Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

We are in a hole. How about a Lucky15 ? Remember the darts coup on the draws. I will be backing his 2 main selections anyway.

[tikay]

Henlow Derby Final tonight, thoughts below:

7:40 - Like the look of T1 Severn Bolt in this one, currently available at 4/1. Races at Romford and is quite hit and miss at the traps but hits it more often than doesn't and is worth the gamble at the prices. Better sectionals than the other Romford dogs in the race (2 and 5). T5 had a nice trial, better than the selection but it was a first look for both. T4 is the favourite and don't like it, 5 should lead it and there is even the chance it turns slightly right out the boxes and hinders both.

8:00 - The second televised race is over the new Henlow distance of 428m and the selection is T2 River Dubh at a current 9/2. Trap 6 holds the track record, set last week, which was a length faster than T2's best time but think the race set-up will see T2 get that length and more free at the start. Should lead on the inner and 6 won't have an easy time getting past the 5 early.

8:15 - Going to try T5 Mayor Mac in this tough race as think it is best priced dog, available at 11/2. Has a good mix of speed and stamina (has Crayford 540s on record) and if it gets a run to the first could prove a strong runner. Negative is that this is its first look whilst most of the others have been around.

8:35 - Taking a chance on T4 Tolerton Dasher in this sprint and a nice 7/1. It's the only Henlow dog in the race and can be very quick away, hoping it gets round in front. Lil Risky in one is the fave but can be easily opposed at 13/8 IMO.

8:50 - I backed T6 Yeatsie Boy on Thursday when it was uncharacteristically slow away but willing to give it another shot tonight. Usually pings and the dog inside hasn't been trapping. The 27:43 it ran on the 27th of September would hose this race and if it gets clear it can repeat that run. T2 might be the danger if it clears the one on the run up. Will take the 3/1 on offer on T6.

9:10 - Going to throw a few pence at T6 Millwards Alpha in this one at a big 16/1. Has ok sectionals and times around Hove's 515m and whilst this is a different race I think it's the value play, especially if it can lead 5 who scored well around here recently.

9:25 - T1 is the jolly of the night at 8/11 but I am opposing with another big priced one in T6 Fivestar Bessy at 14/1. Marathons aren't my favourite races to decipher and Bessy hasn't been this far and kind of basing this selection on some runs over 575m at Romford which is obviously flawed. Could lead.

9:45 - The final and you get to see one of the early Derby favourites in action in the shape of Farloe Warhawk. Nice race and you can make arguments for most. Haven't really decided on a selection in this one and could be dependent on how the earlier part of the night has went. At the moment I think I'm leaning towards another big priced one in T6 at 16/1 but still studying.

If pushed for a NAP and NB, would likely go with T2 in the 8:00 and T4 in the 8:35 respectively.

Interested to hear other opinions too.

We are on Tolerton already, and we now have £10 on River Dubh in the 8pm race.

That'll do for starters, maybe we'll have a few others if either of those obliges.

£10, River Dubh, @ 9/2, BetFred, 8pm, Henlow.

ON


428mtrs (Or) 428 Mtrs (Or)
Outright Betting
 River Dubh 9/2 
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 55.00

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 55.00

[Tal]

We are in a hole. How about a Lucky15 ? Remember the darts coup on the draws. I will be backing his 2 main selections anyway.

Multiples?!

Such decadence

[tikay]

We are in a hole. How about a Lucky15 ? Remember the darts coup on the draws. I will be backing his 2 main selections anyway.

Multiples?!

Such decadence

That Hector is such a degen.

[Tal]

We are in a hole. How about a Lucky15 ? Remember the darts coup on the draws. I will be backing his 2 main selections anyway.

Multiples?!

Such decadence

That Hector is such a degen.

I bet even his cakes are tiered

[AceHighSuited]

Lucky 15 on the dogs isn't a bad shout.  I quite like trying to find a dog at bigger than 4's and do them in e/w multiples.  Its something that has seen me make smallish profits consistently, if there isn't a better price than 4/1 then normally happy to sack price if there is something I can make a compelling case.  

Another multiple that might be worth taking on is in the darts, every match ended 2 - 1 last night.  I'd be looking at going 2 - 1 on the outsiders for an interest little Banzai but can provide a great sweat over the evening.

Webster, lloyd, Baxter, Osborne all to win 2 - 1 returns +950 for a £1 lucky 15.  There are worse bets. 

[Karabiner]

We are in a hole. How about a Lucky15 ? Remember the darts coup on the draws. I will be backing his 2 main selections anyway.

Multiples?!

Such decadence

That Hector is such a degen.

I bet even his cakes are tiered

 

[AceHighSuited]

This is obviously far too late, but of interest. 

I have noticed in a number of races featuring godolphin horses of late that the money comes for a favoured one and the outsider of the 2 seems to always get there late on.   There is a race at Wolves starting just now, I wonder what will happen.  As there has been money for the favourite. 

[kukushkin88]

This is obviously far too late, but of interest. 

I have noticed in a number of races featuring godolphin horses of late that the money comes for a favoured one and the outsider of the 2 seems to always get there late on.   There is a race at Wolves starting just now, I wonder what will happen.  As there has been money for the favourite. 

What´s the theory? I don´t understand what you are suggesting?

[AceHighSuited]

This is obviously far too late, but of interest. 

I have noticed in a number of races featuring godolphin horses of late that the money comes for a favoured one and the outsider of the 2 seems to always get there late on.   There is a race at Wolves starting just now, I wonder what will happen.  As there has been money for the favourite. 

What´s the theory? I don´t understand what you are suggesting?

I haven't given it a great deal of thought tbh with you, but over the years it has always seemed to me that Godolphin horses that drift seem to do rather poorly.  This last year though more so than any other I have noticed on a number of occasions that the drifter runs better than the money horse. 

Sample size is obviously tiny.  Probably nothing to it, but just something I felt there might be a few comments on.

As operations go, I would have thought Godolphin less likely than others to try and nick a few quid off the books. 

[aaron1867]

This is obviously far too late, but of interest. 

I have noticed in a number of races featuring godolphin horses of late that the money comes for a favoured one and the outsider of the 2 seems to always get there late on.   There is a race at Wolves starting just now, I wonder what will happen.  As there has been money for the favourite. 

What´s the theory? I don´t understand what you are suggesting?

I'm not sure he knows what he is suggesting himself

You mean this race...

Best Odds Guaranteed       Congratulations, you have received a Best Odds Guaranteed bonus of £93.18 on the bet below.
09 Oct 12 / 19:07   Single   1       7:30 W'Hampton  –  Win    Daaree @ 11/8 GP (Price taken @ 10/11)   Won   £200.00   £475.00    O/3363054/0000303/F

[millidonk]

Scotty, I read somewhere once about punting outside lane dogs in an RFO after it has been pouring down. Some guy claimed he made a pretty penny doing this season after season. Was probably for a specific course but i can't remember, did a quick google but can't find anything. You ever heard of this/any of the elders have a clue what I am on about?

[horseplayer]

This is obviously far too late, but of interest. 

I have noticed in a number of races featuring godolphin horses of late that the money comes for a favoured one and the outsider of the 2 seems to always get there late on.   There is a race at Wolves starting just now, I wonder what will happen.  As there has been money for the favourite. 

What´s the theory? I don´t understand what you are suggesting?

I haven't given it a great deal of thought tbh with you, but over the years it has always seemed to me that Godolphin horses that drift seem to do rather poorly.  This last year though more so than any other I have noticed on a number of occasions that the drifter runs better than the money horse. 

Sample size is obviously tiny.  Probably nothing to it, but just something I felt there might be a few comments on.

As operations go, I would have thought Godolphin less likely than others to try and nick a few quid off the books. 

nothing really in this

there 3rd strings have a very good record in races last few years mainly because they have a lot of similar horses that all have ability.

I really wouldn't use godolphin as an example of horses that drift and lose tbh

[scotty2hatty]

Anyone have a link to Sky dogs? Don't imagine one will be available but ask in hope.

[scotty2hatty]

Boher Chieftan too good.