Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0620, Saturday August 11th

LOSS on Month £15.50

Unsettled Bets £317.50

The spreadsheet is here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=11

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 09630, Saturday August 11th

One of Fred's quietest days ever, we never placed a single bet, & there was not much chatter either.

The day was dominated by the realisation that Chompy had insisted we lay Jessica Ennis, a decision he is now trying to wriggle out of. The man, who claims he wears his replica Peterborough shirt in bed, is a disgrace to the Fens.

We had just one bet mature yesterday, a boxer who is almost as tall as Silo Graham, Ivan Dychko, but the Team GB lad was more up for it, & readily outpointed him, so £25 was KO'd.

 

[tikay]

What's coming up?

The PGA Golf continues. We swerved a bet for Micklson to miss the cut, & it was an absolute pleasure to watch him grind out a score yesterday despite not playing well off the tee. Poulter is right up with the leaders, & whilst we are not on him, it'd be grand to see him win. Tiger & Rory are both right up there, too.

 http://www.pga.com/pgachampionship/scoring/leaderboard

The Olympics continue. Our bet on Norway (Womens Handball) climaxes @ 8.30pm tonight, when they go for Gold. Good luck them!

The Medal Table bet continues, we are in good shape if it is based on Golds, though I'm not sure how it works.

Most amazingly........Football is back! Tomorrow it is the Community Shield (Man City v Chelsea) & next Wednesday, England feature in an International Friendly. That'll be a culture shock after the Olympics.....

[tikay]

I am AWOL today, & MereNovice (or as Tighty refers to him, 'Vice) has kindly agreed to take over for today, run the next leg so to speak.

So I happily & smoothly pass the baton to Lord Grumpy himself who will process the bets smoothly assuming he is not doing his Rip Van Winkle thing.

Have a good day.

Click to see full-size image.

[ACE2M]

pretty disgusted with myself. was going to recommend vijay for 2nd rd leader at 80/1 earlier. pfft.

I hope you backed him.
[/quote

of course not

[TightEnd]

The Olympics

GB finished 4th in the medal table behind Russia at Beijing

https://p.twimg.com/Ax09X8yCAAA8ImI.jpg

They are priced at comfortably odds on to be 4th or below this time round

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/specials/olympic-specials/great-britain/medal-table-finishing-position

To finish in the top 3, and flip flop Russia, we can get 2-1 with Bet365

Why might this be value?

a) the head of Russia's Olympic committee said on Tuesday Britain posed a threat to third place, which Russia secured in both Athens and Sydney, despite Team GB's stated aim being fourth.

"When the British talk about fourth place, they are being modest," said Alexander Zhukov.

b) Team GB will win 27 gold medals at the Olympic Games, by far its largest haul in a century, according to a study released to the BBC.

That tally would be likely to earn Great Britain third place in the London 2012 medal table, above Russia.

The Sheffield Hallam University study bases the projection on the team's past performance and adjusts for Britain's home advantage at London 2012.

The 27-gold figure is substantially higher than many other forecasts.


Where might be the surprise? the Professor who did the study explains

"Shibli believes forecasts based on recent results do not take into account the effect of home advantage and, therefore, underestimates Britain's potential this summer.

"There is this separate benefit of being the host nation. We are able to contest more sports, more disciplines, more events and more medals than we would previously," he said.

"Now that doesn't guarantee medal-winning success - the host nation also ends up with the most last places. But Britain's pre-qualified athletes have not had to play their hand yet in the way others have, and they have an element of surprise."

ie our competitors haven't had to qualify in, our guys get in automatically, therefore their form is less exposed to odds-setters and creates the potential for a surprise....furthermore we have more athletes competing than in other Olympics, as host

At 2-1 we are being the offered the opportunity to have a punt on these trends here, and in effect buying UK/Selling Russia




The alternative market of total medals has a pivot point of 62.5 medals under/over. We had 47 in 08, and forecasts for 12 are 56,57,59,60 from four seperate forecasters

"Sheffield Hallam's Simon Shibli says he is 'comfortable' with the gold-medal projection but believes Britain may win more than 56 medals in total. He said: "Just from me looking at it, 56 in total is a bit on the shy side."

2-1 on top three is more attractive than 8-11 the under/over 62.5 in my opinion

On.

TightEnd   Bet365   Misc.   Olympics - Britain's finishing place   3rd or better   2/1   50

1       
Great Britain 3rd or higher
      Olympic Medal Table Placing 2012
To Win Outright       12/08/2012       
2/1
      None       To Run
Stake 50.00    To Win  100.00

the bet is on the official medal table, which takes numbers of golds before total medals:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/2012/medals/countries

We are 10 ahead with a day and a half to go

32 Golds to be won today, far fewer tomorrow

The remarkable thing is how accurate the forecasters were....27 golds we have 25 so far....medal forecasts 56-60 we are guaranteed 60 so far

[Tal]

11 ahead now.

We're as far ahead of 4th as we are behind 2nd.

[bigtadger]

after the speedway world cup ( australia 2nd ) we are back with the 2nd  individual gp , tonights is from terenzano italy , its simply a high speed real racers track and tip top engines are a must i believe on this circuit, im gonna have a little flutter on a man that finished 3rd in the last one, seems back to full fitness and it really riding well, thomaz gollob , hes available  around the 6/1 mark and i think hes worth a small £20 interest ,good luck all if you follow !!!

[pokerfan]

Man City top of the league Xmas day 13-8 Hills.

Fixtures have been very kind to them, should be a flying start.

Would like some thought on the price pls, seems big ?

[scotty2hatty]

Mini Walthamstow documentary, it's worth a watch. Perhaps mostly for the comedic gambler, anyone know him?

[Rubbish2407]

Loved the dog eating sirloin steak and the guy had beans on toast.

[Chompy]

Good watch that. The pro punterer is just what I want to be like.

Loved the old boy massaging he's ego. "This guy's a pro, too clever" etc. Still happy to take his bets through his minions though obv.

[MajorMajor]

What do people think of Mo's price in the 5000m? 6-4 seems big to me. Had the 10000m under control and looking comfortable enough in the qualifying?  Or is this just patriotism?

[Tal]

6-4 is more likely to be the product of patriotism. He is apparently feeling a bit of fatigue (obv could be mind games but would doubt it) and the double is an incredible achievement.

There are a few people capable of winning and most of them will be deliberately working in groups against Farah.

Can't see the value in that price myself. Justifiably favourite but only a nose in front as I see it.

[Tal]

More importantly, NWHT tonight.