Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

last 5 games in a row have been broken. what a match

Unlucky fella, but I think it was a great bet, & we had a real bit of fun for £20.

Next time, eh?

[youthnkzR]

last 5 games in a row have been broken. what a match

Unlucky fella, but I think it was a great bet, & we had a real bit of fun for £20.

Next time, eh?

fantastic match to watch, next time indeed!

[tikay]

Weekend football, further thoughts

Liverpool have drifted slightly all week, and can now be laid at 1.39 (1.33 when posted on Monday). I think it is felt that Liverpool might finally by on the turn by those who have done well out of opposing them for 18 months though as I wrote I was tempted to lay

Chelsea are 2.9 at Spurs (Spurs 2.7, draw 3.5) In their last 20 London Derbies at home Spurs have won 13 and drew 7. Lost None. Want to oppose Chelsea, with the recdonkfish likely to be supporting them


In the Championship the last three rounds of matches, 36 games have produced on 7 home wins and 19 away wins

In form sides Cardiff W 5 of 6, Wolves W 5 of 6, Leicester W 6 of 7, Palace W 6 D 1 of 7

Cardiff are 2-1 away at Forest and look a standout compared to Wolves at Hudd and Leicester at Birmingham

Palace are 6-5 at home to Millwall in the Saturday lunchtime game. Not entirely clear to me why they are not odds on


Lower Leagues

Crawley are 13-10 against a Hartlepool side who have 1 in 12 this season, and that 1 is 1 of 6 at home

Sheff U, unbeaten all season 2-1 at Preston

Tranmere 2-1 at Bournemouth and have been under-repped all season in markets. Bournemouth have Eddie Howe back


Gillingham v Burton over 2.5 goals. Gillingham are top and have scored 2 goals a game on average this season. Amongst Burton's results are 3-2,3-3,5-1 and 4-3



That's the fruits of two hours research, and for further discussion by you lot

Thanks Tighty. We have done the Gills - Burton one first, as that looks the best of the lot. More to follow.

£55 @ 8/11 with Blue Square, Gillingham v Burton, OVER 2.5 goals.

ON


Over 2.5 goals @ 8/11 
Market
 Total Goals Over/Under
 
Event
 English League 2
Gillingham v Burton Albion
2012-10-20 15:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £55.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £55.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-10-20 12:45:59
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000113
 

[tikay]

Recommends from yesterday.

If anyone has any views, speak up now please, as I'm going to work through them & get a few of them on.

India to beat England 4-1 in the Test Series.

Cardinals in the NFL. Think we will wait a little longer on that, the line remains at 6.5. Still looks a bet, especially if the line hits 7.

Spurs to beat Chelsea.

Cardiff @ 2/1 v Forest

Palace @ 6/5.

Crawley @ 13/10.

Sheff Utd @ 2/1.

Tranmere @ 2/1.

Burton - Gillingham GOALS.

Sunderland - Newcastle DRAW.

Exeter @ 5/2 in Rugby Union.

Opposing Frankel with Cirrus, with EW as the bait.

Saracens to draw @ Half-time.


Amongst those there seems to be a good deal of value. We might just spread our dough around those.

The suggestion was to LAY Chelsea at 2.9, not for Spurs to win. No feedback though, and I am more agnostic on it than some of the other suggestions

India was 4-0, but the price has gone from 20-1 to 16-1

You also forget the Liverpool LAY, but again, no feedback on that for a while


p.s I am up to page 56 on the thread back-searching for the tikay quotes saying we go for value and analysis not tips from mates

xx

The market moved because of Bale. Also, I clean forgot it was an early KO, as I was watching the Girlie Tennis.

Given the Bale news, I think the LAY at 2.52 is still value.

We have laid Chelsea, £25 @ 2.52 (Liability £40), with Betfair.

ON.

Cannot C & P Betslip, as had to use the ippy, for some reason Betty does not function well on IE on my Lappie.

[tikay]

Lol, must work on my timing.

Within a minute of laying Chelsea, they go a goal up.

Everything going to plan on our recovery weekend.


Worry not.

 

[tikay]

I assume newcastles price this weekend will be wrong, let me tell ou why.

The bookies will overprice Sunderland because they havnt lost often this season and underprice Newcastle because of a slowish start.

Our whole core f our team comes from Krul/colocini, both are back fit.

The main thing is that Sunderland baby lost much but they've been fixkong awful long forward. As its a derby there fans will push for them to attack, they won't be comfortable and if we can hold them out Ben arfa and ba can really punish them on the break.

Im pretty sure this is one of the little things that bookmakers won't take into account but last year we murdered west brom in very similar circumstances all of our goals coming from against the run of play.

Newcastle just above 2/1 on Betfair, which suggests they have them close to even in ability.   Bookies adjust to current form slowly, so they aren't assuming Sunderland are the better team yet.

Quite an interesting game this, I think, & current form often goes out of the window in this one.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-newcastle/winner

As the nipper is kipping, I have run some stats on the tikay hypothesis.

Since the advent of 3 points for a win, the two teams have met 22 times in the league.

There have been 6 home wins, 9 draws and 7 away wins.  This suggests that draws and away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland have only won 3 of those encounters.

When I took it back to the first world war, I got 84 results.  There were 36 home wins, 28 draws and 20 aways. Looking at these stats, I'd be less confident that the away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland won 22 of these games.  Pre the first world war Sunderland were the best side.

I wouldn't be rushing to back Sunderland.  I am not so confident in the away win stat. 

Draws just feel more likely in local derbies, and the teams feel closely matched right now.  The stats seem to back up my initial thoughts on local derbies, but I haven't got the time to run them all.

Anyway, Pinnacle are offering 12/5 the draw, and I am estimating the odds should be something like 2/1 or lower.

Of course these markets should be close to perfect and the big syndicates should have better models than the botched stats I have done above.  Regardless of this, I have spent some time on this, so feel the need to bet.  I have backed the draw at 2.4 on betfair as I am a creature of habit and can't be bothered opening a pinnacle account.  23/10 is available in a few spots for those that haven't got pinnacle or get stung for 5%/premium charge on betfair.

I have assumed that there is no real difference between Sunderland playing at Roker Park or the Stadium of Light and no difference between Newcastle playing at St James' Park and the Sports Direct Arena. 
 
FWIW If I run beyond the first world war, the stats aren't so compelling, but I just imagine the games were more one sided back then, maybe tikay can provide some reminiscences about this period to help us out?

Thanks Doobsy. Hard to resist when your research goes back to World War 1.

Exactly mirroring your logic, £40 @ 23/10 with Boyles, Newcastle - v Sunderland to DRAW

ON

Bet ref: 44/43 Draw @ 23/10
Sunderland v Newcastle
Match Betting
Total stake £20.00
Estimated return £66.00

[tikay]

Weekend football, further thoughts

Liverpool have drifted slightly all week, and can now be laid at 1.39 (1.33 when posted on Monday). I think it is felt that Liverpool might finally by on the turn by those who have done well out of opposing them for 18 months though as I wrote I was tempted to lay

Chelsea are 2.9 at Spurs (Spurs 2.7, draw 3.5) In their last 20 London Derbies at home Spurs have won 13 and drew 7. Lost None. Want to oppose Chelsea, with the recdonkfish likely to be supporting them


In the Championship the last three rounds of matches, 36 games have produced on 7 home wins and 19 away wins

In form sides Cardiff W 5 of 6, Wolves W 5 of 6, Leicester W 6 of 7, Palace W 6 D 1 of 7

Cardiff are 2-1 away at Forest and look a standout compared to Wolves at Hudd and Leicester at Birmingham

Palace are 6-5 at home to Millwall in the Saturday lunchtime game. Not entirely clear to me why they are not odds on


Lower Leagues

Crawley are 13-10 against a Hartlepool side who have 1 in 12 this season, and that 1 is 1 of 6 at home

Sheff U, unbeaten all season 2-1 at Preston

Tranmere 2-1 at Bournemouth and have been under-repped all season in markets. Bournemouth have Eddie Howe back


Gillingham v Burton over 2.5 goals. Gillingham are top and have scored 2 goals a game on average this season. Amongst Burton's results are 3-2,3-3,5-1 and 4-3



That's the fruits of two hours research, and for further discussion by you lot

These games are starting too soon for me, I should have got to work earlier.

Palace Millwall has already started, & 6/5 has become 11/10, but still worth a bet I think.

£50 @ 11/10, Palace, Paddy Power.

ON

Betting In Running Crystal Palace v Millwall
20-10-2012 13:00
Win-Draw-Win
Crystal Palace @ 11/10
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Crystal Palace @ 11/10
1 line at £50.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
Potential returns: £105.00
No: O/23146337/0000171

 

[tikay]

Good afternoon Tikay,

A few selections from me from the Scottish football.   As you may recall in the last round of domestic games I advised laying Rangers @ 1/5 and backing Morton @ 11/4.

Today I am once again keen on being with Morton, they are definitely the form team and from what I hear they are now at full strength, having been without a number of key players on there recent run.  They are 3/1 away to another in-form team Dunfermline.  I think 3/1 is too big, I would have had them as 15/8 shots max.   They can actually be backed at 4.4 on betty, this is a massive price.

I also like both teams to score in the St Mirren v Celtic game.  Its priced up at 1.97 on betty, now I think too much has been made of the recent record.  St Mirren are 0 - 6 against Celtic.  But this is an improving St Mirren team.  They have had their best scoring start o an SPL season this year, also they are up against a Celtic team with 5 changes and Celtic's record going into European games has been a little patch in recent years. 

There is another bet I like the look of in the 3pm kick off's but I want to find something out first. 

I would have £40 on Morton and £60 on BTTS.

Thanks Ace.

We don't seem to be doing too well at present, but we'll plug away. (Celtic currently 4-0 up).

Morton are now BP 7/2, so we have £20 @ 7/2 with Corals.

ON


SingleID:O/1597594/0000002Morton 7/2Dunfermline v Morton - 20/10/2012Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£90.00

[horseplayer]

2-0 to the eagles tho tikay

[tikay]

You had been there talking as had Chomoy and I ignored you and asked him for his opinion.

 Meanwhile I have been doing some stuff on the two rugby union games (Exeter and Saracens). I would not put myself up as any kind of rugby expert but I can see that the points in Clermont/Exeter are 40.5 with B365 and in Saracens/Racing Metro they are 36.5.

 I also have a window and I can see it rarely seems to be not raining these days.

 Ladbrokes are Saracens -7 and Hills and some others -9. Half-time draw is 12/1 in both games. No try scorer in Exeter is 20/1 and it's 16/1 at the Saracens game.

 I have bet on some of those things.

I think the thread should bet H-T draw at 12/1 in the Saracens game with Bluesq, maybe £15 at 12/1.

Does anyone have a view on which bets were best (Hills just went from -9 to -7 Sarries although I stopped betting 90 minutes ago).

 

OK Neil, we will.

£15 @ 12/1, Blue Square, draw at half-time, Saracens v Racing Metro.

ON

Draw @ 12/1 
Market
 Half-Time Result
 
Event
 Heineken Cup Matches
Saracens v Racing Metro
2012-10-20 16:40:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £15.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £15.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-10-20 13:38:28
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000114
 

[tikay]

2-0 to the eagles tho tikay

Yes!

We'll keep plugging away. Very pleased to hear that though.

[tikay]

The tide is turning - Spurs have equalised.

[TightEnd]

Mixed news

Millwall get one back from the spot, with the Palace defender sent off for handball. 2-1 at


Gallas equalises for Tottenham, who have missed Bale and Dembele terribly imo, against that excellent Chelsea midfield

[tikay]

Weekend football, further thoughts

Liverpool have drifted slightly all week, and can now be laid at 1.39 (1.33 when posted on Monday). I think it is felt that Liverpool might finally by on the turn by those who have done well out of opposing them for 18 months though as I wrote I was tempted to lay

Chelsea are 2.9 at Spurs (Spurs 2.7, draw 3.5) In their last 20 London Derbies at home Spurs have won 13 and drew 7. Lost None. Want to oppose Chelsea, with the recdonkfish likely to be supporting them


In the Championship the last three rounds of matches, 36 games have produced on 7 home wins and 19 away wins

In form sides Cardiff W 5 of 6, Wolves W 5 of 6, Leicester W 6 of 7, Palace W 6 D 1 of 7

Cardiff are 2-1 away at Forest and look a standout compared to Wolves at Hudd and Leicester at Birmingham

Palace are 6-5 at home to Millwall in the Saturday lunchtime game. Not entirely clear to me why they are not odds on


Lower Leagues

Crawley are 13-10 against a Hartlepool side who have 1 in 12 this season, and that 1 is 1 of 6 at home

Sheff U, unbeaten all season 2-1 at Preston

Tranmere 2-1 at Bournemouth and have been under-repped all season in markets. Bournemouth have Eddie Howe back


Gillingham v Burton over 2.5 goals. Gillingham are top and have scored 2 goals a game on average this season. Amongst Burton's results are 3-2,3-3,5-1 and 4-3



That's the fruits of two hours research, and for further discussion by you lot

Sheff Utd next, though we only got 7/4. Several others agreed with this.

£20 @ 7/4, Sheff Utd to beat Preston, William Hill.

ON

20 Oct 2012 - Preston v Sheff Utd - Match Betting

Tip ItSheff Utd @ 7/4

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £55.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000125/F

[tikay]

Need to go Offline for a bit, so for now, this wraps us up.

These are all from Tighty.

Cardiff to beat Forest, £40 @ 85/40, BetVictor.

Tranmere to beat Bournemouth, £40 @ 85/40, Stan James

Crawley to beat Hartlepool, £25 @ 6/5, Corals.

All done.


ON



Nott'm Forest v Cardiff City
Cardiff City
(Match Betting)
Odds:  85/40
Stake:  40.00
Possible Return:  125.00

_______


Bournemouth v Tranmere : Match Betting Tranmere 85/40
Total stake £40.00
Estimated return £125.00

Full stake £ 40.00
Full Estimated return £ 125.00


___________


SingleID:O/1597594/0000003Crawley 6/5Hartlepool v Crawley - 20/10/2012Stake £25.00
Estimated Return:£55.0Confirming BetsPlease do not click on any other link while we are confirming your bets. Please wait.

Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Return: £55.00