Tips for Tikay

[Killerkilsby]

Most people do actually. Just a few that don't

[exstream]

I'd say majority don't for sure

[PokerBroker]

So is my 16/1 ticket still in bad shape?

Or should I just blindly back wides at Romford on a Saturday morning.

[Marky147]

So is my 16/1 ticket still in bad shape?

Or should I just blindly back wides at Romford on a Saturday morning.

Your ticket is live, which bears no relation to the previous discussions, as I'm sure you well know.

If Argue says that you should be backing wides blindly at Romford, then I'd say it's a good idea to do so.

HTH.

[Weetabix]

Stockholm is interesting.  Bottom half is stacked with the likely winner, dimitrov at 4/1 looks a terrible price with his potential route. Zverev 3/1 as a max bet £250 e/w anyone?  Won his first title a few weeks ago and this is his fav surface. With Monfils going out it has cleared a path for him.  A proper bet hey!   Any opinions?

[baldock92]

So is my 16/1 ticket still in bad shape?

Or should I just blindly back wides at Romford on a Saturday morning.

Pretty dickish post IMO.

[Weetabix]

^ agree, aftertiming at it's finest

[aaron1867]

So is my 16/1 ticket still in bad shape?

Or should I just blindly back wides at Romford on a Saturday morning.

Romford on a Friday evening too.

[exstream]

Stockholm is interesting.  Bottom half is stacked with the likely winner, dimitrov at 4/1 looks a terrible price with his potential route. Zverev 3/1 as a max bet £250 e/w anyone?  Won his first title a few weeks ago and this is his fav surface. With Monfils going out it has cleared a path for him.  A proper bet hey!   Any opinions?

Over or under £10ew to be placed
I'm on unders

[bergeroo]

Stockholm is interesting.  Bottom half is stacked with the likely winner, dimitrov at 4/1 looks a terrible price with his potential route. Zverev 3/1 as a max bet £250 e/w anyone?  Won his first title a few weeks ago and this is his fav surface. With Monfils going out it has cleared a path for him.  A proper bet hey!   Any opinions?

Its worked out favourably for him with Monfils crashing out and he has the two outsiders/rags in his half. Sock is no mug, though Zverev beat him in straight sets recently on a hard court. Question though, only getting 1/3 on the ew now top two, is it still worth betting that on a 3/1 shot?

Seems like Delpo v Dimi in the bottom half which will be a close one and Delpo with start a slight favourite I guess. Anderson looks shot since coming back from injury. Karlovic is Karlovic. Maybe He might beat Delpo 7-6 7-6? But not an easy match most likely.

[Weetabix]

That's why I asked for opinions.  Ivo is a spoiler that is for sure.  I would take Zverev chances over any player in the bottom half apart from delpo who as you say has a tricky section. Certainly no value in the bottom
Section, question is, what about the top half?

[nellberg]

In the spirit of "logical discussion" ... calling all cricket experts

The 2nd test between Pakistan and West Indies begins early tomorrow morning. Pakistan won a tight-ish 1st test by 40 runs after dominating early on.There have been 8 tests since the 1st at this venue in 2010. We have had 4 Pakistan wins and 4 draws. The draw is 4/1 here, is that something we should be looking to back?

In the 1st innings the top bowler for Pakistan has been a seamer 6 times, a spinner once and a tie between a seamer/spinner on the other occasion. A spinner (Yasir shah) is 5/2 fav, is he worth opposing?

In the 1st innings the top bowler for the away team has been seamer 5 times, a spinner once, a tie between two seamers once and a tie between a seamer/spinner on the other occasion. A spinner (Devendra Bishoo) is 9/4 fav, is he worth opposing?

I don't have much to add, really, other than might those trends be a bit small sample size? And that the first match was incredibly 'swingy' - Azhar Ali scored 300 and they could have lost the match on the final day - incredibly entertaining and incredibly on free-to-air telly on Zing (Sky 789). Watch the next and with the adverts you'll never wonder again where you can get an immigration solicitor or a safe deposit box.

i'd add that the first test was a day-night pink ball test

both teams found it hindered spin early and reverse swing when it got dew-y in the evenings

this match in Abu Dhabi is a traditional red ball test. win the toss/bat. try to bowl last. the last te4st there was Egland last year and it was a dog of a pitch. too good

the problem with opposing Yasir in a red ball test in the UAE is he's so good. just become the second quickest player ever to 100 wickets in tests and Pakistan rotate the seamers a lot within an innings. Mohammed Amir is the obvious one to look at though

west indies i have less feel for, in part because the bowling line up is less exposed. again though i'd be comfortable in saying that Bishoo is their best bowler 

i would be tempted by the draw at 4/1.

Yeh, 1st thoughts were that the main 2 were the ones, wasn't sure if 8 tests at a ground was enough to make a case for opposing them. List of Pakistan seamers to win the award is hardly stellar (Junaid, Rahat, Imrann) and opposition winners include Stokes and Corey Anderson for the last 2 games  

I've had small bets on Wahab (5/1, good on his day) and Joesph (9/2, very unexposed) but it's a bit of a stab in the dark. Draw seems more solid if anything. Pakistan's collapse in their 2nd innings may mean they are a bit more circumspect setting up a chase and West Indies showed a bit more fight than I'd expected.

Really good first test bar the ads...

Couldn't have the draw windies still have a very long tail and pak looked leggy after such a big effort in the first innings...

all came to nowt as both my bowlers are N/R's 

Pakistan rest Amir and Wahab, won the toss and are batting

[tikay]

That's why I asked for opinions.  Ivo is a spoiler that is for sure.  I would take Zverev chances over any player in the bottom half apart from delpo who as you say has a tricky section. Certainly no value in the bottom
Section, question is, what about the top half?

As you are aware, I know nothing of Tennis, but there's no reason why your suggestion would not merit consideration, & if we can find consensus, we can have a bet. Not sure we would want, or even get, £250 EW, but if it really is good value, we'd certainly have a decent bet.

To my naïve eye, this looks a very close run thing, though that's only based upon the reply by bergeroo.

Here's the Oddschecker markets, to assist anyone interested;

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-stockholm/stockholm-open/winner

[bergeroo]

General question as I am curious, is it ok or bad to bet each way top two 1/3 odds on a 3/1 shot or is it a waste of money and should be win only?

[Doobs]

General question as I am curious, is it ok or bad to bet each way top two 1/3 odds on a 3/1 shot or is it a waste of money and should be win only?

The right answer is it depends.  A third 1/2 is round about right here, as that is roughly evens to reach the final, evens to win it.

But I think it is a bad bet both ways.  He is 1/7 today, but for evens to reach the final, he needs to be 3/4 to beat Sock and that feels marginal.  If he gets to the final, he then needs to be odds on to win.  I can't see that happening against Del Potro and if he faces Dimitrov it looks a flip.  They are scenarios where he has an easier progression amd easier final, but I don't think they happen enough to make this value. 

The place part looks better than the win part to me, so a third 1-2 looks ok, and may be most likely to be value, I just don't think either part is likely good enough.

Fwiw Kyle is odds on today, not that it changes the value or otherwise of the original bet.