Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

It is the US Open draw tomorrow (edit 5pm later today). 

Konta is 5th favourite at 13.5/14.5.  That is probably where she is in the World.  Maybe just a little bit behind Halep, Pliskova and Svitolina.  Kerber is going to drop a fair bit in the rankings after this, which is probably where she should be on recent form.  We got 33/1 on Konta at the turn of the year, and this is our last bet at the big prices available then.  I do think she is turning into a very good player and this is her best surface.  She isn't without a chance, and can give anybody a close game right now, but you'd want Muguruza in the other half.  Muguruza looks clear best in the World right now, but she was obviously flattered by the Halep result the other day.  If they meet again, it will be a lot closer.  Who knows where Sharapova should be in the rankings right now, but I wouldn't want to catch her in round 1.

Rybarikova has scraped in to the seeds.  She has probably regressed a bit since Wimbledon.  I saw a quote where she was moaning about still playing the qualifiers the other day, which does seem a bit silly on the face of it.  It seems the US Open can use fairly current rankings, but the Connecticut Open can't.  Don't ask me to explain this, as I can't (help please).  Anyway, no worries as she is seeded, but I probably wouldn't put the same bet on right now as I worry about her mood.  Clutching at straws a bit, but maybe the 75/1 to final is still value?     

Anyway we have one good bet, and one so-so one.   

[Weetabix]

Nice ticket to be holding at 33/1, don't rate her chances against the top players and can't understand how she is shorter than svitolina(edit that, just one rogue bookie has her at 14/1).  I think kerber may go well next week despite her inconsistent year.  Makarova is playing well at 100/1 along with safarova at 80/1.  I have to agree muguruza looks on course for grandslam number 3.

[rinswun]

I know Fred is heavily restricted at both PP and BFSB but for those that aren't there is a very niche bet which I think is priced wrong today.

In the Aussie Rules game today, one of the all time greats, Luke Hodge, is retiring after a storied career including multiple championships as captain of the Hawthorn Hawks. Hodge has been a high possession player throughout his career but naturally seen his numbers fall of a bit with age. However, he has still recorded an average of 23.7 disposals a game this year, even though he noticeably took it easy last week with just 16 touches.

Today, his Hawks play the final game of their season at home against the Western Bulldogs, and for all intents and purposes this is a dead rubber (the Bulldogs have a mathematical chance of making the finals but they'd need an unlikely set of results to fall their way to make it). I think it is highly likely that his team mates look to get Hodge the ball on his farewell as many times as they can (think Kobe's retirement game) so think the Evens and 10/11 about 25 or more disposals should be more like 4/6. I've also had a small dabble on the 30 or more disposals at 4s.

[tikay]

I know Fred is heavily restricted at both PP and BFSB but for those that aren't there is a very niche bet which I think is priced wrong today.

In the Aussie Rules game today, one of the all time greats, Luke Hodge, is retiring after a storied career including multiple championships as captain of the Hawthorn Hawks. Hodge has been a high possession player throughout his career but naturally seen his numbers fall of a bit with age. However, he has still recorded an average of 23.7 disposals a game this year, even though he noticeably took it easy last week with just 16 touches.

Today, his Hawks play the final game of their season at home against the Western Bulldogs, and for all intents and purposes this is a dead rubber (the Bulldogs have a mathematical chance of making the finals but they'd need an unlikely set of results to fall their way to make it). I think it is highly likely that his team mates look to get Hodge the ball on his farewell as many times as they can (think Kobe's retirement game) so think the Evens and 10/11 about 25 or more disposals should be more like 4/6. I've also had a small dabble on the 30 or more disposals at 4s.

What is a "disposal"?

[rinswun]

It's where a player has possession of the ball and gets rid of it either via a hand ball - a fisted punch - or a kick. It's the primary statistic used to show how involved in the play a player has been, alongside marks (catching the ball on the full from a kick that is from 15 yards+ away) and tackles.

[tikay]

It's where a player has possession of the ball and gets rid of it either via a hand ball - a fisted punch - or a kick. It's the primary statistic used to show how involved in the play a player has been, alongside marks (catching the ball on the full from a kick that is from 15 yards+ away) and tackles.

Thanks. Sounds similar to passes in football.

[nellberg]

Caribbean premier league cricket tonight (don't say I don't give you tips for the most high profile games    )

McCarthy is 33's for MOTM, he's won this award twice this season. The reason for the big price is he got shifted down the order to 7 in a big run chase LTO. If he's back up to 3, he's a a 10-12/1 shot here. It's a big "if" so no need to go mad, but 33's is too big.

https://www.bettingkingdom.co.uk/betting-tips/cricket/Caribbean-premier-league/Jamaica-v-St-Lucia-Man-Of-The-Match-Andre-McCarthy/83627

https://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/caribbean-premier-league/jamaica-tallawahs-v-st-lucia-stars/man-of-the-match

[TightEnd]

A year ago, the three most expensive players ever were Bale, Ronaldo, Suarez (£241m together).

Now that's Neymar, Dembélé, Pogba (£384m).

[Doobs]

It is the US Open draw tomorrow (edit 5pm later today). 

Konta is 5th favourite at 13.5/14.5.  That is probably where she is in the World.  Maybe just a little bit behind Halep, Pliskova and Svitolina.  Kerber is going to drop a fair bit in the rankings after this, which is probably where she should be on recent form.  We got 33/1 on Konta at the turn of the year, and this is our last bet at the big prices available then.  I do think she is turning into a very good player and this is her best surface.  She isn't without a chance, and can give anybody a close game right now, but you'd want Muguruza in the other half.  Muguruza looks clear best in the World right now, but she was obviously flattered by the Halep result the other day.  If they meet again, it will be a lot closer.  Who knows where Sharapova should be in the rankings right now, but I wouldn't want to catch her in round 1.

Rybarikova has scraped in to the seeds.  She has probably regressed a bit since Wimbledon.  I saw a quote where she was moaning about still playing the qualifiers the other day, which does seem a bit silly on the face of it.  It seems the US Open can use fairly current rankings, but the Connecticut Open can't.  Don't ask me to explain this, as I can't (help please).  Anyway, no worries as she is seeded, but I probably wouldn't put the same bet on right now as I worry about her mood.  Clutching at straws a bit, but maybe the 75/1 to final is still value?     

Anyway we have one good bet, and one so-so one.   

Not the besr draw.  Halep in the quarter final, then Muguruza in the semi.  Could be worse, Halep has Sharapova in round 1!

[TightEnd]

Murray v Sandgren
Konta v Krunic (halep's quarter)
Nadal v Lajovic

Here's the USOpen first round draw: https://t.co/HLD4cFaXgW

[Doobs]

Murray avoids Nadal and Federer in his half.

[TightEnd]

With Djokovic, Stan, raonic, nishikori out. Murray just back, nadal form not what it was earlier in the year, fed dodgy back....who should we look at at a price? Zverev? Cilic? Thiem? Shapalov?etc

[Doobs]

With Djokovic, Stan, raonic, nishikori out. Murray just back, nadal form not what it was earlier in the year, fed dodgy back....who should we look at at a price? Zverev? Cilic? Thiem? Shapalov?etc

Zverev.  He has best draw and in form.

[Doobs]

With Djokovic, Stan, raonic, nishikori out. Murray just back, nadal form not what it was earlier in the year, fed dodgy back....who should we look at at a price? Zverev? Cilic? Thiem? Shapalov?etc

Zverev.  He has best draw and in form.

I think Murray must be worth a punt at the same price in the same half too. 

[Doobs]

With Djokovic, Stan, raonic, nishikori out. Murray just back, nadal form not what it was earlier in the year, fed dodgy back....who should we look at at a price? Zverev? Cilic? Thiem? Shapalov?etc

Zverev.  He has best draw and in form.

I think Murray must be worth a punt at the same price in the same half too. 

and maybe take Svitolina in the top half of the women's.

e/w double murray and svitolina with Fred/Tote.  Careful thar he doesn't just close your account and take your money.