Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/belmont-stakes/winner

Vino in to something like price I expected now, no idea what 1000bet are doing here tbh massive overs 4 of the first 5 obviously if you dont like your account with them backing them all cant be bad

[bergeroo]

Do any of the other tennis followers feel that Fucsovics is far too big at 2/1 vs our Kyle (French 2nd Round)?

He’s come to the French straight from winning the ATP Geneva, defeating our sweat Steve Johnson (slight injury?) in the SF and taking the final with relative ease. He doesn’t seem to be tiring atm, sweeping aside his 1st Round opponent in straight sets today, and has a another day to recover if he needs it before playing on Thursday. Sure, Kyle warrants favouritism - but 2/5 and Fucsovics a 2/1 dog? Perhaps the price is weighted by the same people backing England to win the WC 😉

I think there’s value here, and suggest £25 on Fucso

didn't have a strong opinion about this one and thought the line was about right. Kyle has shown some good stuff on the clay. Let's see what happens!

[Karabiner]

Zidane gone from Madrid

Wenger In!

[Tal]

Zidane gone from Madrid

Wenger In!

No chance. Need someone who's managed a big club and who's managed in Spain.

[Jamier-Host]

Do any of the other tennis followers feel that Fucsovics is far too big at 2/1 vs our Kyle (French 2nd Round)?

He’s come to the French straight from winning the ATP Geneva, defeating our sweat Steve Johnson (slight injury?) in the SF and taking the final with relative ease. He doesn’t seem to be tiring atm, sweeping aside his 1st Round opponent in straight sets today, and has a another day to recover if he needs it before playing on Thursday. Sure, Kyle warrants favouritism - but 2/5 and Fucsovics a 2/1 dog? Perhaps the price is weighted by the same people backing England to win the WC 😉

I think there’s value here, and suggest £25 on Fucso

didn't have a strong opinion about this one and thought the line was about right. Kyle has shown some good stuff on the clay. Let's see what happens!

With the same thinking applied, Evens about the next opponent who has beaten Nadal a couple of times on clay?

[bergeroo]

Do any of the other tennis followers feel that Fucsovics is far too big at 2/1 vs our Kyle (French 2nd Round)?

He’s come to the French straight from winning the ATP Geneva, defeating our sweat Steve Johnson (slight injury?) in the SF and taking the final with relative ease. He doesn’t seem to be tiring atm, sweeping aside his 1st Round opponent in straight sets today, and has a another day to recover if he needs it before playing on Thursday. Sure, Kyle warrants favouritism - but 2/5 and Fucsovics a 2/1 dog? Perhaps the price is weighted by the same people backing England to win the WC 😉

I think there’s value here, and suggest £25 on Fucso

didn't have a strong opinion about this one and thought the line was about right. Kyle has shown some good stuff on the clay. Let's see what happens!

With the same thinking applied, Evens about the next opponent who has beaten Nadal a couple of times on clay?

Fognini was carrying an injury last week which hampered him, I don't think I want to back him in a five set match right now. he is flaky enough at the best of times even without an injury. On what basis do you want to oppose Edmund? Just because he is British? What have you seen that makes you think he is overrated by the market?

[Rod Paradise]

Horsey people got any recommendations for Epsom tomorrow/Saturday? Betyear offer £25 bet tomorrow, free £25 bet on the Oaks. £25 bet Saturday, free £25 bet the Derby.

Personally got no clue apart from Dee Ex Bee, and have already backed it a fair amount.

Thanks.

[Jamier-Host]

Fognini was carrying an injury last week which hampered him, I don't think I want to back him in a five set match right now. he is flaky enough at the best of times even without an injury. On what basis do you want to oppose Edmund? Just because he is British? What have you seen that makes you think he is overrated by the market?

Me? No reason at all. Was just enquiring based on the previous post.

[Karabiner]

Horsey people got any recommendations for Epsom tomorrow/Saturday? Betyear offer £25 bet tomorrow, free £25 bet on the Oaks. £25 bet Saturday, free £25 bet the Derby.

Personally got no clue apart from Dee Ex Bee, and have already backed it a fair amount.

Thanks.

A judge that I rate likes Bye Bye Baby@7/1 ew in The Oaks Rod.

[Rod Paradise]

Horsey people got any recommendations for Epsom tomorrow/Saturday? Betyear offer £25 bet tomorrow, free £25 bet on the Oaks. £25 bet Saturday, free £25 bet the Derby.

Personally got no clue apart from Dee Ex Bee, and have already backed it a fair amount.

Thanks.

A judge that I rate likes Bye Bye Baby@7/1 ew in The Oaks Rod.

Cheers! I'm a sucker for a free bet, but not got much of a clue on the horses.

[doubleup]

Horsey people got any recommendations for Epsom tomorrow/Saturday? Betyear offer £25 bet tomorrow, free £25 bet on the Oaks. £25 bet Saturday, free £25 bet the Derby.

Personally got no clue apart from Dee Ex Bee, and have already backed it a fair amount.

Thanks.

A judge that I rate likes Bye Bye Baby@7/1 ew in The Oaks Rod.

Cheers! I'm a sucker for a free bet, but not got much of a clue on the horses.

Karabiner wash your mouth out!

The first rule of free bet betting is NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER EVER put a free bet on each-way!!!!!

[Newportlad]

Horsey people got any recommendations for Epsom tomorrow/Saturday? Betyear offer £25 bet tomorrow, free £25 bet on the Oaks. £25 bet Saturday, free £25 bet the Derby.

Personally got no clue apart from Dee Ex Bee, and have already backed it a fair amount.

Thanks.

A judge that I rate likes Bye Bye Baby@7/1 ew in The Oaks Rod.

Cheers! I'm a sucker for a free bet, but not got much of a clue on the horses.

Karabiner wash your mouth out!

The first rule of free bet betting is NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER EVER put a free bet on each-way!!!!!

+1

[Rod Paradise]

Horsey people got any recommendations for Epsom tomorrow/Saturday? Betyear offer £25 bet tomorrow, free £25 bet on the Oaks. £25 bet Saturday, free £25 bet the Derby.

Personally got no clue apart from Dee Ex Bee, and have already backed it a fair amount.

Thanks.

A judge that I rate likes Bye Bye Baby@7/1 ew in The Oaks Rod.

Cheers! I'm a sucker for a free bet, but not got much of a clue on the horses.

Karabiner wash your mouth out!

The first rule of free bet betting is NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER EVER put a free bet on each-way!!!!!

Can I ask why?

[Karabiner]

Horsey people got any recommendations for Epsom tomorrow/Saturday? Betyear offer £25 bet tomorrow, free £25 bet on the Oaks. £25 bet Saturday, free £25 bet the Derby.

Personally got no clue apart from Dee Ex Bee, and have already backed it a fair amount.

Thanks.

A judge that I rate likes Bye Bye Baby@7/1 ew in The Oaks Rod.

Cheers! I'm a sucker for a free bet, but not got much of a clue on the horses.

Karabiner wash your mouth out!

The first rule of free bet betting is NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER EVER put a free bet on each-way!!!!!

Didn't realize it was for a free bet as only skim-read the post, thought he just wanted pointers for today.

The way to maximize value with a free bet is to back something to win between 4/1 and 10/1 I believe.

[doubleup]

The problem with a free bet EW is that they deduct the stake from your return.

Lets imagine you have a 10-1 chance, (which we will say for the sake of illustration is the true odds ie 9%) and place a free bet of £10 to win.  It will win 9% of the time, so your long term return will be 9% of £100 ie  £9.

If instead you put £5 ew on the same horse and get 1/5 odds for the place (2-1 and again we will assume that these are the true odds ie 33%)

When the horse wins ( 9% of the time) you get £50 from the win part and £10 from the place part, so equity of 9% of $60 - £5.40.

When the horse places and doesn't win - 24% of the time - they deduct the losing win bet from your return - so you only get £5 paid out!  So your equity is from the place part of the bet is 24% of £5 - £1.20


So in summary with the odds described:

placing a £10 bet on a win is getting you a long term return of £9

placing a £10 bet each way is getting a long term return of £6.60

Which is a massive difference.

The second rule of free bet betting is to use the bet on as long odds as possible where these odds are reasonable close to true odds.

Remember the first example above and compare it to putting the free bet on an even money shot - this will win 50% of the time, so your equity will be 50% of £10 - £5 much less than the long term return of the 10-1 chance.

Ralph's suggestion, but WIN ONLY is fine for the purpose of this particular scenario, but the restrictions in the use of the free bet make the whole offer a bit less attractive that it seems at first sight, as ideally you would want a 10-1+ chance which isn't too far off true odds to maximise the value.  Remember also that you are losing a bit when you put on the first bet.