Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

sammy lee at 33/1 with stan james to be next bolton manager, currently will be the caretaker and Bolton have said effectively he stays on with a good start. Everywhere else is closer to 5/1.

the price is a mythical much like with ogs stan are leaving the price up but not laying a bean to anybody

if you could get on its worth a poke, winnable game this saturday but following trips to wolves and boro arent easy at all and i fancy he needs at least 7 points from these 3 games to have a sniff.

[Dubai]

On the Ronaldo bet, theres no real market on bf, but id suggest worst case u lose 2% on the win bet and probably gain 9% on the each way part. So looks a decent bet for sure

[Doobs]

maxed at 90 cent but good shout!

Now .  Skybet will lay you £15 at 16/1.  

[The Camel]

I assume newcastles price this weekend will be wrong, let me tell ou why.

The bookies will overprice Sunderland because they havnt lost often this season and underprice Newcastle because of a slowish start.

Our whole core f our team comes from Krul/colocini, both are back fit.

The main thing is that Sunderland baby lost much but they've been fixkong awful long forward. As its a derby there fans will push for them to attack, they won't be comfortable and if we can hold them out Ben arfa and ba can really punish them on the break.

Im pretty sure this is one of the little things that bookmakers won't take into account but last year we murdered west brom in very similar circumstances all of our goals coming from against the run of play.

Newcastle just above 2/1 on Betfair, which suggests they have them close to even in ability.   Bookies adjust to current form slowly, so they aren't assuming Sunderland are the better team yet.

Quite an interesting game this, I think, & current form often goes out of the window in this one.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-newcastle/winner

As the nipper is kipping, I have run some stats on the tikay hypothesis.

Since the advent of 3 points for a win, the two teams have met 22 times in the league.

There have been 6 home wins, 9 draws and 7 away wins.  This suggests that draws and away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland have only won 3 of those encounters.

When I took it back to the first world war, I got 84 results.  There were 36 home wins, 28 draws and 20 aways. Looking at these stats, I'd be less confident that the away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland won 22 of these games.  Pre the first world war Sunderland were the best side.

I wouldn't be rushing to back Sunderland.  I am not so confident in the away win stat. 

Draws just feel more likely in local derbies, and the teams feel closely matched right now.  The stats seem to back up my initial thoughts on local derbies, but I haven't got the time to run them all.

Anyway, Pinnacle are offering 12/5 the draw, and I am estimating the odds should be something like 2/1 or lower.

Of course these markets should be close to perfect and the big syndicates should have better models than the botched stats I have done above.  Regardless of this, I have spent some time on this, so feel the need to bet.  I have backed the draw at 2.4 on betfair as I am a creature of habit and can't be bothered opening a pinnacle account.  23/10 is available in a few spots for those that haven't got pinnacle or get stung for 5%/premium charge on betfair.

I have assumed that there is no real difference between Sunderland playing at Roker Park or the Stadium of Light and no difference between Newcastle playing at St James' Park and the Sports Direct Arena. 
 
FWIW If I run beyond the first world war, the stats aren't so compelling, but I just imagine the games were more one sided back then, maybe tikay can provide some reminiscences about this period to help us out?

Read an interesting stat the other day.

Sunderland have less shots on goal than any team in Europe's top 5 leagues. By far! They have had only 27, Sina are next lowest with 45.

If our theory about shots on goal being a major factor in what the major syndicates bet on, maybe they will be looking to get with the Toon here.

[Snowball]

I've been hearing Norwich and Swansea have contacted Owen Coyle and have told him they may be interested in talking to him over the next month or so.

[horseplayer]

I've been hearing Norwich and Swansea have contacted Owen Coyle and have told him they may be interested in talking to him over the next month or so.

are they mad?

[DungBeetle]

Who would be interested in Coyle?  Took a midtable premier league team to the lower reaches of the Championship before finally getting the boot.  He got Burnley up once.  But then Aidy Boothroyd did that at Watford.

[tikay]

£50ew Ronaldo first goalscorer 9-5 Ppower

Gotcha.

£50 EW @ 9/5, Ronaldo FGS, Paddy Power.

ON

World Cup Qualifiers Portugal v Northern Ireland
16-10-2012 20:45
First Goalscorer
Each Way Odds: 1/3 places 1,2,3,4,5
C Ronaldo @ 9/5
 
Your Bets When placing an E/W bet, your total stake will be double the amount you enter in the stake box.
Single: C Ronaldo @ 9/5
2 lines at £50.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £100.00
Potential returns: £220.00
No: O/23146337/0000166

 

[TightEnd]

Ukraine v Montenegro

Would cup qualifying, England's group

These are two teams where the form lines suggest a tight game

Ukraine has drawn both of its qualifiers so far, at Wembley (reasonably comfortably) and in Moldova (0-0 on Saturday, surprisingly)

Montenegro played Poland and drew in September having led 2-1

http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/13953/8060758/Montenegro-hold-Poland


I watched a fair amount of Montenegro in the last Euro qualifying. They were in England's group

Their results were interesting, and proved they are a very difficult side to beat

They have established Serie A players in Vucinic and Jovetic and extremely well organised at the back

They beat Wales, Bulgaria and Switzerland

then recorded a 0–0 draw away against England, drew away in Bulgaria.

Drew against England again, 2-2 at home having been 2-0 down (at which point Rooney was sent off)

Montenegro made the play offs and lost the Czechs

In friendlies in May 2012 onwards they drew against a full strength Belgian team (2-2, Mirallas and Hazard scored for Belgium) and beat Latvia and Iceland


The Ukrainians lost 2 of 3 group games in the Euros and before the England game at Wembley had one friendly, a 0-0 draw agains tthe Czechs. The have not won an international now for five games



You can get 14/5 the draw tonight Bet Victor.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/ukraine-v-montenegro/winner

Just cannot see the Ukrainians being 4/6 shots against an up and coming team like this

It's a tight group and I think nearly 3-1 the draw is really good value.


Alternative would be to lay Ukraine at 1.75

[tikay]

Thanks Rich.

I need to go offline for a few hours, something unexpected has cropped up, but I'd like to get involved in that bet later today.

But........ do we go the draw route, or lay Ukraine?

I'd hate to back the draw only to find that Montewhatsit went & won the bloody thing.

[TightEnd]

Thanks Rich.

I need to go offline for a few hours, something unexpected has cropped up, but I'd like to get involved in that bet later today.

But........ do we go the draw route, or lay Ukraine?

I'd hate to back the draw only to find that Montewhatsit went & won the bloody thing.

Quite. Laying Ukraine (something like £60 with a liability of £45) covers the "they might win it" scenario, though that was an afterthought on my behalf. I just notice how often they draw, quite often when not expected to

[RickBFA]

Tikay,

Perhaps you would get views on Leeds at Sheffield Wednesday on friday night.

They are 11/5 to win or 5/4 DNB.

Warnock will have Leeds up for this game and have 6,000 Leeds fans at the game.

I watch Wednesday and the team is desperately short of confidence.

Dave Jones has tried to tighten up a shocking defence by playing 4-5-1 in the last home game against Hull. It was awful to watch and they were clueless when they got over the half way line, with the centre forward totally isolated. Jones seemed keen to defend the tactic after the game. If they play with this formation on Friday I would expect Leeds to be comfortable winners.

Hull were an injury hit average team, Leeds are significantly better.

I think they are overpriced at the figures above.

Do others have a view?

[tikay]

I'm advised by a Freddie that William Hill have a "Limited" Priority Offer (£10 Max) on tonight's England Game - Rooney to score anytime, & England to win, 5/1, so we are on.

£10 @ 5/1, as above, William Hill.

ON

16 Oct 2012 - Rooney Wincast Priority Price 16/10/12 (vs Poland) - Limited Availability

Rooney to score and England to win (Void if Rooney doesn't start) @ 5/1

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £60.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000120/F

[tikay]

Tikay,

Perhaps you would get views on Leeds at Sheffield Wednesday on friday night.

They are 11/5 to win or 5/4 DNB.

Warnock will have Leeds up for this game and have 6,000 Leeds fans at the game.

I watch Wednesday and the team is desperately short of confidence.

Dave Jones has tried to tighten up a shocking defence by playing 4-5-1 in the last home game against Hull. It was awful to watch and they were clueless when they got over the half way line, with the centre forward totally isolated. Jones seemed keen to defend the tactic after the game. If they play with this formation on Friday I would expect Leeds to be comfortable winners.

Hull were an injury hit average team, Leeds are significantly better.

I think they are overpriced at the figures above.

Do others have a view?

Thanks Rick - yes, let's see if we can get some views on this. Might get the weekend off to a decent start.

[tikay]

Thanks Rich.

I need to go offline for a few hours, something unexpected has cropped up, but I'd like to get involved in that bet later today.

But........ do we go the draw route, or lay Ukraine?

I'd hate to back the draw only to find that Montewhatsit went & won the bloody thing.

Quite. Laying Ukraine (something like £60 with a liability of £45) covers the "they might win it" scenario, though that was an afterthought on my behalf. I just notice how often they draw, quite often when not expected to

I was dithering on this, hoping someone would solve the Draw or Win connundrum, but I'm out of time, so we have had a small interest in the Draw, as I missed a bit of price.

£25 @ 13/5 with Blue Square, Ukraine v Montewhatsit to be a draw.

ON

 Draw @ 13/5 
Market
 Win/Draw/Win
 
Event
 World Cup European Qualifiers
Ukraine v Montenegro
2012-10-16 19:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £25.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £25.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-10-16 18:10:06
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000108