Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

I've backed Barney, just for interest, but whys it recommended for Fred, how can the price be wrong and what do we know that everyone else doesn't
Apologies if comes across as bad

Where do you want to start?   World ranking? Outright price for the event?  Over reaction to barney's last game?  Might be easier for you to tell us how you made Barney a decent fav to justify betting him at the prices?

Don't be flippant. The first two are mug punter reasons, as you'd say.

It's the third one really, isn't it?

[arbboy]

I've backed Barney, just for interest, but whys it recommended for Fred, how can the price be wrong and what do we know that everyone else doesn't
Apologies if comes across as bad

Where do you want to start?   World ranking? Outright price for the event?  Over reaction to barney's last game?  Might be easier for you to tell us how you made Barney a decent fav to justify betting him at the prices?

Don't be flippant. The first two are mug punter reasons, as you'd say.

It's the third one really, isn't it?

No idea why the outright price for the event of the two players is not a decent factor?  Can you explain?  There are various other reasons as well on top of these really obvious ones.  I haven't heard too many reasons why Barney should be fav tbh from anyone.

[DungBeetle]

I've backed Barney, just for interest, but whys it recommended for Fred, how can the price be wrong and what do we know that everyone else doesn't
Apologies if comes across as bad

Ye Gods!  I've just opened the entire clip on Lewis.  Speak to me sir! 

[exstream]

i just bet for interest based on barnys last game, typical overreaction mug punt, dont like lewis lol

same reasons to bet leicester against middlesborough then?

[PokerBroker]

There could be some mileage in backing St Johnstone against the rangers this evening.  Despite sitting 2nd in the table I have yet to be convinced by the newest club in the top flight.

There record against top 6 sides is poor, particularly away from Ibrox.

13/5if Fred can get £50 on is ok.

Wouldn't take any less than 12/5.

I expect goals for each side and have done BTTS and over 2.5 goals as well.

Since it's Christmas and I am watching this game I will be playing Saints and BTTS @ 11/2 couldn't put anyone off a sporting bet at that.

[arbboy]

i just bet for interest based on barnys last game, typical overreaction mug punt, dont like lewis lol

same reasons to bet leicester against middlesborough then?

That's fair enough and there are probably thousands like you distorting the price.  The crowd is hardly going to be on jackpot's side either.

[Tal]

I've backed Barney, just for interest, but whys it recommended for Fred, how can the price be wrong and what do we know that everyone else doesn't
Apologies if comes across as bad

Where do you want to start?   World ranking? Outright price for the event?  Over reaction to barney's last game?  Might be easier for you to tell us how you made Barney a decent fav to justify betting him at the prices?

Don't be flippant. The first two are mug punter reasons, as you'd say.

It's the third one really, isn't it?

No idea why the outright price for the event of the two players is not a decent factor?  Can you explain?

The outright price is the one more likely to be stale, no?

I mean if Barney's chances of winning are better than they were yesterday, Lewis isn't a bet in the match and we should be focusing on the tournament price.

The point is that you don't buy that Barney's chances ARE better, so the bookies have overreacted (or they're splitting the expected handle) and so we should back Lewis.

[arbboy]

I've backed Barney, just for interest, but whys it recommended for Fred, how can the price be wrong and what do we know that everyone else doesn't
Apologies if comes across as bad

Where do you want to start?   World ranking? Outright price for the event?  Over reaction to barney's last game?  Might be easier for you to tell us how you made Barney a decent fav to justify betting him at the prices?

Don't be flippant. The first two are mug punter reasons, as you'd say.

It's the third one really, isn't it?

No idea why the outright price for the event of the two players is not a decent factor?  Can you explain?

The outright price is the one more likely to be stale, no?

I mean if Barney's chances of winning are better than they were yesterday, Lewis isn't a bet in the match and we should be focusing on the tournament price.

The point is that you don't buy that Barney's chances ARE better, so the bookies have overreacted (or they're splitting the expected handle) and so we should back Lewis.

Stale outright price on betfair exchange?

[Killerkilsby]

Just to confuse the matter, ive tried to empty the clip on lewis and mis clicked onto Barney ffs

[exstream]

Barney 22 on exchange Lewis 23!!

[DungBeetle]

There could be some mileage in backing St Johnstone against the rangers this evening.  Despite sitting 2nd in the table I have yet to be convinced by the newest club in the top flight.

There record against top 6 sides is poor, particularly away from Ibrox.

13/5if Fred can get £50 on is ok.

Wouldn't take any less than 12/5.

I expect goals for each side and have done BTTS and over 2.5 goals as well.

Since it's Christmas and I am watching this game I will be playing Saints and BTTS @ 11/2 couldn't put anyone off a sporting bet at that.

On that now as well and bought total goal minutes.  Come on the TFT masters.

[Tal]

I've backed Barney, just for interest, but whys it recommended for Fred, how can the price be wrong and what do we know that everyone else doesn't
Apologies if comes across as bad

Where do you want to start?   World ranking? Outright price for the event?  Over reaction to barney's last game?  Might be easier for you to tell us how you made Barney a decent fav to justify betting him at the prices?

Don't be flippant. The first two are mug punter reasons, as you'd say.

It's the third one really, isn't it?

No idea why the outright price for the event of the two players is not a decent factor?  Can you explain?

The outright price is the one more likely to be stale, no?

I mean if Barney's chances of winning are better than they were yesterday, Lewis isn't a bet in the match and we should be focusing on the tournament price.

The point is that you don't buy that Barney's chances ARE better, so the bookies have overreacted (or they're splitting the expected handle) and so we should back Lewis.

Stale outright price on betfair exchange?

Are you looking at a different market to me? They're basically the same price. On that logic, Barney is the bet.

FWIW I don't disagree with the bet (so no I def don't want a bet with you!), but the reason that seemed to me to be most compelling was the market (and therefore the bookies) overreacting.

For me, the biggest factor would be whether either had a significant incentive, as that can often be relevant this time of year for those who like to spend money during the year. Any info on that front?

[exstream]

if theyre the same price for outright isnt lewis the bet lol

[arbboy]

I am lost.  Kick on jackpot.  Everyone i know and respect darts wise (including myself haha!) makes Lewis a decent fav tonight.  That is good enough for me.  Tal obviously had too many mince pies and sherry!

[Tal]

if theyre the same price for outright isnt lewis the bet lol

I meant on tonight's match.

Stop trying to confuse things!



Appreciate arbboy is the Pythagorus of TFT: undefeated in arguments on maths (actually, Pythagorus was once proved wrong and killed the bloke who did it).

Just seemed to me one of the three reasons was far better than the other two.