Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Rybarikova got beaten by Muguruza last night.

[4KSuited]

Rybarikova got beaten by Muguruza last night.

Meh

[4KSuited]

Calling Bergeroo and all other Tennis shrewdies!!

Looking at the Men's side of the US Open 3rd Round matches, I really feel that the bookies have got some prices seriously wrong. Having looked at the stats for the earlier rounds for all the players involved, I have taken on the market favourites with the following four selections:

Troiki @ 2/1 vs Dolgopolov
Goffin @ 5/4 vs Monfils
Millman @ 9/4 vs Kohlschreiber
Del Potro @ EVE vs Bautista-Agut

To my eye, my selections have all got better than Even money chances against their opponents, showing equal if not better first serve in %, double faultage, unforced errors, and (with the exception of Troiki, perhaps) have had smoother passage through the first 2 rounds. Being a bit of a punter, I've done a Yankee on the 4, but what we really need here is a Tennis expert to cast a more expert eye and make a solid rec for Fred.

[Peter-27]

With heavy rain at the Italian GP comes value.

Unfortunately, the number of F1 markets has declined considerably recently which doesn't help us .. I guess we've taken too much money off them during the last few years  

Anyhow, here are my pre-qualifying suggestions:

Race Winner - Sebastian Vettel @ 19/4 with BetStars. In theory, this should be a Mercedes circuit. However, the variability that the rain brings makes Sebastian a bet at anything over 4/1. Suggest £20.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

Pole Position - Sebastian Vettel @ 6/1 with BetStars. As above; and this is a massive price. Take advantage. Suggest £200 EW (1-2 1/3). Not a typo, £400 total. Anything 5/1+ is okay.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/pole-position

Points Finish - Daniil Kvyat @ 7/2 with William Hill. The Toro Rosso cars often come alive in the wet, and while we're not sure of tomorrow's forecast, we know qualifying will be held in mixed conditions. Suggest £10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/points-finish

That's it for now, will probably have some more tomorrow morning.

[TightEnd]

 Sorry I am working at DTD today/tomorrow, will only be on to place bets pre 11am is when off my pile and on a desktop

[Rod Paradise]

Pole Position - Sebastian Vettel @ 6/1 with BetStars. As above; and this is a massive price. Take advantage. Suggest £200 EW (1-2 1/3). Not a typo, £400 total. Anything 5/1+ is okay.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/pole-position

In to 11-2 now, BetStars or Vic - if you want it on on vic text me - will be away from computer soon.

[Peter-27]

Pole Position - Sebastian Vettel @ 6/1 with BetStars. As above; and this is a massive price. Take advantage. Suggest £200 EW (1-2 1/3). Not a typo, £400 total. Anything 5/1+ is okay.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/pole-position

In to 11-2 now, BetStars or Vic - if you want it on on vic text me - will be away from computer soon.

Be careful if you do it now as the session has begun. Sebastian currently P2 after 6:29 of Q1. Currently under red flags after Romain aquaplaned into the barriers.

[Rod Paradise]

Missed it, cheers

[bergeroo]

Calling Bergeroo and all other Tennis shrewdies!!

Looking at the Men's side of the US Open 3rd Round matches, I really feel that the bookies have got some prices seriously wrong. Having looked at the stats for the earlier rounds for all the players involved, I have taken on the market favourites with the following four selections:

Troiki @ 2/1 vs Dolgopolov
Goffin @ 5/4 vs Monfils
Millman @ 9/4 vs Kohlschreiber
Del Potro @ EVE vs Bautista-Agut

To my eye, my selections have all got better than Even money chances against their opponents, showing equal if not better first serve in %, double faultage, unforced errors, and (with the exception of Troiki, perhaps) have had smoother passage through the first 2 rounds. Being a bit of a punter, I've done a Yankee on the 4, but what we really need here is a Tennis expert to cast a more expert eye and make a solid rec for Fred.

Where are your stats from, are they from the tourney so far or from this season or 12 months??

Definitely not a tennis shrewdie but my thoughts are as follows.

Del Potro is overrated by the market. His backhand is not the same since his time out injured with wrist surgery and his form has been very average, even accounting for some tough draws he has had. He definitely can win but I would make RBA a small favourite. He is ahead in hold/break stats 113 to 105.2 on outdoor hard in the last 12 months fwiw.

Goffin v Monfils is no bet for me. Both players carrying injuries and struggling for form. Easy chance for it to end in a retirement or a random injury tweak or fatigue.

Dolgo has had so much controversy about possible match fixing that I'm a bit reluctant to touch his matches. But this is from Dan Weston in his column today.

"The first match where I feel the prices are strange is Viktor Troicki against Alexandr Dolgopolov with Troicki friendless in the market, opening just shy of 3.00 and drifting to 3.20. In their match at Indian Wells in March, Troicki was priced around the 2.20 mark, and while it's fair to say that Troicki's form has been extremely underwhelming since becoming a father fairly recently, it's not like Dolgopolov has particularly impressed either. Dolgopolov is 5-8 on hard court this year in main tour matches, with Troicki's 8-9 record better, and looking at service and return points won percentages, there's little to split the duo, and this makes Troicki a marginal underdog for this, not dissimilar to his price at Indian Wells six months ago. Certainly, Troicki's motivation has been questionable over recent months, but if he's not motivated here in the third round of a Grand Slam, then he may as well quit the sport, and I feel he is a decent price for this."

Kohli v Millman I don't have an opinion yet. I didn't watch any Kohlschreiber matches yet this week so am not sure of his fitness. Millman beat Nick Kygrios by just hitting the ball back in play, being solid and watching him implode the other day.

gl!

[bergeroo]

I bet on Shapovalov to win his quarter at 100/1 but I really like to go against him tomorrow with anything over 6/5 for Carreno-Busta and I'm going to hedge a bit. The Shapovalov hype train is in full effect and I think people are getting carried away. He is very young, hasn't really been tested fitness wise so far. It was an even match vs Kyle Edmund yesterday until Kyle was injured. Simply he is just too short, he has great potential, but PCB is decent on hard courts these days and I'd say there is a must be a good chance it is played on Ashe (the main show court) and in the evening which plays slower which suits PCB.

https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/mens/denis-shapovalov-v-pablo-carreno-busta/winner

[DropTheHammer]

Thanks for the advice there Phill, I'm still clutching that 100-1 ticket along with Querrey to win at 125-1 and Muguruza to win her quarter at 2-1...thanks to all who tipped those as they're giving a nice sweat.

[Peter-27]

Sadly the Ferrari was extremely poor in the wet weather conditions, they only qualified 7th & 8th 

[Newportlad]

Goerges is through to Round 4 where she plays Sloane Stephens.

She is 6/4 to win this match which takes place tonight.

Its been a decent sweat, but should we book looking to Cash out/lay off this bet now?

[Peter-27]

Based on the markets at the moment, I've got no further Italian GP bets to recommend.

[SuuPRlim]

Couple of really cracking bets on the darts today:

Joe Cullen vs Micheal Smith

Cullen Win 13/10.

Joe Cullen has been super consistent all year and his doubling has improved no end, Smith on the other hand has been erratic at best, if these two both bring their A games Smith should win comfortably but I don't think the 3 weeks in Oz has done him any favours whereas Cullen looks very Fresh.

Ratajski vs Kist

Ratajski Win 11/10

Kist is a bit of an enigma in the sense that his stats are pretty awful, however he's got some stones and knows how to win games and LOVES a scrappy match, Ratajski has been solid all year and even though it's his first time in a 1/4 of a Euro tour he played great last two rounds. I think he should be a small favourite here.

Rob Cross vs Peter Wright

Rob Cross Win 13/10

Peter Wright hasn't been playing consistently well for ages, he messes around with his equipment relentlessly and plays way too many events, he stumbled over the line yesterday averaging 87 and really should have got beat, there's a chance he turns up as we know he loves stage darts but I think the chances of him turning up and putting in a stinker are too real to resist this price.