Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Not very bright of the Dortmund keeper to try the verbals on Balotelli of all people, and the penalty, like all Balotelli pens, was pure theatre.

He doesn't miss them. Annoyingly.

[Nico29]

Looks like I overestimated Man City and completely underestimated Dortmund.

Not totaly sure why Mancini has had to mess with such a good defence this season (Lescott especially) from last year, nor why Tevez didn't start tonight.

Great start for my tips in this thread, though I really did think it was clear value and would spew again I suppose.

[Chompy]

Very impressed with Dortmund, like a high-class Martin O'Neill team. Will see if anyone's nuts enough to offer 33-1 in the morning.

[tikay]

Very impressed with Dortmund, like a high-class Martin O'Neill team. Will see if anyone's nuts enough to offer 33-1 in the morning.

25/1 currently, though maybe they have not reacted to tonight's performance yet.

[Dubai]

If u can get 25s its 18s to lay bf

[tikay]

If u can get 25s its 18s to lay bf

Whilst I fiffed & faffed before eventually growing a pair & deciding to do this, the Betfair lay price went from 18 to 21, at which stage my pair was counterfeited.

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr Tikay. Hector's house is still a cake free zone and will remain so unless the Aussie smitters beat the West Indies on Friday. Tomorrow sees the start of the Alfred Dunhill links jobbie. 3 different courses and a pro-am to boot so I would want someone who has performed well before in this tournament. 3 years ago Rafael Cabrera-Bello finished 4th and he comes to the tournament in good form having finished 9th and 10th in his last 2 starts. He likes links golf, having finished 2nd in the Irish open this year. He is well worth backing with a couple of speculative cup cakes.

Recommend Cabrera-Bello £5 e/w @ 35-1 Boyles.

Something for the weekend Sir?

After last weekend's golf excitement, & our Great Escape, this will do well to equal it, but it might just give us some fun for an affordable tenner.

Thanks hector.


We missed the 35/1, only SkyBet still offer it, & I don't shop there, so we have £5 EW with Paddy Power, Carbera-Bella, @ 33/1, quarter odds 1,2,3,4,5.


ON


Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Outright Betting
04-10-2012 09:00
Outright Betting
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5
Cabrera Bello, Rafael @ 33/1
 
 
Single: Cabrera Bello, Rafael @ 33/1
2 lines at £5.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £10.00
Potential returns: £216.25
No: O/23146337/0000159

 

[doubleup]

I am moving from William Hill now as they are still dragging their feet about the refund.

So where do I go, where do the people advise from this thread? I have account with Betfred & Laddies, so no need to sign up there. So which ones are best, and maybe some sign up offers around?

Firstly, and most importantly, get yourself a Betfair and/or Betdaq account.

surely if he likes football betting, a Pinnacle account would be better - they are quite often a better price when 5% commission deducted.  I think BF are now only worthwhile for football if you are fairly certain the price will move and allow you to green up.

Example
True odds 60% 1.67
Offered odds
2 on BF
1.975 on pinnacle
If we let the bet run we get 6 wins from 10
For a profit after commission
1.7 on BF
1.85 in pinnacle

However if the BF price moves to 1.67 we can lay 1.2 at 1.67 for a profit before commission of .2 which is .19 after commission x 10 goes = total profit of 1.9


Also the above effect has some relevance to the Freds ongoing greening up arguement

[aaron1867]

I am moving from William Hill now as they are still dragging their feet about the refund.

So where do I go, where do the people advise from this thread? I have account with Betfred & Laddies, so no need to sign up there. So which ones are best, and maybe some sign up offers around?

Firstly, and most importantly, get yourself a Betfair and/or Betdaq account.

surely if he likes football betting, a Pinnacle account would be better - they are quite often a better price when 5% commission deducted.  I think BF are now only worthwhile for football if you are fairly certain the price will move and allow you to green up.

Example
True odds 60% 1.67
Offered odds
2 on BF
1.975 on pinnacle
If we let the bet run we get 6 wins from 10
For a profit after commission
1.7 on BF
1.85 in pinnacle

However if the BF price moves to 1.67 we can lay 1.2 at 1.67 for a profit before commission of .2 which is .19 after commission x 10 goes = total profit of 1.9

Thank you for reply.

I am not 100% on on how to use BF and betdaq really. So I think for me to get value out of either, then I probably need to read up on it here? I am guessing this is all about backing elsewhere and laying on BF for a decreased price?

[doubleup]

Backing elsewhere and laying on Betfair is known as "arbing".  What I was referring to was I suppose "scalping" where you make money from price movements in Betfair alone.

However I would think you just want the best price for a football bet and imo Pinnacle have the best price more often than anywhere else and are often better than Betfair if commission is being accounted for.

[Bertpup]

After looking at US presidential betting I stumbled across this market

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/julian-assange/how-will-he-leave-the-ecuadorian-embassy

It could be locking up money for a long time but surely max bet on UK Police car at 11/8.

 He has given a two finger salute to the British judicial system and wasted a load of taxpayers money on it. I can't imagine for one second that the British Govt are going to let the political superpower of Ecuador embarrass us on a global scale. The second he steps out he is straight into Police custody.

[redarmi]

I am moving from William Hill now as they are still dragging their feet about the refund.

So where do I go, where do the people advise from this thread? I have account with Betfred & Laddies, so no need to sign up there. So which ones are best, and maybe some sign up offers around?

Firstly, and most importantly, get yourself a Betfair and/or Betdaq account.

surely if he likes football betting, a Pinnacle account would be better - they are quite often a better price when 5% commission deducted.  I think BF are now only worthwhile for football if you are fairly certain the price will move and allow you to green up.

Example
True odds 60% 1.67
Offered odds
2 on BF
1.975 on pinnacle
If we let the bet run we get 6 wins from 10
For a profit after commission
1.7 on BF
1.85 in pinnacle

However if the BF price moves to 1.67 we can lay 1.2 at 1.67 for a profit before commission of .2 which is .19 after commission x 10 goes = total profit of 1.9


Also the above effect has some relevance to the Freds ongoing greening up arguement

I thought about mentioning pinnacle and sbo but I get the sense aaron might like the full service of first goalscorers, correct scores etc etc that Pinny don't have.  They are an absolute must though for any serious punter.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0725, Thursday October 4th

LOSS on Month = £93.00

Unsettled Bets  - £432.70



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=13

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0800, Thursday October 4th

We made a loss of £25 yesterday.

3 new bets placed, two of which completed, one winner, one loser.

I rather got it round my neck yesterday.

£50 wagered on Man City was shown to be a complete misread – City were battered by Borussia, & the “good thing” was not at all what it seemed. We just got it wrong, simple as that.

I compounded this by mostly bottling this recommend from redarmi…..

".....I, and I think the market, assumed Real may rest some players tonight ahead of El Classico but they haven't.  Think both the 4/7 and -1 1.90 represent value along with Ronaldo @5/6 to score anytime......"

I wimpily risked £30 @ 5/6 for Ronaldo to score, which he did – three times - & I blanked the outright. Real Madrid coasted to a 4-1 victory.

Nothing conspires to make fools of us like gambling.

Now, some photos. You'll have to excuse my increasing fondness for photos, but they tell the story better than I ever could. If I stare at a photo long enough, I can feel the story.

The Man City game was memorable not only for the Borussia battering, but for Hart reigning supreme whilst the shots rained down on him.  



  

Click to see full-size image.

At the other end, meanwhile, the Borusssia keeper unwisely decided to give Balotelli the verbals, Mario pointedly refuses to make eye-contact & stares into space, sullenly, cue a Mario comedy penalty, where he trots up, stops, feints, then trickles the ball inside the post at 1mph whilst the hapless keeper has been sent the wrong way, cue Mario’s verbal riposte.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Footnote - the stats never lie. Usually never, that is.


  

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

I did the work. I wondered what the right spread was before I got onto Oddschecker

In Six Super-Eight matches at the Premadasa in Colombo in the T20WC, the boundaries totals per match were as follows

31

36

34

28

26

32

Mean a touch over 31 boundaries, including big hitters Australia in those games


The weather there is a bit mixed, the pitch is slow, the pitch goes low and dead.


The semi-final between Sri-Lanka and Pakistan could be low scoring

Both teams have quality spin options, both lack a bit of batting depth


So if we could go Under 34-35 boundaries, I think we'd be onto a good thing


I open oddschecker


Bugger, its priced correctly

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/sri-lanka-v-pakistan/total-boundaries

31.5 the over/under


Please don't be tempted to go on the overs. I think this could be a cagey one

posting now as I am travelling tomorrow when the game and conversation thereof will be germane.



There is though I think an advantage to the team batting first. Two even sides with similar strengths and it is difficult to chase here with pace off the ball

For those wanting a punt, back the side batting first after the toss.

Reminder, for those who missed it.

The game starts at 2.30pm, so presumably the toss will be around 30 minutes prior.