Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

What's coming up?

The PGA Golf continues, televised from 6pm until midnight.

The current Leaderboard is here....

http://www.pga.com/pgachampionship/scoring/leaderboard

In Tennis, Day 5 of the Rogers Cup, which has raised barely a flicker of Fred interest, continues from Toronto, & is also on the telly.

In the Olympics, apart from our GB Medals bet, which looks better by the day, (cue Tighty Legend status), we have an interest in the Boxing tonight, with Ivan Dychko responsible for £25 @ 6/1 to win Gold. His semi-final bout is at 10.45 this evening, & will be televised live.   

He seems to be quite an outsider for tonight's bout.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/boxing/mens/ivan-dychko-v-anthony-joshua/winner

Fiunally, it is Friday, so Live Rugby League, too, with the Bradford Bulls taking on the properly named Hull Kingston Rovers. Rovers, proper name that, Roy used to play for them.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/club-rugby/super-league/bradford-v-hull-k-r/winner

Here's Roy, as I remember him. Note, intro by Gary Lineker. Oooh....

Click to see full-size image.

[MereNovice]

Badblokes still have Jess @ 7-2, so not much below the price at which you foolishly laid her back. This could be a back to lay to back to keep maybe?

Great news for the thread lay of Deana in Big Bro though, she's on the drift and could even get voted out tonight. Wp us.

If only Fred had been wise enough to lay Deana.
Currently, he only has the greened-out position on Sara.

[TightEnd]

My locks for the list are

Wiggins
Ennis
Farah
Murray
Ainslie
Hoy

Probably on

Grainger
Pendleton
Adams

Last spot

Brownlee

When I was looking at the womens bet in the first place I thought that there being fewer viable female candidates would mean that the votes would be concentrated more on the athletes that did well. However there have been so many strong female athletic performances that I think this hinders the bet. 

could you explain this please?

the final 10 is derived from amalgamating lists from a panel of journalists across the country, mainly regional papers, some nationals

Whilst votes in the final 10 from the public on the night might be affected by split votes in certain sports and across the female candidates, I am not sure how having a lot of female contenders for that shortlist hinders the bet.

Ta

[tikay]

Cabrera-Bello actually carded 71(-1) after a bogey at his last hole.

Not having that Ralph, the interwb is never wrong, except when Chompy is around.

Seriously, for a 450/1 shot, we can't lose. Would be so much fun if he could manage a "hot" round, taking advantage of weather maybe.

[Tal]

My locks for the list are

Wiggins
Ennis
Farah
Murray
Ainslie
Hoy

Probably on

Grainger
Pendleton
Adams

Last spot

Brownlee

When I was looking at the womens bet in the first place I thought that there being fewer viable female candidates would mean that the votes would be concentrated more on the athletes that did well. However there have been so many strong female athletic performances that I think this hinders the bet. 

could you explain this please?

the final 10 is derived from amalgamating lists from a panel of journalists across the country, mainly regional papers, some nationals

Whilst votes in the final 10 from the public on the night might be affected by split votes in certain sports and across the female candidates, I am not sure how having a lot of female contenders for that shortlist hinders the bet.

Ta

Vote spreading is only really relevant for the overall winner (after the final 10 is decided). However as stated previously I don't see it likely that there will be 5 or more cyclists in the shortlist. We've done too well in other sports for the market to be so saturated.

[ACE2M]

Good luck with your position against Wiggins but i think you're mad.

Do we know how much of the voting is done on the night?  On the show the montage for him will say 'never done before', 'made history' etc etc - people recognise and love that stuff.

Isn't cycling the 2nd most popular sport in the UK? Everyone of them is voting for Wiggins, any sports fan is voting for Wiggins because they know his acheivments this year are far greater.

[tikay]

Good luck with your position against Wiggins but i think you're mad.

Do we know how much of the voting is done on the night?  On the show the montage for him will say 'never done before', 'made history' etc etc - people recognise and love that stuff.

Isn't cycling the 2nd most popular sport in the UK? Everyone of them is voting for Wiggins, any sports fan is voting for Wiggins because they know his acheivments this year are far greater.

T'was never in doubt, Tom.....

[Bertpup]

My locks for the list are

Wiggins
Ennis
Farah
Murray
Ainslie
Hoy

Probably on

Grainger
Pendleton
Adams

Last spot

Brownlee

When I was looking at the womens bet in the first place I thought that there being fewer viable female candidates would mean that the votes would be concentrated more on the athletes that did well. However there have been so many strong female athletic performances that I think this hinders the bet. 

could you explain this please?

the final 10 is derived from amalgamating lists from a panel of journalists across the country, mainly regional papers, some nationals

Whilst votes in the final 10 from the public on the night might be affected by split votes in certain sports and across the female candidates, I am not sure how having a lot of female contenders for that shortlist hinders the bet.

Ta

I hope this doesn't come across as useless babble if so I apologies.  

From my point of view the six names I gave are 99% certain nominations and are going to appear on most ballots. It isn't just the Gold medals they have won its also there past achievements.

So that leaves 4 spots up for grabs. The reason I liked the women bet in the first place was that I thought that there wouldn't be such a strong showing by Women athletes at these games. Which would concentrate the votes on people like Pendleton, Grainger, female swimmer etc.. Now with there being so many successful female athletes the female vote gets split among them. Leaving people like Brownlee, Rutherford, Weir to sneak in.

[The Camel]

Racing Post do their Football preview pullout this coming Wednesday. Absolute must-buy imo.

Be interested to see if they do any goalscorer handicaps. Looking to get on Tyrone Barnett in some way. Guy is absolutely the best we have ever had at London Road.

Re: Jess in SPOTY. She can now be laid at around the price at which we got on and will prob go a bit shorter when she wins it tonight. I recommend getting out. Great bet but unfortunately Wiggsy has done for us. Don't mind though, Wiggsy is a legend - so cool it hurts. And he looks just like the guy I use for decorating.

There you go Keith.

I open with the renowned but fiendishly difficult Chompy orthodox opening gambit, P-Q4.
 
We can all agree to blame Chompy.

I'm a huge Chompy fan. Probably the shrewdest man on here.

I just cannot see any logic in this trade.

Jess is going to be on tv and the press non stop, talking about her fairytale wedding, appearing on chat shows and whatnot.

I can quite imagine Wiggins just disappearing from view, popping down the pub now and again and generally living the quiet life.

Add to this I think the actual SPOTY show will concentrate on the Olympics to the virtual exclusion of every other event this year.

And it is inevitable the cycling vote will be split. Scottish cycling fans will vote for Hoy to the exclusion of all others.

I think Wiggins achievements are far more impressive, without all the other factors in play I think 1.5+ would be great value.

Think this is a unique year, and Ennis is massive bet at 7/2.

[rfgqqabc]

Not for thread cos with Skybet but Chris Cooke @ 8/1 top Glamorgan bat - 4/1-9/2 general

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/cb40-league/welsh-dragons-v-hampshire/top-welsh-dragons-batsman

[Tal]

An odd one, but the GB men's 4 x 100m relay team could do something interesting.

For some reason, we have a habit of massively overachieving in relays. With the pressure nowhere near us and a clear dogfight for third, is a medal a nice little price at 2.8 on betfair? Jamaica and USA have not been smooth carriers of the baton in years past, although it's stupid to suggest that unless they do anything silly, it's anything but a two horse race.

On a more banzai-ish level, we're 94-1 for gold. Remember Mark Lewis-Francis v Maurice Greene?

Just saying...

#blindpatriotism

[peejaytwo]

Not for thread cos with Skybet but Chris Cooke @ 8/1 top Glamorgan bat - 4/1-9/2 general

It's astarting point but don't blindly take the price cos it's OOL.
These markets are priced up horrendously,typically 140%,so you need edge to beat then, eg someone been promoted up the order.

[nirvana]

I'm a huge Chompy fan. Probably the shrewdest man on here.

Oh my, yet more brag bank material for Chompy. His smug, self congratulatory demeanour makles him the worse kind of company already

[millidonk]

I'm a huge Chomp fan.

Me too, wish they were still 10p.

[tikay]

I'm a huge Chompy fan. Probably the shrewdest man on here.

Oh my, yet more brag bank material for Chompy. His smug, self congratulatory demeanour makles him the worse kind of company already

When we start larging up The Chompy, we have plumbed new depths.