompy]

You don't think I should have traded the Wigan position arb?

[arbboy]

You don't think I should have traded the Wigan position arb?

I don't think we should trade any position (just bet smaller in the first place if the original bet is too big - similar to don't cash out on the last leg of an acca just don't put the last leg of the acca on the betting slip in the first place to save yourself £k's hitting that cash out button) unless we have had well in excess of 5% of our bankroll on a bet specifically just to get a better price longer term for 5% or less of our roll because we are 100% sure the price will shortern and we can just get a max bet (5% of roll) effectively at a bigger price.  Making a real fuck up of what i am trying to explain but you know the sort of thing i mean chompy because you have suggested before having £2k or £1k on something knowing it will be half the price in a week ante post.  Then we lay back half of it shorter so we still have our max bet (£500) on the selection just at an even bigger price than what we have backed it at.

You haven't 'traded' the Wigan position really.  Walsall can still win and we do our nuts both ways.  We have just backed Wigan/Burton coupled at a very short price effectively to win the league.

Obviously you are a successful punter and you can choose to do whatever you want.  Without the Wigan bet though you never suggest having £300 on Burton at 4/5 so that's where the logic just fails me.

[TightEnd]

arbboy i would rather you still put bets up. lots of us have done very well out of them

the fact is that the vast majority of recreational posters simply aren't happy putting up £150-300 recommends. nothing to do with an ideal percentage of a now notional bankroll (and that bankroll is notional not a sum of money sitting there). its the absolute monetary amount that they wouldn't feel comfortable tikay losing. eg Hector.

the thread at its best can cater for bets from pros and recreationals, its a shame if we can't achieve that balance

[tikay]

With Sunderland looking the most likely of the three teams to stay up, is it worth laying back our £200 at 1.8 on Betfair?

Recommendation with the bet proposer really, arbboy.

all other views of course welcome

You'd find a way to back tails @ 10/11 if you'd managed to grab some heads @ 6/4.  Seems as good a way of describing it as any for me.  

It's all 2012 all over again and the basics of successful punting we have been through a zillion times before which were ironed out in the first few months of fred.  Won't get angry this time about going over the old ground again and again.  It does get a bit tedious listening to people suggesting to make the same mistakes time and time again but i will try and button my lip.

If someone else wants to back Sunderland at 5/4 to stay up for fred go for it.  Makes no difference what happened last summer when i put up Sunderland at 9/4 to go down.  If people think there are a bet stick it up.  Pretty sure without my £200 sitting on the spreadsheet there wouldn't be any discussion at all of backing Sunderland at 5/4 to stay up this morning.  Nobody thinks 5/4 is a wrong price and gives us any edge to invest in yet people think we should be having our biggest bet of the month on this?

We have 2% of bankroll on Sunderland to go down and 2% of our bankroll on Wigan to win the league.  These are not 'whopping' sized bets.  They are totally normal sized bets for our bankroll.   There is no need to 'loltrade/give it away' whatever you want to call it.  2% of bankroll bets are just standard strong bets where we have a decent edge.  If everyone else bet within proper bankroll amounts then these bets wouldn't be causing such huge 'pressure' on the monthly results to even need to be discussing 'loltrading' them away.

I have said all this before though and is the reason why i don't put up bets anymore because, by principle, i won't bet 'wrong' amounts but it just adds too much pressure to everyone's obsession with making a profit each and every month.  We shouldn't be making a profit every month based on our tiny sample of bets every month if we are staking properly.  There should be months where we are doing our nuts.  We only historically have a 5% edge.  I doubt the edge is that big any more given the more recreational basis (most of the original fred pro's don't post now before someone posts that i think everyone left are lolmugs) of the vast majority of the betting turnover compared to the early days and the fact it is harder getting on at the best price/reduction in number of accounts we have available.

1 person made a suggestion to reverse the Sunderland bet, and we want people to make suggestions. Reviewing & discussing those suggestions is how we learn. There should be no reason why people should not ask questions, or think out loud, it's good for everyone.

We don't have an obsession with short term profits, & never have. The monthly numbers are what oils the wheels of conversation, discussion & keeping people interested & motivated, & is a hook for the Daily & Monthly Reports, which the vast number of readers really enjoy. No more, no less. Standard social skills.

"wrong amounts", as in tiddlearse? That won't change. It's supposed to be an inclusive fun thread, where we have a little fun & make a few shillings as we go along. The vast majority of our regulars here would not stick up bets if they thought that on their say so, I was going to be risking what are, by the standards of most of us, "whopping" bets. People like, say hector, & many others, would simply stop placing Recommends up, they just would. The occasional "big" bet is fine, but I simply don't want to be betting bigger on a regular basis, no matter what the bankroll is. I'm not a pro punter, & I'm not addicted to punting. Just wanna have some fun along the way, enjoy the bants, & help the blonde traffic numbers. 

If someone else wants to take over the thread, so that bets can be made for the theoretical "correct" amounts, that's 100% fine by me, & I mean that, I would wish them well.

Alternatively, you, or anyone else, can start their own punting thread, Tips for Big Boys, & I'm sure it would be very popular. It won't happen though, because it lacks the essence of what we try to do here - just recreational guys having some fun.

Please remember something. I quit punting in around 2002, having punted every day for some 35 years, & had never bet again, not once, until Camel started this thread. I was addicted to punting, which was a bad, bad, thing. When Camel suggested the thread, I was filled with horror & fear that I'd become addicted again to punting. It scares the life out of me, the fear of being addicted to it. I simply don't want punting addiction in my life again. Can you not see what a big thing that fear is to me? I have an addictive personality, & I don't want to go down that road again in the autumn of my life, I just want to go along carefree & happy.

The amounts that others bet is fine by me. You know, "live & let live". I won't be berating them or mocking them.   

I, & many others, really enjoy the thread, & bets of £20, £30 & £40 are still great fun, they tick our boxes for "fun". And I don't mind occasional "whoppers", especially long term ones from good pros & wiser souls than me. But I'm never going to be betting the "correct" size for our bankroll, & nobody is going to pressurise me into doing so. We'd best realise this now.

Let's start where this reply began - ONE person made a suggestion. He, or anyone else, is entitled to make any suggestion.

[tikay]

arbboy i would rather you still put bets up. lots of us have done very well out of them

the fact is that the vast majority of recreational posters simply aren't happy putting up £150-300 recommends. nothing to do with an ideal percentage of a now notional bankroll (and that bankroll is notional not a sum of money sitting there). its the absolute monetary amount that they wouldn't feel comfortable tikay losing. eg Hector.

the thread at its best can cater for bets from pros and recreationals, its a shame if we can't achieve that balance

Exactly that.

[arbboy]

With Sunderland looking the most likely of the three teams to stay up, is it worth laying back our £200 at 1.8 on Betfair?

Recommendation with the bet proposer really, arbboy.

all other views of course welcome

You'd find a way to back tails @ 10/11 if you'd managed to grab some heads @ 6/4.  Seems as good a way of describing it as any for me.  

It's all 2012 all over again and the basics of successful punting we have been through a zillion times before which were ironed out in the first few months of fred.  Won't get angry this time about going over the old ground again and again.  It does get a bit tedious listening to people suggesting to make the same mistakes time and time again but i will try and button my lip.

If someone else wants to back Sunderland at 5/4 to stay up for fred go for it.  Makes no difference what happened last summer when i put up Sunderland at 9/4 to go down.  If people think there are a bet stick it up.  Pretty sure without my £200 sitting on the spreadsheet there wouldn't be any discussion at all of backing Sunderland at 5/4 to stay up this morning.  Nobody thinks 5/4 is a wrong price and gives us any edge to invest in yet people think we should be having our biggest bet of the month on this?

We have 2% of bankroll on Sunderland to go down and 2% of our bankroll on Wigan to win the league.  These are not 'whopping' sized bets.  They are totally normal sized bets for our bankroll.   There is no need to 'loltrade/give it away' whatever you want to call it.  2% of bankroll bets are just standard strong bets where we have a decent edge.  If everyone else bet within proper bankroll amounts then these bets wouldn't be causing such huge 'pressure' on the monthly results to even need to be discussing 'loltrading' them away.

I have said all this before though and is the reason why i don't put up bets anymore because, by principle, i won't bet 'wrong' amounts but it just adds too much pressure to everyone's obsession with making a profit each and every month.  We shouldn't be making a profit every month based on our tiny sample of bets every month if we are staking properly.  There should be months where we are doing our nuts.  We only historically have a 5% edge.  I doubt the edge is that big any more given the more recreational basis (most of the original fred pro's don't post now before someone posts that i think everyone left are lolmugs) of the vast majority of the betting turnover compared to the early days and the fact it is harder getting on at the best price/reduction in number of accounts we have available.

1 person made a suggestion to reverse the Sunderland bet, and we want people to make suggestions. Reviewing & discussing those suggestions is how we learn. There should be no reason why people should not ask questions, or think out loud, it's good for everyone.

We don't have an obsession with short term profits, & never have. The monthly numbers are what oils the wheels of conversation, discussion & keeping people interested & motivated, & is a hook for the Daily & Monthly Reports, which the vast number of readers really enjoy. No more, no less. Standard social skills.

"wrong amounts", as in tiddlearse? That won't change. It's supposed to be an inclusive fun thread, where we have a little fun & make a few shillings as we go along. The vast majority of our regulars here would not stick up bets if they thought that on their say so, I was going to be risking what are, by the standards of most of us, "whopping" bets. People like, say hector, & many others, would simply stop placing Recommends up, they just would. The occasional "big" bet is fine, but I simply don't want to be betting bigger on a regular basis, no matter what the bankroll is. I'm not a pro punter, & I'm not addicted to punting. Just wanna have some fun along the way, enjoy the bants, & help the blonde traffic numbers.  

If someone else wants to take over the thread, so that bets can be made for the theoretical "correct" amounts, that's 100% fine by me, & I mean that, I would wish them well.

Alternatively, you, or anyone else, can start their own punting thread, Tips for Big Boys, & I'm sure it would be very popular. It won't happen though, because it lacks the essence of what we try to do here - just recreational guys having some fun.

Please remember something. I quit punting in around 2002, having punted every day for some 35 years, & had never bet again, not once, until Camel started this thread. I was addicted to punting, which was a bad, bad, thing. When Camel suggested the thread, I was filled with horror & fear that I'd become addicted again to punting. It scares the life out of me, the fear of being addicted to it. I simply don't want punting addiction in my life again. Can you not see what a big thing that fear is to me? I have an addictive personality, & I don't want to go down that road again in the autumn of my life, I just want to go along carefree & happy.

The amounts that others bet is fine by me. You know, "live & let live". I won't be berating them or mocking them.  

I, & many others, really enjoy the thread, & bets of £20, £30 & £40 are still great fun, they tick our boxes for "fun". And I don't mind occasional "whoppers", especially long term ones from good pros & wiser souls than me. But I'm never going to be betting the "correct" size for our bankroll, & nobody is going to pressurise me into doing so. We'd best realise this now.

Let's start where this reply began - ONE person made a suggestion. He, or anyone else, is entitled to make any suggestion.

Sure i totally get the addictive personality.  I have the same across all forms of life.  I wouldn't want to see you get addicted to punting again.  

The problem i have is everyone wanting to learn/reduce mistakes from punting/greening up/bankroll management/stake sizing which is great and a lot of people have done this over the past 4 years.  However fred keeps making the same mistakes regarding most of these so the education seems pointless if we are not going to actually carry it out in practice with our real bets/greening up/stake sizing.  People rightly will say 'why are we doing this if the correct professional way to do things is a different way?'

It would be like on PHA starting a thread saying 'i am getting implied odds of 3/1 to hit the nut flush on the river?  Should i call his all in?  There is £300 in the middle and it is £100 for me to call and hit my flush with the river card to come.  If i hit i win.  I am getting 3/1?  Call or fold?  Pads comes on and says 'obviously it is a fold because you are taking 3/1 about a 9/2 shot happening, easy fold you are setting fire to £x every time you call this shove'.  Then the guy goes ahead and makes the call anyway after receiving the expert advice from a pro he was asking for.  Pads probably won't be too keen to invest his time advising the guy in the future if his advice is going to be ignored because the guy had a feeling or fancied a spin.

[Jamier-Host]

The point about "cashing out" is fair though. If the plan is to keep it small we shouldn't ever be putting random big bets on to burn ev later when in hindsight they look a bit chunky.

[arbboy]

The point about "cashing out" is fair though. If the plan is to keep it small we shouldn't ever be putting random big bets on to burn ev later when in hindsight they look a bit chunky.

The chunky bets are not chunky.  The variance is caused by the other bets being too small. 

[fatcatstu]

I feel a bit responsible for all this stuff that is happening now, so sorry it wasnt my intention!

I am VERY much a rec better, I dont bet all the time, I just like a flutter now and again, particularly on NFL which I do alright on.

Have been following this thread for about a year now, and very much enjoy doing so.

I am well up for learning, but must confess that some of the stuff posted by the very knowledgable people on here goes flying well over my head!!!

I understand that it must be massively frustrating for the Pros on here who know what they are doing and have the likes of me bumbling about and being wrong most of the time, all I want is someone to tell me WHY I am talking gibberish, and sometimes that could be done in a kinder way.

Anyway, I have followed the tennis bet today, so I apologise in advance if Monfils loses, and will fully take the blame if he does!

[Marky147]

The point about "cashing out" is fair though. If the plan is to keep it small we shouldn't ever be putting random big bets on to burn ev later when in hindsight they look a bit chunky.

The chunky bets are not chunky.  The variance is caused by the other bets being too small. 

They are when Tikay has knocked most of that 10 large in at the patisserie

Excellent reading today, has to be said.

[Jamier-Host]

I know it's rare but when someone does agree with you, you can stop arguing

[Chompy]

A few cracking posts today.

Arb, take your points, but this is another case where you're too black and white on punting matters imo. Whatever suits the individual is right.

The Speith US open bet was placed purely as a back to lay, so the amount dropped on the lay side is kind of irrelevant. At various stages through that tournament he looked like losing too; can't quote any prices here but would guess he hit double figures more than once.

Same deal with Burton. Obv the covers now look bad bets but, when struck, 4-5 beat the machine price and was too big for a team with so many points in hand. Why can't these bets be looked at as building as a portfolio rather than cover bets?

We're now in a no-lose position thanks to backing a 1-6 shot at 8-1 down through 9-2.

Either let everything ride, green everything, freeroll everything, or mix and match. Don't see why it shouldn't be up to the individual.

Nobody would criticise you for letting the Sunderland bet ride, even though you could have got out at a very short price.

[arbboy]

I feel a bit responsible for all this stuff that is happening now, so sorry it wasnt my intention!

I am VERY much a rec better, I dont bet all the time, I just like a flutter now and again, particularly on NFL which I do alright on.

Have been following this thread for about a year now, and very much enjoy doing so.

I am well up for learning, but must confess that some of the stuff posted by the very knowledgable people on here goes flying well over my head!!!

I understand that it must be massively frustrating for the Pros on here who know what they are doing and have the likes of me bumbling about and being wrong most of the time, all I want is someone to tell me WHY I am talking gibberish, and sometimes that could be done in a kinder way.

Anyway, I have followed the tennis bet today, so I apologise in advance if Monfils loses, and will fully take the blame if he does!

My apologies for speaking to you how i did.  It wasn't called for.  I was just keen to lay Boro at 1/3 before they went off 2/5 that was all.  I like a bullish supporter who likes to bet their own team when i want to oppose them.  You sounded like you might be interested in having a chunk on them at 1/3.  Starting stuff like this off is good for the viewing figures so don't worry about that!