Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

i only watched for a bit last night but it looked like the flattest test pitch i have seen for a long time?

[Snowball]

Is their not a bit of Rain forecast for every Day plus just ovwr 80 overs today and that was without any Rain.Also seems that they won't play much Cricket after 5pm and with no spin I think 80 is the max they will play each Day.
I do agree the SA price looks too big.

[TightEnd]

Weather is dry hot and fine

Pitch is flat

In days 4 and 5 the hot weather can lead the pitch to worsen, but SA have no spin for that (which is I think why SA are priced as they are)

So make 500 and trust Steyn and co against the Australian top six

that's the nub

[TightEnd]

i only watched for a bit last night but it looked like the flattest test pitch i have seen for a long time?

fairly typical for Brisbane

Since the pitches were relaid in the early 2000s the old trend for them to have some moisture early doors has gone and they've been flat ever since

Of course Aus with Warne and McGrath were still able to force six victories in a row subsequently


As I say, I am backing the SA attack against Cowan. Quiney and the others

[TightEnd]

Is their not a bit of Rain forecast for every Day plus just ovwr 80 overs today and that was without any Rain.Also seems that they won't play much Cricket after 5pm and with no spin I think 80 is the max they will play each Day.
I do agree the SA price looks too big.

Haven't seen any rain about, but of course any interruptions make a draw more likely in time lost but possibly freshen up the pitch if they aren't too long

Cricket betting, you look up at the sky and down at the pitch. Something will get you!

[horseplayer]

looking at that line up if there is any value it would be in backing s africa now and then possibly reviewing the position when/if aus hit 50-3

[TightEnd]

looking at that line up if there is any value it would be in backing s africa now and then possibly reviewing the position when/if aus hit 50-3

Yes, that's a line to take on Betfair.

Long SA to greeeeennnn, non camel stylee

[tikay]

Last night the exciting test series between Australia and South Africa started in Brisbane

My strong fancy pre-series was for S Africa, but was hesitant to put up a bet before the toss of the first game as to win the toss first and bat at Brisbane is crucial

It's a hard, flat pitch, a batting paradise for a few days in any match

South Africa won the toss and batted

I made it to the lunch break, and fell asleep

Amla, thread's friend, and Kallis batted for most of the day and they finished 255-2

Plan will be to bat all day today, get 550 and bat once in the match


After play Duminy, the 7 bat and spinner, ruptured his achilles tendon playing touch rugby, so that has to be taken into account


So....

the interesting thing about the Australian team is Watson is injured

in the top 3 therefore we have Ed Cowan, average under 30 in 7 tests. Below top class, attritional bat. We also have Rob Quiney making his debut with a career average under 40 in under 50 first class games. He's a one day banger, not really a test number 3 as far as I can tell from limited views

We have Ponting at 37, not quite the player he was, particularly early in an innings

and we have Warner, Clarke and M Hussey...all better than good, and genuine test class/better

but if you put this top six of

Cowan
Warner
Quiney
Ponting
Clarke
Hussey

against

Steyn
Morkel
Philander
Kallis
Kleinveldt

and ask whether South Africa can take 20 wickets in 3 days to win it, without a spin option, and 500 on the board I think the answer is probably more likely yes than no because without Watson this top six is supsect in places

Of course South Africa might not make 500 (Australia have  anew ball first thing), but I think its more likely they do than don't. Even if they don't it increases the chances of a result..so you have a two way opportunity....


All summer we went through calculations on the thread with respect to SA games like this, Amla batted all summer and on each occasion SA came through, took the wickets and won and the England top six is better than the Australian top six

To my mind, the S Africans are odds on to win this match

The market has the draw odds on.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/australia-v-south-africa/australia-v-south-africa-tests/australia-v-south-africa-%5B1st-test%5D/winner

I disagree strongly

I recommend £40 S Africa to win at 7/4



(7 of the last 9 Tests at Brisbane have seen positive results

6 of those 9 won by the team batting first, 3 by an innings

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/australia-v-new-zealand-2011/engine/records/team/match_results.html?class=1;id=209;type=ground)

 


 

Ooh, we love these.

Just returned from my constitutional, was worried that Dubai had seen the bet & mopped up all the 7/4, but we are safely on.

Excellent this, we get a few days sweat for our money, too, & we may even do some green things.

Thanks Lyons Man.

We have £40 @ 7/4 with Ladbrokes, South Africa to beat Australia, First Test.

I must seek out that India - England recommend, too, & I may find a little time this weekend, in between my aerial gallavanting.


ON

Selection7/4 - South Africa

EventAustralia v South Africa 255/2 Bet In Play - Live

MarketMatch betting
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - South Africa
1 line at £40.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £40.00
Potential Return: £110.00
Time: 09/11/12 17:28
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000174

[tikay]

Yep 3 set points and he blew it. I feel violated, and not in a nice way.

Give more blood.

[hector62]

I would but I have to wait 3 months. Someone else have a go.

[tikay]

Any views on Ospreys v Gloucester tonight, Gents?


http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/club-rugby/lv-cup/ospreys-v-gloucester/winner


http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/club-rugby/lv-cup/ospreys-v-gloucester/total-points

[hector62]

None at all. It could be the U 21's playing for both sides so can't base any decision on recent results. It will be whoever can be bothered the most.

[tikay]

None at all. It could be the U 21's playing for both sides so can't base any decision on recent results. It will be whoever can be bothered the most.

Ahh. Is it not an important game then? I asumed it was, as Sky Sports are covering it.

OK, will watch M'Boro v Sheff Weds instead. Over 2.5 goals I suspect, but it seems to be in the price.

[pokerfan]

None at all. It could be the U 21's playing for both sides so can't base any decision on recent results. It will be whoever can be bothered the most.

Ahh. Is it not an impoetant game then? I asumed it was, as Sky Sports are covering it.

OK, will watch M'Boro v Sheff Weds instead. Over 2.5 goals I suspect, but it seems to be in the price.

Quite like the under, 2-0 if I had to pick a score.

[tikay]

None at all. It could be the U 21's playing for both sides so can't base any decision on recent results. It will be whoever can be bothered the most.

Ahh. Is it not an impoetant game then? I asumed it was, as Sky Sports are covering it.

OK, will watch M'Boro v Sheff Weds instead. Over 2.5 goals I suspect, but it seems to be in the price.

Quite like the under, 2-0 if I had to pick a score.

Private bet, you & me.

A shilling says it is over 2 goals.

Booked?