Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

After losing the first, Hawkins now leads 2-1.

[tikay]

3-1 Hawkins now.

[tikay]

Hawkins 3-2

[tikay]

3-3

[Killerkilsby]

Captain bok is delivering!

[tikay]

^^^^^

4-3..........HAWKINS

[tikay]

4-4

Tight one, this, in usual Hawkins style.

[TightEnd]

f the Premier League table was based on Expected Goals it would look like this....

In terms of points, Burnley and Manchester United are massively overperforming

Crystal Palace, Tottenham Hotspur and West Brom are massively underperforming

[tikay]

Nip and tuck this, 5-4 Hawkins, & Bet365 go 10/11 each.

[TightEnd]

taking my mind off the snooker

where is the value now?

https://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/2018-us-masters/winner

1. Patrick Reed (-9): Will this be Reed's moment? He strung together three straight birdies on three different occasions, pushing the lead into double digits under par for the first time all week. Reed finally got his first top-10 in a major at the 2017 PGA Championship, and now the five-time PGA Tour winner is looking to win his first major championship

2. Marc Leishman (-7): The opening holes have been good to Leishman. He's 5 under on the first three holes after two rounds and one of just five players in the field to shoot under par on both Thursday and Friday. He's only played two bad holes after 36 and been better than most of the field on the tough Augusta greens with zero three-putts so far in the tournament.   

3. Henrik Stenson (-4): The Masters is the only major where Stenson hasn't recorded a top-10 finish. He got off to a good start with a 69 on his 42nd birthday yesterday and followed that up with a 70 on Friday to enter the weekend four strokes off the lead.

T4. Rory McIlroy (-4): The scary thing here is that Rory doesn't need his best stuff to win this thing. He's got birdies on five of the eight par-5s from the opening rounds, and even without hitting a ton of fairways, he's been able to save pars and balance his card to remain under par and in the hunt.

T4. Jordan Spieth (-4): Two bad swings -- tee shots on the first two holes -- cost Spieth three strokes right out of the gate, but the takeaway from the former champ's round is positive after turning it around and picking up two birdies on an under-par back nine.

T6. Dustin Johnson (-3): If not for Reed's late-afternoon tear, Johnson would have finished with one of the best rounds of the day. His stellar round of 68 got started with an eagle on the par-5 2nd and included three birdies to just one bogey. Johnson was much better off the tee than he was on Thursday, and it helped set him up not only to score but to avoid bogeys on a tough day for everyone in the field.

T6. Justin Thomas (-3): Few in golf are better or more exciting on a heater than JT. Thomas fired six birdies during his second-round 67 that put him right in the thick of championship contention after going 2 over on Thursday. Less mistakes and impressive accuracy -- particularly on the two front-nine par-3s -- has the No. 2 player in the Official World Golf Rankings in a spot to challenge for No. 1.

T8. Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Justin Rose, Louis Oosthuizen, Bubba Watson, Charley Hoffman (-2): Who among this group has the best chance to make a move on Saturday? Previous history suggests Watson, Fowler, Rose and Oosthuizen all have the potential to put themselves in position to contend on Sunday, but don't rule out Finau continuing this impressive showing in his first Masters appearance after injuring his ankle on Wednesday.

thats a CBS summary

[Ant040689]

f the Premier League table was based on Expected Goals it would look like this....

In terms of points, Burnley and Manchester United are massively overperforming

Crystal Palace, Tottenham Hotspur and West Brom are massively underperforming

At least some validation for me looking like a tit on here this season.

On that note. I suggest a £15 bet of Palace -1.5 Asian handicap or Palace -1 handicap (same bets, different ways about it) at 5/1 or higher.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/bournemouth-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/bournemouth-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

No Benteke today means Townsend and Zaha are likely a front two. When this was last the case I was impressed by them against teams who played quite open at the back and frustrated against teams that sat deep. Bournemouth are more the former. Tomkins returns today to solidify the defence to partner Sakho and Stanislas is out injured as their set piece specialist and with Palace's propensity to be terrible at defending set pieces, that helps.

I just feel as if, if Palace get something going, its a higher chance than in most games that it will be by more than just the one.

[TightEnd]

Crystal Palace -1
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace Handicaps
5/1
Total Stake: 15.00
1 5 10 20 Total Returns: 90.00

pp

[tikay]

Not sure what's going on in the Snooker, I don't have any streams or TV coverage & am following it on Flash Score.

It currently shows Hawkins 5-4 ahead but states "Interrupted". Maybe that just means mid-session interval?

[Tal]

f the Premier League table was based on Expected Goals it would look like this....

In terms of points, Burnley and Manchester United are massively overperforming

Crystal Palace, Tottenham Hotspur and West Brom are massively underperforming

xG combines tens of thousands of games' data to give an approximate probability that a person shooting at goal will score from a certain position.

It assumes that all things are relative: an attacker of a certain level is shooting at a goalkeeper of the equivalent level, in average pitch and weather conditions, where the match has no additional pressures or the team doesn't need to score and where theplayer is hitting it with their stronger foot.

So when Jermain Defoe was playing in League 1 for Bournemouth on loan from Wham and netting every game, he would have been well ahead of his xG, but that would be because he is better (relatively) than the defenders and keeper, so his expected goals actually should be higher than the average.

Commonly, xG is used as a measure of form, but xG can also be used as a measure of ability, in seeing who's ahead and who's below the mean. Messi through on goal and Benteke through on goal have the same xG.

It's wrong to assume that it's purely variance that a team is outperforming xG, though sometimes that is the case. It doesn't really tell us how often a player should score in a given situation; just how often, in similar situations, other people have scored.

[tikay]

Messi through on goal and Benteke through on goal have the same xG.

Ha, extraordinary.