Tips for Tikay

[StuartHopkin]

The problem with a free bet EW is that they deduct the stake from your return.

Lets imagine you have a 10-1 chance, (which we will say for the sake of illustration is the true odds ie 9%) and place a free bet of £10 to win.  It will win 9% of the time, so your long term return will be 9% of £100 ie  £9.

If instead you put £5 ew on the same horse and get 1/5 odds for the place (2-1 and again we will assume that these are the true odds ie 33%)

When the horse wins ( 9% of the time) you get £50 from the win part and £10 from the place part, so equity of 9% of $60 - £5.40.

When the horse places and doesn't win - 24% of the time - they deduct the losing win bet from your return - so you only get £5 paid out!  So your equity is from the place part of the bet is 24% of £5 - £1.20


So in summary with the odds described:

placing a £10 bet on a win is getting you a long term return of £9

placing a £10 bet each way is getting a long term return of £6.60

Which is a massive difference.

The second rule of free bet betting is to use the bet on as long odds as possible where these odds are reasonable close to true odds.

Remember the first example above and compare it to putting the free bet on an even money shot - this will win 50% of the time, so your equity will be 50% of £10 - £5 much less than the long term return of the 10-1 chance.

Ralph's suggestion, but WIN ONLY is fine for the purpose of this particular scenario, but the restrictions in the use of the free bet make the whole offer a bit less attractive that it seems at first sight, as ideally you would want a 10-1+ chance which isn't too far off true odds to maximise the value.  Remember also that you are losing a bit when you put on the first bet.

Overall message is correct but BetEveryFrickingDay don't deduct the win part from your return.

[arbboy]

The way i always think about free bets is as an arber.  If i have a £10 free bet (which has no cash value as the stake is never refunded) how am i most likely to realise that free bet value into cash?

I find this a much easier way for the lay man to understand it.  Let's assume for simplicity you don't pay any commission on laying on betfair and can lay the same price on betfair as you are backing with the free bet.  Unlikely but it is possible (to even lay shorter occasionally)

If you have a £10 free bet and you want to turn it into cash on bf ie £10 in cash lets look at the difference between backing and laying different prices.  If you back something with a free bet and lay it on betfair at the same price and it wins your free bet profits go straight to betfair to cover your losses and you break even.  If it loses you turn your free bet into its cash value £10.

So we back an even money shot and lay it at evens.  50% of the time we break even 50% of the time we turn our free bet into £10 cash.  Therefore the expected value of the free bet is £5

We back a 9/1 shot and lay it at 9/1.  10% of the time a 9/1 shot wins (1 in 10) so we break even and 90% of the time we turn our free bet into £10 in cash.  EV of free bet is £9

we back a 50/1 shot and lay it at 50/1.  2% of the time the 50/1 shot wins (1 in 50 roughly) so we break even and 98% of the time we turn our free bet into £10 in cash.  Ev of the free bet is £9.80

Doing it this way stops having the huge variance of backing 50/1 shots which is the best way to use the free bet and realise the biggest cash value from it.

As doobs has said it gets more and more difficult to find 50/1 shots you can lay at 50/1 on the machine as the price gets bigger.  It is possible to find them just harder.  Plus you have commissiion to pay bf and a reasonable bankroll in bf to lay 50/1 shots.

[doubleup]

Overall message is correct but BetEveryFrickingDay don't deduct the win part from your return.

Not sure if that is standard, certainly isn't at Badblokes

If you are placing an each way bet using a free bet token, please be aware that the entire free bet stake will be substracted (sic) from any returns.

For example, if you place a £5 each way bet on a selection at 8/1 which places at 1/4 odds, the returns would amount to £15.00. After subtracting the £10 free bet stake, the returns you would receive from the bet would be £5.00.

https://help.ladbrokes.com/s/article/LB-Placing-an-each-way-bet-using-a-free-bet-token

in any case, you are clearly reducing the value hugely as even with the best EW terms, you are betting at shorter odds.

So either take the variance of longer odds or lay off as arbhoy suggests.

[4KSuited]

Do any of the other tennis followers feel that Fucsovics is far too big at 2/1 vs our Kyle (French 2nd Round)?

He’s come to the French straight from winning the ATP Geneva, defeating our sweat Steve Johnson (slight injury?) in the SF and taking the final with relative ease. He doesn’t seem to be tiring atm, sweeping aside his 1st Round opponent in straight sets today, and has a another day to recover if he needs it before playing on Thursday. Sure, Kyle warrants favouritism - but 2/5 and Fucsovics a 2/1 dog? Perhaps the price is weighted by the same people backing England to win the WC 😉

I think there’s value here, and suggest £25 on Fucso

didn't have a strong opinion about this one and thought the line was about right. Kyle has shown some good stuff on the clay. Let's see what happens!

With the same thinking applied, Evens about the next opponent who has beaten Nadal a couple of times on clay?

Fognini was carrying an injury last week which hampered him, I don't think I want to back him in a five set match right now. he is flaky enough at the best of times even without an injury. On what basis do you want to oppose Edmund? Just because he is British? What have you seen that makes you think he is overrated by the market?

My original bet suggestion was based on Fucso’s recent good form on clay, and that the 2/1 on offer looked like value. My comment about punters backing England included a 😉, so I thought that was sufficient for it to be regarded lighly.

Meanwhile, I see that Fognini has been cut to 4/5 whilst Kyle is Evens for their match tomorrow. To be honest, I fancy Kyle more against a guy who just might be nursing an injury.

[horseplayer]

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/australia/world-cup-australia-specials/top-goalscorer

This is a good market as are most of these team specials.

MATTHEW LECKIE is a good bet at 10s and a very good one at 16s with 365 if someone can for fred?

Suggest £30 at 10s or £50 at 16s if someone can get it for fred

Leckie scored two against Czech Republic in game going on now as we speak, had a good season in Germany for Hertha and plays as a winger for Aus rather than a full back at club level (usually)

Highly doubt Cahill will play enough unlikely to start anyway, Jedinak joint fav as on pens which is understandable but shows there must be a bet here.

6 in 51 caps for Leckie, 5 goals in the german top flight this season mainly from full back makes 16s way to big for me

[bergeroo]

I like it. He is pacy and dangerous and Cahill might not even start!

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/australia/world-cup-australia-specials/top-goalscorer

This is a good market as are most of these team specials.

MATTHEW LECKIE is a good bet at 10s and a very good one at 16s with 365 if someone can for fred?

Suggest £30 at 10s or £50 at 16s if someone can get it for fred

Leckie scored two against Czech Republic in game going on now as we speak, had a good season in Germany for Hertha and plays as a winger for Aus rather than a full back at club level (usually)

Highly doubt Cahill will play enough unlikely to start anyway, Jedinak joint fav as on pens which is understandable but shows there must be a bet here.

6 in 51 caps for Leckie, 5 goals in the german top flight this season mainly from full back makes 16s way to big for me

[bookiebasher]

Got you £50 at 16-1 for Fred if Fred wants it ?

[horseplayer]

thanks Bookie I am off to a baldy to try and get on myself

[bookiebasher]

I got £100 on in total , if you can't get any 16s happy to split the other £50 for you.

[bergeroo]

Any thoughts on Kolarov 25/1 for Serbia?

[horseplayer]

Any thoughts on Kolarov 25/1 for Serbia?

Think one of the hardest sides to evaluate as the starting eleven looks far from solid especially going forward

What I will say is the previews are mostly coming out next week no doubt they will affect these side markets so this is the best time to look for an edge imo

[horseplayer]

I got £100 on in total , if you can't get any 16s happy to split the other £50 for you.

Yes please take the 50 ran out of time getting to baldy

Thanks

[tikay]

Zidane gone from Madrid

Wow.

It's not like he failed to win trophies, is it?

[horseplayer]

Zidane gone from Madrid

Wow.

It's not like he failed to win trophies, is it?

His choice, would imagine for all the benefits lasting 3 years at a club like Madrid in this era is quite draining probably takes a year out at least

[tikay]

Zidane gone from Madrid

Wow.

It's not like he failed to win trophies, is it?

His choice, would imagine for all the benefits lasting 3 years at a club like Madrid in this era is quite draining probably takes a year out at least

Ahh, never realised that.

I guess 3 years there pretty much pays the bills for a lifetime, too.