Tips for Tikay

[scotty2hatty]

For Charlie Adam's goal the other week, Huth delivered a free kick which I thought was odd. It was from a fair distance though. Would imagine Adam would take the set-pieces closer in.

[Doobs]

I learnt a long while ago to never oppose Irish teams playing at home and to try and find a way of getting with them. Going for Argentina with a 6 point start feels a bit like opposing them as Ireland will expect to win with a bit of comfort. Ireland had a hard game 2 weeks ago then had a week off whereas Argentina have had 2 tough weeks. I kind of feel Ireland will win by a min of 9 points.

As regards the drop goal Mr T I gave it much ponderance during my half dozing this morning. I came to the conclusion that the price at Twickers should not be more than 5/4 or 6/4 so at 9/4 it is a goer.

Suggest £20 drop goal 9/4 Ladbrokes.

How frequently is a drop goal scored in international rugby matches?

I have done some research.

England have played 10 internationals this year.  In those matches, only 2 drop goals have been scored.  None have been scored by England.

8 of those games have been tight.

9/4 is fairly inconsistent with the stats.  What do we know that the bookies don't here?

[millidonk]

Wayward out 5 runners

Oooh!

Nice bet, Dewi.

Only just realised this. 5 runners and we have 3 places. Surely?

[tikay]

Doesn't Robert Huth take free kicks too?  He did at Boro and had a pretty amazing shot if I recall correctly.

Don't know, to be frank. Also to be frank, I don't watch too much Stoke!

I went back and read reports of West Ham v Stoke, which I did watch and saw Walters score from the corner with the training ground routine, and noted Shawcross was making the near post runs from corners with Crouch and I know from Pulis interviews that he majors on free kick and corner training/goals...

which got me to thinking, when Hangeland got suspended

Ahh yes, I remember now, the Corner where Stoke used 2 Defensive Line Backers in the pocket.

I'm warming to your bet more & more now.

[tikay]

Wayward out 5 runners

Oooh!

Nice bet, Dewi.

Only just realised this. 5 runners and we have 3 places. Surely?

Correct.

The weather, or going, is both our friend (reduced field size) & our enemy (might not go on the ground).

Third would do nicely though.

[Tal]

Yes it's only good if it runs, Milli

TightEnd's cousin runs in the 3.40 at Haydock this afternoon. Any inside word on 13/2, Tighty?

[TightEnd]

Yes it's only good if it runs, Milli

TightEnd's cousin runs in the 3.40 at Haydock this afternoon. Any inside word on 13/2, Tighty?

Wide Receivers generally not good in the Mud, it slows them down

[Tal]

Yes it's only good if it runs, Milli

TightEnd's cousin runs in the 3.40 at Haydock this afternoon. Any inside word on 13/2, Tighty?

Wide Receivers generally not good in the Mud, it slows them down

Very good.

Thought you might go the other way and say the conditions make it hard for the running game.

[Chompy]

I'm not too bothered about the ground for TGB. They're going through it alright and Haddock heavy is nothing like Uttox or Towcester heavy. Let it ride.

[tikay]

Sorry, I don't want to monopolise but

Stoke v Fulham

Fulham cant defend set-plays, this was especially evident last Sunday v Sunderland post Hangeland. Not a lot of height throughout the team...

They travel to Stoke today w/out Hangeland,

Stoke and set plays. Yes.

Shawcross and Huth the centre backs in the goalscorer market

Shawcross 1 goal in 2012, v Fulham

Priced at 28/1 whereas Huth is at 20-1

Banzaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/stoke-v-fulham/first-goalscorer

£3 e/w Shawcross at 28-1 Ladbrokes

E/W pays nearly 9-1 for anytime...

£3 e/w Huth 20-1 Ladbrokes

E/W pays nearly 7-1 for anytime

Huth has scored 1 goal every 10 games for Stoke over 113 games, but none in 12 this season. Mean reversion time

Shawcross has scored 1 goal every 15 games over 155 games, but none in a year...Mean reversion time

Done.

Proper Banzai material this, but it's only £12, & should be fun.

First Goalscorer, £3 ww EACH (Ladbrokes) on Huth & Shawcross, Stoke City v Fulham.

ON


Single - Ryan Shawcross - Each Way
Each Way 1/3 1,2,3,4,5
2 lines at £3.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £6.00
Potential Return: £118.00
Time: 24/11/12 12:27
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000193

  Single - Robert Huth - Each Way
Each Way 1/3 1,2,3,4,5
2 lines at £3.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £6.00
Potential Return: £86.00
Time: 24/11/12 12:27
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000194

[kukushkin88]

I learnt a long while ago to never oppose Irish teams playing at home and to try and find a way of getting with them. Going for Argentina with a 6 point start feels a bit like opposing them as Ireland will expect to win with a bit of comfort. Ireland had a hard game 2 weeks ago then had a week off whereas Argentina have had 2 tough weeks. I kind of feel Ireland will win by a min of 9 points.

As regards the drop goal Mr T I gave it much ponderance during my half dozing this morning. I came to the conclusion that the price at Twickers should not be more than 5/4 or 6/4 so at 9/4 it is a goer.

Suggest £20 drop goal 9/4 Ladbrokes.

How frequently is a drop goal scored in international rugby matches?

I have done some research.

England have played 10 internationals this year.  In those matches, only 2 drop goals have been scored.  None have been scored by England.

8 of those games have been tight.

9/4 is fairly inconsistent with the stats.  What do we know that the bookies don't here?

I think it´s this price because there is a perception that England/SA matches have a history of lots of drop goals. There is of course one very high profile match bewteen the two that was determined by drop goals but whether they do or not overall is of course reasonably unimportant. 9/4 doesn´t represent value here, that´s along way from saying it won´t win. gl to all. fwiw I´m on SA here too and think we have a very solid bet.

[redarmi]

Did we do anything on Monda's suggestion to oppose Newcastle?  Think Southampton @ 7/5 are a decent bet.

[tikay]

Did we do anything on Monda's suggestion to oppose Newcastle?  Think Southampton @ 7/5 are a decent bet.

No, I forgot about it.

Guess I'd best go take a look.

The match is tomorrow, I believe, but thanks for the nudge, I'd clean forgotten.



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-newcastle/winner

[kukushkin88]

I´d be interested in what Bobby/Red/Neil/Tighty think of the Seahawks -2.5 @ the Dolphins. It goes against some of the major rules (long journey/away fav) but that´s more than in the spread I think.

[TightEnd]

I´d be interested in what Bobby/Red/Neil/Tighty think of the Seahawks -2.5 @ the Dolphins. It goes against some of the major rules (long journey/away fav) but that´s more than in the spread I think.

The Dolphins also are coming off a ten day break, having played at the Bills on TNF

The Dolphins run defence also is good, and could see less from Marshawn Lynch

Set against that, Wilson has been showng a lot of promising signs in recent weeks opening up the playbook to the likes of Sidney Rice, whereas at the start the offense was very run heavy and one dimensional so the points scoring potential is going up.....

I suppose I would be on the Seattle side, if pressed....