Tips for Tikay

[DMorgan]

The new scoring was great, it seemed like the jury votes and the public votes were vastly different. Poland 7 points from the juries and 222 from the public!

What price were Ukraine pre game?

[Chompy]

Ukraine spent most of the night around 20.

Australia and Ukraine both came from the second semi, which was stronger. Think Australia probably won that before Ukraine turned it round tonight.

Russia beat garbage and obv did much worse with the juries when the big hitters from semi 2 came in.

Carnage everywhere.

[arbboy]

Ukraine spent most of the night around 20.

Australia and Ukraine both came from the second semi, which was stronger. Think Australia probably won that before Ukraine turned it round tonight.

Russia beat garbage and obv did much worse with the juries when the big hitters from semi 2 came in.

Carnage everywhere.

Amazing how much money gets punted on probably the most corrupt coup of the year each and every year.  I appreciate why the insiders want to play.  Why do the punters who are just guessers and haven't got a clue get involved?  Is this really this big a betting heat in the modern world?

[Doobs]

Ukraine spent most of the night around 20.

Australia and Ukraine both came from the second semi, which was stronger. Think Australia probably won that before Ukraine turned it round tonight.

Russia beat garbage and obv did much worse with the juries when the big hitters from semi 2 came in.

Carnage everywhere.

Amazing how much money gets punted on probably the most corrupt coup of the year each and every year.  I appreciate why the insiders want to play.  Why do the punters who are just guessers and haven't got a clue get involved?  Is this really this big a betting heat in the modern world?

Things you win at are for experts.  Things you don't win at are for guessers. 

Ukraine not everybody's plucky underdogs after the events in Crimea?  Singer sticking 2 fingers up at Russia allegedly.  Saw a handful of early votes and it made a bit of sense to me.  I didn't like Australia racing away. I didn't get near 20/1 unfortunately.  Fwiw never saw any of the singing.

[Peter-27]

F1 bets:

Group C (Hulkenberg/Kvyat/Massa/Button) - Felipe Massa @ 3/1 with 366 - The three other drivers in this group have been struggling for pace all weekend. Massa did qualify poorly, and his car doesn't particularly suit this circuit, however he does have a better than 3/1 shot tomorrow. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/spanish-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (Grosjean/Gutierrez/Magnussen/Palmer) - Kevin Magnussen @ 7/2 with 366 - put simply, I don't think Renault are too far away from Haas on race pace. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/spanish-grand-prix/group-d

Number Of Finishers - Over 19.5 @ 13/8 with 366 - this is a track that everyone knows extremely well, so mistakes should be few and far between. The track isn't particularly mechanically demanding either. The only possible downfall of this bet is a collision on the opening lap. We actually haven't had a race this season without some degree of contact on lap one, usually multiple contacts too. I still believe 13/8 is value though. Suggest £20. For those who don't know, the grid has 22 cars in total.

Leader After First Lap - Max Verstappen @ 16/1 with 366/Hills - Price is far too high given the tendency of the Mercedes starting badly, plus the unsighted run down to turn one. Suggest £5.

[Chompy]

Ukraine spent most of the night around 20.

Australia and Ukraine both came from the second semi, which was stronger. Think Australia probably won that before Ukraine turned it round tonight.

Russia beat garbage and obv did much worse with the juries when the big hitters from semi 2 came in.

Carnage everywhere.

Amazing how much money gets punted on probably the most corrupt coup of the year each and every year.  I appreciate why the insiders want to play.  Why do the punters who are just guessers and haven't got a clue get involved?  Is this really this big a betting heat in the modern world?

Markets not as accurate this year. Aussies beat Ukraine in the second semi, with Belgium not far behind in third. No love at all for Belgium in any of the markets though.

Fair to say the win market knew that Russia had hosed up in SF1, and that Aussies beat Ukraine in SF2.

SF1 was basically a Brighton seller. Easy after the event though. A lot of burned fingers on Russia pre-race and Aussies IR.

[DropTheHammer]

Things you win at are for experts.  Things you don't win at are for guessers.

I guess in this instance he means when the outcome may already be known by some parties. The same thing could be said for next manager markets, but people love to bet because it's fun*. And the bookies don't take huge bets on these markets - did they do 'in-play', or was it just the exchange?

*This season I managed to get a small amount on a well-known manager moving to a certain club because I know the financial advisers who get to see this guy's contracts when clubs offer them to him. The price had already crashed to about 1.30 and I hoovered up the rest on Betfair but had to wait until he'd lasted 10 games before they would pay out!

[DropTheHammer]

Thanks for the F1 bets Peter, always make the races more fun to watch when I have these other sweats going on 

[TightEnd]

F1 bets:

Group C (Hulkenberg/Kvyat/Massa/Button) - Felipe Massa @ 3/1 with 366 - The three other drivers in this group have been struggling for pace all weekend. Massa did qualify poorly, and his car doesn't particularly suit this circuit, however he does have a better than 3/1 shot tomorrow. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/spanish-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (Grosjean/Gutierrez/Magnussen/Palmer) - Kevin Magnussen @ 7/2 with 366 - put simply, I don't think Renault are too far away from Haas on race pace. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/spanish-grand-prix/group-d

Number Of Finishers - Over 19.5 @ 13/8 with 366 - this is a track that everyone knows extremely well, so mistakes should be few and far between. The track isn't particularly mechanically demanding either. The only possible downfall of this bet is a collision on the opening lap. We actually haven't had a race this season without some degree of contact on lap one, usually multiple contacts too. I still believe 13/8 is value though. Suggest £20. For those who don't know, the grid has 22 cars in total.

Leader After First Lap - Max Verstappen @ 16/1 with 366/Hills - Price is far too high given the tendency of the Mercedes starting badly, plus the unsighted run down to turn one. Suggest £5.

on friday you said

"Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 5/4 with Laddybrokes and Choral. Suggest £20. There's a substantial gap between the top five teams and the rest here it seems. Force India are in that top five."

we have 4 force india related bets for today

points   perez   6/4   100
top 6   perez   6/1   10
points   hulkenberg   5/4   20
double points   force india   4/1   25

above you say that Hulkenberg is one of "The three other drivers in this group have been struggling for pace all weekend."

which is correct?

[TightEnd]

F1 bets:

Group C (Hulkenberg/Kvyat/Massa/Button) - Felipe Massa @ 3/1 with 366 - The three other drivers in this group have been struggling for pace all weekend. Massa did qualify poorly, and his car doesn't particularly suit this circuit, however he does have a better than 3/1 shot tomorrow. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/spanish-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (Grosjean/Gutierrez/Magnussen/Palmer) - Kevin Magnussen @ 7/2 with 366 - put simply, I don't think Renault are too far away from Haas on race pace. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/spanish-grand-prix/group-d

Number Of Finishers - Over 19.5 @ 13/8 with 366 - this is a track that everyone knows extremely well, so mistakes should be few and far between. The track isn't particularly mechanically demanding either. The only possible downfall of this bet is a collision on the opening lap. We actually haven't had a race this season without some degree of contact on lap one, usually multiple contacts too. I still believe 13/8 is value though. Suggest £20. For those who don't know, the grid has 22 cars in total.

Leader After First Lap - Max Verstappen @ 16/1 with 366/Hills - Price is far too high given the tendency of the Mercedes starting badly, plus the unsighted run down to turn one. Suggest £5.

the only one of these that isn't b366 is the one i can do

Max Verstappen Spanish Grand Prix Leader after 1st Lap
16/1
Total Stake: £5.00
Potential Returns: £85.00

[TightEnd]

Bets to settle today, win or lose

Premier league handicap   watford +49   15/1   50

£25 e/w is a winner

premier league season points   watford   35.5   35. 

currently on 44, home to Sunderland who might be out of the pub in time to play

SPL Top scorer   A Rooney   6/1   50

£25 e/w place should be confirmed today

Manchester United top goalscorer   martial   11/8   80

barring a rooney hat-trick, will be a winner

Bournemouth Top League Goalscorer   king   8/1   20

King is one ahead of callum wilson

top English PL scorer   Kane   11/8   100
Premier League Top Goalscorer   aguero   3/1   50



this should be confirmed on monday:

to make euro 16 squad   heaton   12/1   20

on bets for the football season placed ante-post we are currently up £525 net for the 2015-2016 season with the above to add/deduct

[TightEnd]

for chompy

Lack of any correlation between jury voting and televoting at Eurovision 2016. Correlation coefficient was....0.01!

[tikay]

"...on bets for the football season placed ante-post we are currently up £525 net for the 2015-2016 season with the above to add/deduct..."

That's good work by all, & it should increase somewhat today, all being well.

[TightEnd]

just to wrap up from yesterday

we laid off russia

we laid off limato

so the only results were

-£20 lenson panda

-£14 germany to finish above uk

UK finished 24/26. Germany finished 26/26

We are +£440 this month going into an afternoon with over a dozen bets concluding across football and F1

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=24

[tikay]

Note for dung beetle

I believe you have facilitated various football Spread Bets for us this season. Seem to recall that may have included Charlton?

Anyway, if we owe you anything, let me know the damage, & I'll settle up straight away.