NFL regular season is over. How did Fred do?
Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North (£50 @ 2/1)This is the division:
Green Bay 10-6
Detroit 9-7
Minnesota 8-8
Chicago 3-13
Season ending injuries to key players is always going to be a problem for a team, especially in a division as competitive as the NFC North.
The Vikings gambled a first round pick to bring in cover at quarterback in Sam Bradford. He was exactly the steady hand they wanted, but without star running back Adrian Peterson and a number of other significant players, they simply didn't have the artillery in key games.
Assessment: we had a good price but got unlucky with injuries.
Arizona Cardinals to win the Super Bowl (£20 @ 12/1)Consensus both ITT and across the world had Arizona as one of the top teams for this season. The simple fact is they haven't been able to relive the magic of last year. It's not yet clear whether the real Cardinals are the 2015 or the 2016 edition, but this iteration never really threatened to dominate the NFC like we thought they might.
Head Coach, Bruce Arians, had health issues, star safety, Tyrann Matthieu has again struggled to stay fit, the receiving corps hasn't been anywhere near as potent, the evergreen Larry Fitzgerald and the mercurial David Johnson aside.
Assessment: Perhaps we bet a team on the top of the curve.
San Francisco 49ers to have the NFL's worst record (£50 @ 7/1)The logic for the bet was the roster is poor, the coach is terrible and the schedule was tough. I'd expected 3-13 to be the first overall pick.
The roster has been one only a mother could love, the coach has been fired, along with the General Manager, the schedule has been so tough they only beat one team: the Rams (first game of the season when the Rams were fast asleep and then again when they have been forced to play a rookie QB who isn't ready).
The win last weekend was hugely frustrating and made little sense for the team in the medium to long term. But the coach needed to win for his own record and the quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, knows he might still be there next season. So, in the short term, a win mattered enough.
We didn't bargain on the Cleveland Browns being just as bad. Even then, the Browns have a much better head coach and a couple of decent players. But they kept losing.
One game behind, it all came down to the last game.
Yesterday, I wrote:
"For us to win this bet, Cleveland will have to win against Playoff participants Pittsburgh Steelers, who will be resting a few players. It's not impossible, but we're relying on Pittsburgh being rubbish and Cleveland both being competent and actually trying to win. And we know how much Fred loves trebles..."Highlights:
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2017010108/2016/REG17/browns@steelers/videos The Browns missed a field goal likely to win it. They also dropped the ball when about to score a touchdown. They also dropped the ball when setting up a game-winning field goal. They even went ahead in overtime, only to concede a touchdown to lose.
Result is the Browns finished 1-15 and the 49ers finished 2-14.
Assessment: At 7/1, we had a great bet. One of those things.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers total points over 350.5 (£22 @ 10/11)Scores in 16 games:
31
7
32
7
17
34
24
28
36
19
14
28
16
20
24
17
354 points after 16 games, meaning we did a win!
The offense was good but inconsistent, because of injuries to key players.
Assessment: a good bet and probably closer than it ought to have been
Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers) to get the most receiving yards (£50 @ 9/2)http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=RECEIVING&conference=null&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RECEIVING_YARDS&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1Brown struggled at times, much like the Steelers. The team missed Martavis Bryant as the supporting wide receiver, meaning teams could defend against Brown more easily. He finished 5th but 160 yards off first
Assessment: a logical bet but not to be.
David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals) to have the most rushing yards (£25 each way (1,2,3, 1/4) at 18/1)http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS&tabSeq=0&season=2016&Submit=Go&experience=&archive=false&statisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=null&qualified=falseThe star man on the ground this season has been a rookie for Dallas. Week 17 saw a number of the big names rested, meaning we had a strong chance of making the place money.
But Johnson got a hideous injury early into the game and was declared out immediately.
1. Ezekiel Elliott 1,631
2. Jordan Howard 1,313
3. DeMarco Murray 1,287
4. Jay Ajayi 1,272
5. Le'Veon Bell 1,268
6. LeSean McCoy 1,267
7. David Johnson 1,239
49 yards would have got us home and that was perfectly achievable.
Assessment: Johnson is one of the NFL's superstars. We knew he gets a lot of passes thrown his way and that cuts into his yards on the ground. The fact the team hasn't dominated like we hoped has also hurt us. And yet he STILL nearly got there.
OverallA net loss but I do think we put a good portfolio together for the season.
We still have the Falcons to funk for, plus whatever else we pick for the playoffs.
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