Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

England - South Africa straignt draw, £5 @ 18/1, William Hill, down to Tighty.

ON

24 Nov 2012 - England v South Africa - Match Betting

Draw @ 18/1

Stake : £5.00


Estimated Returns : £95.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000181/F

[tikay]

tikay you pudding, send me your bank details!

Ooh, sorry Sov, will sort it right away.

People sending me monies, lovely.

For those not aware, Sov owes me because I beat a high-class field in "Last Man Standing". Expert, see?

[tikay]

So, Rugby Corry's, is Argentina a bet?

Note we have not had a drop goal (patent pending, Hector) recommend on the England affair.

Is this the same England who spurned several kicks at goal in the last international?  Maybe they will overcompensate by trying to kick everything this week? 

I reckon they might, as they will be sulking, after one eminent Rugby Corry described them as "this England bunch are not up to much at all ".

Serious answer - no idea, I was merely alluding to the interchange between Tighty & Cake Man, & trying to avoid confusion. I have been known to get confused on extremely rare occasions.

I like the drop goal bet. Lambie and Flood between them will be looking for every point

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/autumn-internationals/england-v-south-africa/drop-goal

Shorter prices than last week but still odds against


Argentina? Seek more views. Looks attractive but I can't claim to have seen them this Autumn. I am only going on their improvement and Ireland being no great shakes and missing some key players

The "Any Drop Goal" is only quoted in three spots - 11/8, 5/4, & 9/4!

Ladbrokes, @ 9/4, are miles OOL, unless I am reading it wrong again.


http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/autumn-internationals/england-v-south-africa/drop-goal

[TightEnd]

The Ladbrokes price, you read it right

Think it is

iirc, 5/2 last week landed for Hector in better conditions than today's....

[hector62]

I learnt a long while ago to never oppose Irish teams playing at home and to try and find a way of getting with them. Going for Argentina with a 6 point start feels a bit like opposing them as Ireland will expect to win with a bit of comfort. Ireland had a hard game 2 weeks ago then had a week off whereas Argentina have had 2 tough weeks. I kind of feel Ireland will win by a min of 9 points.

As regards the drop goal Mr T I gave it much ponderance during my half dozing this morning. I came to the conclusion that the price at Twickers should not be more than 5/4 or 6/4 so at 9/4 it is a goer.

Suggest £20 drop goal 9/4 Ladbrokes.

[sovietsong]

tikay you pudding, send me your bank details!

Ooh, sorry Sov, will sort it right away.

People sending me monies, lovely.

For those not aware, Sov owes me because I beat a high-class field in "Last Man Standing". Expert, see?

no worries, you deserved it mate, some excellent selections this time... you didnt get a single prediction wrong which is incredible.  nice work.

[Doobs]

I learnt a long while ago to never oppose Irish teams playing at home and to try and find a way of getting with them. Going for Argentina with a 6 point start feels a bit like opposing them as Ireland will expect to win with a bit of comfort. Ireland had a hard game 2 weeks ago then had a week off whereas Argentina have had 2 tough weeks. I kind of feel Ireland will win by a min of 9 points.

As regards the drop goal Mr T I gave it much ponderance during my half dozing this morning. I came to the conclusion that the price at Twickers should not be more than 5/4 or 6/4 so at 9/4 it is a goer.

Suggest £20 drop goal 9/4 Ladbrokes.

How frequently is a drop goal scored in international rugby matches?

[tikay]

I learnt a long while ago to never oppose Irish teams playing at home and to try and find a way of getting with them. Going for Argentina with a 6 point start feels a bit like opposing them as Ireland will expect to win with a bit of comfort. Ireland had a hard game 2 weeks ago then had a week off whereas Argentina have had 2 tough weeks. I kind of feel Ireland will win by a min of 9 points.

As regards the drop goal Mr T I gave it much ponderance during my half dozing this morning. I came to the conclusion that the price at Twickers should not be more than 5/4 or 6/4 so at 9/4 it is a goer.

Suggest £20 drop goal 9/4 Ladbrokes.

Thanks h, post-ponderance & postulation, done.

£20 @ 9/4, Ladbrokes, a Drop Goal to be scored in the England - South Africa game.


ON


Selection9/4 - Yes

EventEngland v South Africa International Matches

MarketA drop goal in the match?
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Yes
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £65.00
Time: 24/11/12 11:39
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000192

[TightEnd]

Sorry, I don't want to monopolise but

Stoke v Fulham

Fulham cant defend set-plays, this was especially evident last Sunday v Sunderland post Hangeland. Not a lot of height throughout the team...

They travel to Stoke today w/out Hangeland,

Stoke and set plays. Yes.

Shawcross and Huth the centre backs in the goalscorer market

Shawcross 1 goal in 2012, v Fulham

Priced at 28/1 whereas Huth is at 20-1

Banzaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/stoke-v-fulham/first-goalscorer

£3 e/w Shawcross at 28-1 Ladbrokes

E/W pays nearly 9-1 for anytime...

£3 e/w Huth 20-1 Ladbrokes

E/W pays nearly 7-1 for anytime

Huth has scored 1 goal every 10 games for Stoke over 113 games, but none in 12 this season. Mean reversion time

Shawcross has scored 1 goal every 15 games over 155 games, but none in a year...Mean reversion time

[Tal]

I learnt a long while ago to never oppose Irish teams playing at home and to try and find a way of getting with them. Going for Argentina with a 6 point start feels a bit like opposing them as Ireland will expect to win with a bit of comfort. Ireland had a hard game 2 weeks ago then had a week off whereas Argentina have had 2 tough weeks. I kind of feel Ireland will win by a min of 9 points.

You must be loving Ireland -6 at Evs then!

I would tell you I don't see Ireland scoring >23 today and that Argentina getting 18 is believable but...well...you're hector!

[hector62]

I learnt a long while ago to never oppose Irish teams playing at home and to try and find a way of getting with them. Going for Argentina with a 6 point start feels a bit like opposing them as Ireland will expect to win with a bit of comfort. Ireland had a hard game 2 weeks ago then had a week off whereas Argentina have had 2 tough weeks. I kind of feel Ireland will win by a min of 9 points.

As regards the drop goal Mr T I gave it much ponderance during my half dozing this morning. I came to the conclusion that the price at Twickers should not be more than 5/4 or 6/4 so at 9/4 it is a goer.

Suggest £20 drop goal 9/4 Ladbrokes.

How frequently is a drop goal scored in international rugby matches?

I do not have the answer to that question but I can tell you that some matches have a far greater likelihood of one occurring. You want defensive minded, closely matched teams playing on a good surface. Two fly halves who have a drop goal in their arsenal and a match that matters.The England match today meets those criteria even more so than last weeks match against Australia. I said in a previous post that the correct odds today should be 5 or 6/4. So 1 every 1 1/2 matches ish.

[redarmi]

Doesn't Robert Huth take free kicks too?  He did at Boro and had a pretty amazing shot if I recall correctly.

[hector62]

I learnt a long while ago to never oppose Irish teams playing at home and to try and find a way of getting with them. Going for Argentina with a 6 point start feels a bit like opposing them as Ireland will expect to win with a bit of comfort. Ireland had a hard game 2 weeks ago then had a week off whereas Argentina have had 2 tough weeks. I kind of feel Ireland will win by a min of 9 points.

You must be loving Ireland -6 at Evs then!

I would tell you I don't see Ireland scoring >23 today and that Argentina getting 18 is believable but...well...you're hector!

I don't like that bet either. If anything I would look to see if there was a price  I liked on Ireland to win by 15 or more but it is not a match I will be betting on. There are certainly question marks over Ireland but with Ulster and Leinster having good seasons I trust that this will be reflected in an Ireland performance.

[TightEnd]

Doesn't Robert Huth take free kicks too?  He did at Boro and had a pretty amazing shot if I recall correctly.

Don't know, to be frank. Also to be frank, I don't watch too much Stoke!

I went back and read reports of West Ham v Stoke, which I did watch and saw Walters score from the corner with the training ground routine, and noted Shawcross was making the near post runs from corners with Crouch and I know from Pulis interviews that he majors on free kick and corner training/goals...

which got me to thinking, when Hangeland got suspended

[tikay]

Thanks Tighty.

My first reaction when the Hanga bloke - who appears to be about 8' tall, & a genuinely gentle giant normally - was sent off last week is that Fulham would miss him muchly.

I had not thought of this angle though.

Let's chew the cud on this for a while, before banzai-jumping.

Stoke are 6/5 Outright, FWIW.



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/stoke-v-fulham/winner