Tips for Tikay

[ripple11]

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/tennis/tie-break-tens/winner

Tie break tens! Weird thing. Basically they play matches up to ten points. That's it. They had one before in London.

You will notice the lineup includes three top pros, Marcus Willis who was last seen being destroyed by Roger Federer at Wimbledon and two long retired guys.

In London they had two groups of three. Pros in one and McEnroe/Henman etc in the other. Top two from each group went through to the semis where the pros had easy wins and the Edmund played Murray in the final.

Question. How much of a favourite can one top pro be in an exhibition tie break vs another?

Of the three, I'd say Tsonga is most likely to play for the lolz/paycheck. Thiem at 4/1 will surely try hard in front of his home crowd. .Murray is the best of course- but how much of an edge can he have?

I can't for the life of me see how some of the retired guys are so short to beat top 10 players even in such a short format. Willis has also not played  tourney since Wimbledon. He has a special wildcard into qualifying for the main Vienna tourney next week.

Suggest £20 on Thiem to win tie break tens at 4/1 with pp/laddies

What do people think?

this is pp/ladbrokes or betway. none of which i can do.

can do if fred wants....

yes please

booked £20 at 4/1

[tikay]

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/tennis/tie-break-tens/winner

Tie break tens! Weird thing. Basically they play matches up to ten points. That's it. They had one before in London.

You will notice the lineup includes three top pros, Marcus Willis who was last seen being destroyed by Roger Federer at Wimbledon and two long retired guys.

In London they had two groups of three. Pros in one and McEnroe/Henman etc in the other. Top two from each group went through to the semis where the pros had easy wins and the Edmund played Murray in the final.

Question. How much of a favourite can one top pro be in an exhibition tie break vs another?

Of the three, I'd say Tsonga is most likely to play for the lolz/paycheck. Thiem at 4/1 will surely try hard in front of his home crowd. .Murray is the best of course- but how much of an edge can he have?

I can't for the life of me see how some of the retired guys are so short to beat top 10 players even in such a short format. Willis has also not played  tourney since Wimbledon. He has a special wildcard into qualifying for the main Vienna tourney next week.

Suggest £20 on Thiem to win tie break tens at 4/1 with pp/laddies

What do people think?

this is pp/ladbrokes or betway. none of which i can do.

can do if fred wants....

yes please

booked £20 at 4/1

Thanks Nick.

Not sure when this is, happy to send the cash now if you wish.

[Doobs]

Fair reply doobs , I would say the bookies would be closer to the sock price you mention v Zverev than I would make It which is why I thought the e/w part was more than fair.  I don't think sock is a great certainty today either.

I realise my reply wasn't as clear as I intended.  I think the win and each way bets aren't that great.  I do think if you could bet place only at evens it is an ok bet.  I would want to be happy with the win price too if betting each way, and don't think you gain enough on the place to make up for the -EV on the win bit.   

The question I answered was around whether a third 1-2 is fair.  I think it is absolutely fine here.  If somebody offered half 1-2 on Zverev this morning, I would snap their hands off, as it would be too generous.

[horseplayer]

ask again if anyone can get me a bet with betfred please pm

thanks

[arbboy]

Let's begin today with a theoretical question. We have 12 1/4 final tennis matches today,and some fascinating ones too. Now, suppose I have found a really good bet, do people think that given the current climate on here that I would be at all inclined to post it?

Anyway, wasn't yesterday a hoot. Our British Bulldog fought back from the brink of defeat to smite the Spanish conquistador. This thwarted the no doubt planned "rubbish bet, best £500 bet recommend, leave it to the pro's" posts that we have all come to expect.

But fear not, a second line of attack has already begun. Having been mocked as someone who knows nothing about winning at betting on tennis, I am now called out as knowing nothing about rugby league betting either. It was stated that I advocate betting on anytime try scorers in matches when few tries were expected. This is sheer genius. After all Arbboy wrote it, it's about betting, so it must be true. Hell, even I believed it when I first read it.

The genius part is there is no way that I can disprove this. Well there is but it would involve trawling through thousands of pages of this thread, or all 2,000 + posts of mine and I am not doing that.  My only option is to write that I don't agree that I wrote it, and Arbboy would say I did. Well he definitely writes louder than me, although certainly not better, so his view would be seen as gospel. It really is a masterstroke. I have few options other than to enter into a shouting match, and I wouldn't back the outsider in that game. Alternatively I could just reproduce my post from earlier in the month and let people decide on what I what I think the best strategy is in low scoring matches.

It's the grand final in superleague tonight when Warrington face Wigan. Very little between these teams, but I have a slight preference for Wigan. Traditionally these games are nervy and low scoring. As such instead of doing an  anytime try scorer bet I prefer a first try scorer bet. Our old Wigan favourites, Bateman and Williams, are still being priced up a shade too big. It looks like Sandow will return from injury tonight and could well be targeted in his defence, and he defends exactly where these 2 players attack best.

First try scorer £10 both Williams @ 20-1 with Hills, coral or ladbrokes and Bateman @ 18-1 with coral or ladbrokes.

Just in case anyone's forgotten Wigan won a low scoring match, but the try scorer bets were losers.

But amidst all the personal attacks I still found time to be greatly amused by Aarons post about a "which hunt". I am sure there is a word for when an incorrect word that sounds the same is used mistakenly, and I wish I knew what it was, but I do find it amusing when it happens. Personally I find this whole saga more akin to the KKK in the 50's than a witch hunt. I don't know if I am Kunta Kinte, or maybe Chicken George, but I sure is runnin masser. Yes I am aware that those 2 people were from a different century, but give me a bit of poetic license, please.

Some however might see the similarity between all this and the US Presidential debates. Well I did take on board the Michelle Obama quote " When they go low, we go high" and I am content that I have not been dragged down into the gutter.

Amidst all the brouhaha it probably went unnoticed that I am the only underdog getting picked on in this forum that Camel hasn't rode in to defend. So if we are comparing this thread to the Renee one, that must make Arbboy Renee. That makes me Cambridge Alex - ooh I rather like my company.

Just in case some of you may look at this post and think I am leaving, well I am certainly not doing that. Why would I leave when with every post, every tip, every winner that I give I sense their blood pressure rising. You will probably not get any elaborations for a while on why I think something is a bet, but I hope most people will understand why. But Tighty that does  give you a very valid reason not to do my bets for Fred, and I don't have any problem with that. It is just easier to put it on here than send out 27 PM's to people who have requested it.

Some of you may remember the ridiculous stories I wrote a while back, and last night I came up with a peach of a scenario involving some people on here and Donald Trump, but doing that now would definitely be going too low.

That wasn't the match in question my friend.  It was a lot longer ago than that.  As first try scorers seem to be one of your areas of expertise you might have to dig a little deeper to find the game in question.  No point pulling up one of the hundreds of any time try scorers which suits your argument.

Also among you elegant prose you managed to avoid answering the only issue of the day which we are discussing and that is 'how did you make Edmund a shorter price than 16/1 pre event to justify him being a bet?'  Weetabix and myself have put up our really simple 5 year old level probability calcs/analysis of him being a 40/1-50/1 poke.  Could you do something similar to highlight our difference of opinion?  Any reason why there wasn't a £20 bet yesterday on Edmund at 2/1 for example if he was a proper sub 16/1 poke in your eyes for the title?  He would have had to have been a fav Edmund yday to justify backing him at 16/1 for the title right?  Surely not another odds on shot trading at 2/1 we either miss or have a minimum of all minimum bets on?  What was the basement level price that we don't bet Edmund at or do we just back him at top price available because 'i fancy him to win this week'?    We backing him at 10/1?  6/1? 6/4? 4/6? to win this week? 

Much easier answering the real issue in hand rather than constantly avoiding it/changing subjects.  Saves me having to keep re asking the same question and boring people and it helps the debate flow.

[arbboy]

All big wide at monmore BAGS this afternoon for the roffler bias needlers from last night. 

[Weetabix]

Didn't see any pictures but sounded as if 6 was beaten close to the finish, rf will do though 5-6

9/1 the runner up, I was ready to collect.

[arbboy]

Didn't see any pictures but sounded as if 6 was beaten close to the finish, rf will do though 5-6

9/1 the runner up, I was ready to collect.

Jolly in 2 led the whole way and got done late on by the wides.  £32 forecast.

[arbboy]

Just the 645 £32 tricast this time.  Jolly was a good thing on old form without the bias.  Right that's your lot from me for today.  Enjoy the beer money from that little lot over the weekend sure KMAC got the lot.  Thank him for the needle last night otherwise i wouldn't have bothered to post.  Away from the machine this weekend.  

[Weetabix]

Timely post, I will leave it there after that fc came up.

[tikay]

Meanwhile, Edmund plays at 17.50 tonight.

[Marky147]

Meanwhile, Edmund plays at 17.50 tonight.

[FUN4FRASER]

Let's begin today with a theoretical question. We have 12 1/4 final tennis matches today,and some fascinating ones too. Now, suppose I have found a really good bet, do people think that given the current climate on here that I would be at all inclined to post it?

Anyway, wasn't yesterday a hoot. Our British Bulldog fought back from the brink of defeat to smite the Spanish conquistador. This thwarted the no doubt planned "rubbish bet, best £500 bet recommend, leave it to the pro's" posts that we have all come to expect.

But fear not, a second line of attack has already begun. Having been mocked as someone who knows nothing about winning at betting on tennis, I am now called out as knowing nothing about rugby league betting either. It was stated that I advocate betting on anytime try scorers in matches when few tries were expected. This is sheer genius. After all Arbboy wrote it, it's about betting, so it must be true. Hell, even I believed it when I first read it.

The genius part is there is no way that I can disprove this. Well there is but it would involve trawling through thousands of pages of this thread, or all 2,000 + posts of mine and I am not doing that.  My only option is to write that I don't agree that I wrote it, and Arbboy would say I did. Well he definitely writes louder than me, although certainly not better, so his view would be seen as gospel. It really is a masterstroke. I have few options other than to enter into a shouting match, and I wouldn't back the outsider in that game. Alternatively I could just reproduce my post from earlier in the month and let people decide on what I what I think the best strategy is in low scoring matches.

It's the grand final in superleague tonight when Warrington face Wigan. Very little between these teams, but I have a slight preference for Wigan. Traditionally these games are nervy and low scoring. As such instead of doing an  anytime try scorer bet I prefer a first try scorer bet. Our old Wigan favourites, Bateman and Williams, are still being priced up a shade too big. It looks like Sandow will return from injury tonight and could well be targeted in his defence, and he defends exactly where these 2 players attack best.

First try scorer £10 both Williams @ 20-1 with Hills, coral or ladbrokes and Bateman @ 18-1 with coral or ladbrokes.

Just in case anyone's forgotten Wigan won a low scoring match, but the try scorer bets were losers.

But amidst all the personal attacks I still found time to be greatly amused by Aarons post about a "which hunt". I am sure there is a word for when an incorrect word that sounds the same is used mistakenly, and I wish I knew what it was, but I do find it amusing when it happens. Personally I find this whole saga more akin to the KKK in the 50's than a witch hunt. I don't know if I am Kunta Kinte, or maybe Chicken George, but I sure is runnin masser. Yes I am aware that those 2 people were from a different century, but give me a bit of poetic license, please.

Some however might see the similarity between all this and the US Presidential debates. Well I did take on board the Michelle Obama quote " When they go low, we go high" and I am content that I have not been dragged down into the gutter.

Amidst all the brouhaha it probably went unnoticed that I am the only underdog getting picked on in this forum that Camel hasn't rode in to defend. So if we are comparing this thread to the Renee one, that must make Arbboy Renee. That makes me Cambridge Alex - ooh I rather like my company.

Just in case some of you may look at this post and think I am leaving, well I am certainly not doing that. Why would I leave when with every post, every tip, every winner that I give I sense their blood pressure rising. You will probably not get any elaborations for a while on why I think something is a bet, but I hope most people will understand why. But Tighty that does  give you a very valid reason not to do my bets for Fred, and I don't have any problem with that. It is just easier to put it on here than send out 27 PM's to people who have requested it.

Some of you may remember the ridiculous stories I wrote a while back, and last night I came up with a peach of a scenario involving some people on here and Donald Trump, but doing that now would definitely be going too low.

That wasn't the match in question my friend.  It was a lot longer ago than that.  As first try scorers seem to be one of your areas of expertise you might have to dig a little deeper to find the game in question.  No point pulling up one of the hundreds of any time try scorers which suits your argument.

Also among you elegant prose you managed to avoid answering the only issue of the day which we are discussing and that is 'how did you make Edmund a shorter price than 16/1 pre event to justify him being a bet?'  Weetabix and myself have put up our really simple 5 year old level probability calcs/analysis of him being a 40/1-50/1 poke.  Could you do something similar to highlight our difference of opinion?  Any reason why there wasn't a £20 bet yesterday on Edmund at 2/1 for example if he was a proper sub 16/1 poke in your eyes for the title?  He would have had to have been a fav Edmund yday to justify backing him at 16/1 for the title right?  Surely not another odds on shot trading at 2/1 we either miss or have a minimum of all minimum bets on?  What was the basement level price that we don't bet Edmund at or do we just back him at top price available because 'i fancy him to win this week'?    We backing him at 10/1?  6/1? 6/4? 4/6? to win this week? 

Much easier answering the real issue in hand rather than constantly avoiding it/changing subjects.  Saves me having to keep re asking the same question and boring people and it helps the debate flow.

Goodness ! Has it really come to this ?

As somebody that plays poker , I try to remove any negativity out of my mind both away and at the table because the game is hard enough as it is . Surely its the same with betting ? and all this has a - EV impact for everybody concerned ?

Arbboy , Im not singling you out and respect you for your knowledge and contributions , but whether you are right or wrong maybe consider taking a step back to look at the bigger picture and threads objectives which surely are to beat the bookies and hopefully put a smile on everyones face.

Hope you can end the bickering and all sort it out like adults.

Peace x

[StuartHopkin]

Love you arb x

[StuartHopkin]

Love you arb x

Nooooooooo

Why do I have 2 x Combo Forecasts receipts!