Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

 

Daily Report as @ 0905, Saturday September 22nd

This report covers TWO days.

We are exactly neutral over the last 48 hours.

We lost £70 on Thursday, & we won £70 yesterday. As you were then.

Despite over 200 Posts over the 2 days, only three new bets were placed, all have now completed, 2 losers, & one winner.

The two losers were sub-market bets totalling a mercifully small on the Giants @ Panthers debacle. Just one of those nights....

The winner was yet another quirky bet by hector, who gave us "Drop Goal to be scored" in a Rugby League affair. "NO drop Goal" was long odds on, but we had a juicy 7/2 for our bet, & it panned out exactly & precisely as hector had prophesised, for a profit of £70, which wiped out Thursday's hiccup. Coffee Cake for hector.

We have a number of small interests in the T20WC, but MCC appears to have failed to deliver his Daily Report. I'll get milligan to have a word.

Lots of great debate in the last 48 hours, on Thursday it was on the South Africa T20WC match. After an initial suggestion by hector, the thing was examined & interrogated thoroughly, & in due course, the combined minds of Fred came up with the winner - De Villiers Levi to be top SA batter bloke, & a large bet was strongly recommended, even demanded. Luckily I ignored their implorings, & limited the bet to £20. The bet won lost.

Yesterday the major debate was about Blackburn v 'Boro.

It began with "Blackburn are nailed on, then the Value Debate commenced, & as is so often the case, eventually sentiment turned 180 degrees, & it became more of a view that 'Boro would be the value.

'Boro went off @ 18/5, & absolutely crushed Blackburn, the home team never looked up for it, they were mostly sullen & disinterested, & the crowd sang "Kean is a wanker" & "Kean out" for almost the full 90 minutes, which no doubt helped uninspire their players. Fred, however, was on the sidelines.

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[tikay]

Scarlets host the Ospreys in the RaboDirect Pro 12 tonight and their respective fortunes couldn't be any different. Scarlets have played 3, won 3, impressively smashing Leinster, whilst running in 7 tries. Ospreys have been very poor losing their first 3 and being thoroughly out played by Glasgow last time out.
Scarlets have scored 14 tries in their first 3 matches and as an indicator of their style of play, 13 have been scored by backs. Welsh international, George North, has scored 4 in 3 games and is on fire. He is currently 8/1 for first try scorer and e/w plays quarter odds the first 3 trys on Paddy Power. In a local derby likely to be hard fought, North could prove to be the difference.
I suggest a tenner e/w on the Scarlets flyer.

Guess you missed this one?

The form book was well and truly turned on its head as the Ospreys dominated the Scarlets up front. To show you what sort of game it was, veteran prop Duncan Jones, who was only on the pitch for 52 minutes, got man of the match! It was thoroughly deserved as well. Mr North gave us the ultimate sweat, going over in the 81st minute. Unfortunately it wasn't the first try of the match but it was the third which left us with a £10 win.
Will probably have a bet for the Blues game later.

I'm afraid I did miss it, yes. Been a rather hectic 48 hours for me, & I could not keep up with everything.

Well done on the mini-bink, unlucky in not getting the lot. I watched some of it on "Scrum", looked a bit rough.

If you plan to tip stuff for today, I will be offline between 1pm & 4pm approx.

[TightEnd]

Tonight's NFL match up sees The Giants visit Carolina, Charlotte to be precise

This sees Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks RG3 and Cam Newton battle in what should be a fun one

(Heisman Trophy: annual vote top college football player)

Newton was drafted first last year, was Rookie of the year

Griffin drafted second this year, started like a Mid West breakfast diner potato waffle on fire

idiot alert ^^^

I came to this match wanting to look at the match up between Newton and the Giants Defense

(Defense, 11 a side, a "front seven" of linemen and linebackers, big and ugly and a "secondary" of quick cornerbacks and safeties to disrput passes, tackle receivers etc)

The Giants have a phenomenal defensive front seven. Lots of pass-rushers, stout against the run. Jason Pierre Paul, if you can watch him, is just sensational. Great athlete. The Giants are far less phenomenal in the secondary, and stopping the pass

Last year Newton set two records

Most rushing yards by a rookie quarterback: 706
Most rushing touchdowns in a single season by a quarterback: 14

Those 706 rushing yards over 16 games included a 49 yard run. Average per game 44 yards. Average yards per carry 5.6

So he's good. He's big, throws and is mobile

This year 75 rushing yards in two games. Average per game 37.5 yards. Average yards per carry 4.2. Interestingly Newton rushed for 4 week 1, 71 week 2 against contrasting defenses *

An added piece of detail is the Carolina best rushing back Stewart missed the first game too, so arguably it was possible for the Tampa defense to key in on Newton a bit more on run plays, lowering that figure

Anyway, back to the point. I know Newton is a great runner, everyone knows this. It's in the price

What should be the rushing yards spread for Newton this game?

40-44 yards per game over an 18 game sample

You'd set it at? 45-46? To allow for most randoms generally being buyers of a marquee name like Newton in a national TV contest? Take a bit of the margin out for the buyers?

I might

So I look at the actual spread

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-giants-at-carolina-panthers/total-rushing-yds-cam-newton

and its 50.5 points in some UK places

Interesting

The match up and betting psychology is key here

Everyone knows he can run
The Giants are one of the best Defensive front sevens
The Giants can be passed on, so Newton has relatively easy pickings here **
The quoted pivot price is high

The relevant stat for Rushing Yards per game is in here

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game

NYG mid pack, but only allowed 79 last week, much better than the week before

* The Panthers played New Orleans week 2. One of the worst teams at stopping the run. Infact their opponents run on them more than any other team. See bottom of the ranking on:

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-attempts-per-game


** The following extract from a SI report illustrates the point

"Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz had 199 and 179 yards receiving, respectively, as the Giants (1-1) did enough to overcome Manning's dismal first 30 minutes. The stellar performance also allowed New York to prevail despite another rough day for its secondary, which Josh Freeman victimized for 243 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 completions.

Those coverage issues could prove fatal against Newton, who passed for 253 yards and ran for 71 with two total touchdowns in Carolina's 35-27 victory over New Orleans last week.

The Panthers (1-1) kept the Saints off balance by employing a mix of runs and passes for the athletic Newton - a problem Carolina won't have to worry about against Manning, a classic drop-back passer.

"You do read option, read option, read option and then get them to play seven or eight in the box and you've got so many variations of plays and passes you can run off that," Newton said.

For the Giants, the challenge will be maintaining tight coverage when Newton scrambles to buy time for his receivers, and they're hoping their powerful pass rush helps to contain him as well. Newton has been sacked four times in two games.

New York's struggling defensive backs, though, have been unable to prevent opposing receivers from having big games, with Vincent Jackson racking up 128 yards and a touchdown on five catches last week. Next up is the Panthers' Steve Smith , who had 104 yards on just three catches versus New Orleans after a 106-yard effort against Tampa Bay in the opener."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/gameflash/2012/09/20/4925/index.html#ixzz270o5tCkP

Recommended £50 Under 50.5 New York Giants at Carolina Panthers Total Rushing Yds - Cam Newton 10/11 with Ladbrokes.

Frustrated this didn't get a near miss award tikay. It won so hard held that Piggott was smoking a cheroot on top!

[tikay]

 


What's coming up?

The Singapore F1 Grand Prix qualifying is today. We are on a podium finish for Perez.

In racing, it is the Ayr Gold Cup, where they go 11/1 the jolly……

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ayr/15:30

Lots of football action…..



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship

The T20WC continues, & today, at last, we see some close match ups, two of them in fact, the first of which starts at 11am THIS MORNING. Some of our running bets on the T20WC will be in action today, too.

South Africa look (to me) amazing value @ Evens v Sri Lanka…..

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/sri-lanka-v-south-africa/winner

Whilst this afternoon, Aussie take on the West Indies……


http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/australia-v-west-indies/winner


Please be aware I will be unable to action any bets  between 1pm & 4pm, approx.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Tonight's NFL match up sees The Giants visit Carolina, Charlotte to be precise

This sees Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks RG3 and Cam Newton battle in what should be a fun one

(Heisman Trophy: annual vote top college football player)

Newton was drafted first last year, was Rookie of the year

Griffin drafted second this year, started like a Mid West breakfast diner potato waffle on fire

idiot alert ^^^

I came to this match wanting to look at the match up between Newton and the Giants Defense

(Defense, 11 a side, a "front seven" of linemen and linebackers, big and ugly and a "secondary" of quick cornerbacks and safeties to disrput passes, tackle receivers etc)

The Giants have a phenomenal defensive front seven. Lots of pass-rushers, stout against the run. Jason Pierre Paul, if you can watch him, is just sensational. Great athlete. The Giants are far less phenomenal in the secondary, and stopping the pass

Last year Newton set two records

Most rushing yards by a rookie quarterback: 706
Most rushing touchdowns in a single season by a quarterback: 14

Those 706 rushing yards over 16 games included a 49 yard run. Average per game 44 yards. Average yards per carry 5.6

So he's good. He's big, throws and is mobile

This year 75 rushing yards in two games. Average per game 37.5 yards. Average yards per carry 4.2. Interestingly Newton rushed for 4 week 1, 71 week 2 against contrasting defenses *

An added piece of detail is the Carolina best rushing back Stewart missed the first game too, so arguably it was possible for the Tampa defense to key in on Newton a bit more on run plays, lowering that figure

Anyway, back to the point. I know Newton is a great runner, everyone knows this. It's in the price

What should be the rushing yards spread for Newton this game?

40-44 yards per game over an 18 game sample

You'd set it at? 45-46? To allow for most randoms generally being buyers of a marquee name like Newton in a national TV contest? Take a bit of the margin out for the buyers?

I might

So I look at the actual spread

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-giants-at-carolina-panthers/total-rushing-yds-cam-newton

and its 50.5 points in some UK places

Interesting

The match up and betting psychology is key here

Everyone knows he can run
The Giants are one of the best Defensive front sevens
The Giants can be passed on, so Newton has relatively easy pickings here **
The quoted pivot price is high

The relevant stat for Rushing Yards per game is in here

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game

NYG mid pack, but only allowed 79 last week, much better than the week before

* The Panthers played New Orleans week 2. One of the worst teams at stopping the run. Infact their opponents run on them more than any other team. See bottom of the ranking on:

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-attempts-per-game


** The following extract from a SI report illustrates the point

"Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz had 199 and 179 yards receiving, respectively, as the Giants (1-1) did enough to overcome Manning's dismal first 30 minutes. The stellar performance also allowed New York to prevail despite another rough day for its secondary, which Josh Freeman victimized for 243 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 completions.

Those coverage issues could prove fatal against Newton, who passed for 253 yards and ran for 71 with two total touchdowns in Carolina's 35-27 victory over New Orleans last week.

The Panthers (1-1) kept the Saints off balance by employing a mix of runs and passes for the athletic Newton - a problem Carolina won't have to worry about against Manning, a classic drop-back passer.

"You do read option, read option, read option and then get them to play seven or eight in the box and you've got so many variations of plays and passes you can run off that," Newton said.

For the Giants, the challenge will be maintaining tight coverage when Newton scrambles to buy time for his receivers, and they're hoping their powerful pass rush helps to contain him as well. Newton has been sacked four times in two games.

New York's struggling defensive backs, though, have been unable to prevent opposing receivers from having big games, with Vincent Jackson racking up 128 yards and a touchdown on five catches last week. Next up is the Panthers' Steve Smith , who had 104 yards on just three catches versus New Orleans after a 106-yard effort against Tampa Bay in the opener."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/gameflash/2012/09/20/4925/index.html#ixzz270o5tCkP

Recommended £50 Under 50.5 New York Giants at Carolina Panthers Total Rushing Yds - Cam Newton 10/11 with Ladbrokes.

Frustrated this didn't get a near miss award tikay. It won so hard held that Piggott was smoking a cheroot on top!

Patience, Rich, "The Ones That Got Away" is in progress......

[TightEnd]

T20WC Daily Report

Two games yesterday, both extremely one sided.

Bangladesh bowled tripe and Brendon McCullum helped himself to a T20 World record 123. Despite some lusty hitting in response, NZ won handily

Then, aided by Luke Wright's 99 of 53 balls, England trounced Afghanistan. Thanks to the unwelcome absence of the Thread principal, we were unable to have a pop onto mulitple calls to back Afghanistan sixes and drawn sixes totals and the like, all of which would have lost

All joking apart, these games highlight the extreme folly of the scheduling of this tournament. Four groups of three, with a minnow in each group, and the minnows out of the event before the first weekend is out. Next time gentlemen, put a couple of the big clashes on early to engender some local interest and start the thing off with a bang

Ticket prices are very cheap in Sri Lanka, but grounds are mostly empty. This isn't too surprising, as until we hit the four team groups, these early skirmishes are like Prawn Cocktail at a Harvester. You know you need to have a starter, but ultimately they are unsatisfying.

Today though, things crank up a notch

South Africa play Sri Lanka at 11am. This really is a pick em, 10/11 each of two

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/sri-lanka-v-south-africa

Australia play the West Indies at 3pm. West Indies odds against underdogs

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/australia-v-west-indies/winner

If the West Indies lose, they face an interesting winner takes all against Ireland on Monday. That apart, all four of these will go through, just a question of who wins the groups.


Portfolio wise, we remain -£20 with £102.20 forward invested

The runs for McCullum and Wright are mildly irritating for the Kohli top scorer bet, but its early days

All of the below are in action today

Malinga, Top Sri Lanka Bowler, £40 @ 15/8, maldini32.

Australia to score MOST SIXES, £20 @ 11/2, hector.

Virat Kohli, Top Batsman £20 @ 16/1, Dung.  

Dilshan, batter with most sixes, £6.10 EW @ 80/1, maldini.

Dilshan, batter with most sixes, £5 EW @ 66/1, maldini.

[hector62]

Is Dilshan the same Dilshan with 2 different bets or have we backed Tilikaratne Dilshan and Dilshan Munaweera ? Excuse spelling as can't be bothered to Google. Plural must be Dilshans methinks.

[TightEnd]

Is Dilshan the same Dilshan with 2 different bets or have we backed Tilikaratne Dilshan and Dilshan Munaweera ? Excuse spelling as can't be bothered to Google. Plural must be Dilshans methinks.

We have backed Tilly, twice, not two Dilshae.

[tikay]

Is Dilshan the same Dilshan with 2 different bets or have we backed Tilikaratne Dilshan and Dilshan Munaweera ? Excuse spelling as can't be bothered to Google. Plural must be Dilshans methinks.

As Tighty, aka MCC explained, they are both for Tilly. The reason there are TWO bets on the Spready is because we got "Restricted" on the first bet, so topped it up elsewhere.

[ACE2M]

I'm backing Stoke to win at the bridge today, any support for Fred following suit?

Stoke are underated this year, our team has good players all over the pitch, strong, fit, determined - Chelsea are the overated, over paid and in a false position. They've been lucky to win their games so far. Every one knows Hazard now and his great start will drop off. Crouch is going to own luiz and Terry today and bring N'Zonzi right into the game, just wish he would consider not starting Walters but he does have his good points.

I just don't see us as 9/1, more like 11/2.

[tikay]

The ones that got away….

Talk about making a pigs ear…..

Thursday was about as embarrassing as it gets.

In cricket, Dubai Posted this…..

Take the 9-2 Levi. Its massive, i had max they would lay

In one of the most spectacular misclicks in Fred’s history, I managed to back De Villiers by mistake. Dubai then commented….

How we back De Villiers? Levi was 9/2 and a genuine 9/4 shot once they get less than 120, De Villiers 9/2 and if bats at 4 probably is a 6/1 chance!

Bugger. The “correct” bet got home, without breaking sweat.

I was mortified. I’m at the age when I constantly self-examine my mental efficiency, & this caused me some soul-searching. For balance, I had an incredibly busy day elsewhere, & Fred was very busy that day, but there’s no excuse really, & I cost Fred plenty. I had a look at my misclick history for Fred, we have placed 653 bets so far, & this was my 7th misclick. (I record them on my off-sheet spready, as I bear the cost there). I suppose a 1% misclick rate is not too bad, but they all seem to be missed winners. Move on, next case. 

Then we had the Panthers – Giants debacle.

Huge interest in the game, & lots of recommends. The main bet came down to a head-to-head between two eminent NFL experts, Bobby1 & Tighty, & I was struggling to decide in a confined timeframe. I flipped the coin & lost.

Tighty had earlier written one of THE most compelling cases I have ever seen, ending with….

Recommended £50 Under 50.5 New York Giants at Carolina Panthers Total Rushing Yds - Cam Newton 10/11 with Ladbrokes.

I can recite those words from memory, as I re-read them 937 times during the actual game…..never did a bet get home so easily, it was like Piggott on John Cherry at Chester.

In fact, the whole ball-game was a disaster, & only nittiness prevented us from a much bigger loss. I watched the whole game, & it was groan after groan. Simple catches from kick offs fumbled, intercepts galore, fumbles, sacks, the lot.

Guess this is the thing with betting, & poker, it’s those highs & lows, they are the buzz.

We are fortunate to still be in profit for September, though the figure should be nearer £300 I reckon.

Shoulda woulda coulda….. 

[Tonji]

In pedaling news. Marianne Vos will likely win at the Worlds women road race. The Beeb will cover it live from 3.30pm. Heavens, cycling & women on BBC1 (welcome to Olympic legacy, keep it up).

[ACE2M]

In pedaling news. Marianne Vos will likely win at the Worlds women road race. The Beeb will cover it live from 3.30pm. Heavens, cycling & women on BBC1 (welcome to Olympic legacy, keep it up).

I'm really liking Pooley at 12/1 e/w. any thoughts?

[Tonji]

In pedaling news. Marianne Vos will likely win at the Worlds women road race. The Beeb will cover it live from 3.30pm. Heavens, cycling & women on BBC1 (welcome to Olympic legacy, keep it up).

I'm really liking Pooley at 12/1 e/w. any thoughts?

Yes in with a shout, but I've not looked into the race in any depth, only that the route is set up for the home champ Vos.

I've only had a couple of small EW interest only bets on Emma Johansson 20/1 & Elisa Longo Borghini 40/1.

[horseplayer]

Two bet suggestions today

MATT DERBYSHIRE first goalscorer 9-1 bet365 £15 eway

Matt Derbyshire to score two or more bet365 £5 22-1

Matt Derbyshire to score three or more bet365 £5 100-1

OLDHAM travel to Brentford today as outsiders which is fair enough, however the recent 4 month signings of both the aforementioned Derbyshire and former child prodigy Jose Baxter look inspired already.

Derbyshire for somebody still relatively young has had more clubs than jack nicklaus although i think he is very unlucky to find himself in league one as he is a better player than that. His goalscoring record in greece and for blackburn tells you that , more importantly he has scored two in two starts for oldham and also had two goals disallowed in the week.

Brentford are a decent side but generally concede at home and with bet365 we get unlimited places on the first goalscorer for the eway part.


CHRISTIAN BENTEKE £10 eway 10-1 first scorer bet365

CHRISTIAN BENTEKE £5 two or more 20-1 bet365

CHRISTIAN BENTEKE £5 three or more 100-1 bet365



A slightly lesser fancy at the same price is CHRISTIAN BENTEKE for aston villa vs southampton (10-1 eway bet365)

Had a good record in belgium scored from bench on debut last week and all indications suggest he will start today (lambert quoted that he was unplayable), i like southampton but they have had the most shots against them in the league so far and look horribly vulnerable through the middle.

thats my lot for today

good luck all