Tips for Tikay

[typhoon13]

Reminder......


This suggestion remains open to discussion.


Fun4Fraser

£100 Spurs to beat Liverpool 4/5 Daw No bet

I cannot see any way we would ever invest £100 in this, but if the bet reps some sort of value, somewhere between £20 & £50 would be appropriate.


Current DNB prices are....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/tottenham-v-liverpool/draw-no-bet

Current outrights are.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/tottenham-v-liverpool/winner

Thats the bet i have been eyeing up for the Nits thread tonight.

Got to be worth a few rupees.

[Tal]

Objectively, a small investment on a 4/5 shot (even if priced correctly) with the added DNB feature seems harmless

In before "that's ice cream thinking"

Is it still definitely better than betting on spurs to win and the draw separately or laying Liverpool? Just checking as been a while since the price was posted.

[tikay]

Objectively, a small investment on a 4/5 shot (even if priced correctly) with the added DNB feature seems harmless

In before "that's ice cream thinking"

Is it still definitely better than betting on spurs to win and the draw separately or laying Liverpool? Just checking as been a while since the price was posted.

Morning Spurs Bloke.......

The thing is, what SHOULD the price be?

4/7?

4/6?

If the correct price is really 4/5, it is not a bet, as I understand these things.

And if the true price should be 4/7, 4/6 or whatever, on what grounds?

[Bad Beat]

 A guy that I follow on Twitter has a site called predictmachine.com It does Monte-Carlo simulations for US sports. He says San Fran are 27% to win the SuperBowl.

 I liked Keith's bet myself but had been sitting around dithering and flaffing and doing nothing about it for a couple of weeks. Keith knows I was a big San Fran punter last year (and loser). I think in these quite mature markets that stretch over a season 85%+ of the business that has happened so far was prior to week 1, with most of the 15% being done after the first couple of weeks. With just a trickle of money being bet between weeks four and thirteen and so many firms employing odds-compilers who's only skillset is to use a piece of tracing paper I believe that it is possible for fundamental pricing errors to carry over for some time and for bettors like me who were sort of thinking that looks wrong to say - "well, they all make it 5/1 so there is a possibility that I'm wrong, plus there is absolutely no rush to do anything and tie up my money".

 Great bet.
 

[tikay]

http://www.predictionmachine.com/

[edgascoigne]

A sport that had henceforth been a rather glaring blindspot of mine is now front and centre in the "sports I am going to learn about over the coming few months" theatre, owing largely to the purchase of a relatively expensive ticket.

Good luck us.

[Bad Beat]

 While I'm on the subject I have another general point to make about betting that I think will make us some money.

 (I actually think the thread should be as much about discussing general concepts of betting and not just discussing whether some team we saw last week is the lock of the year at 13/10 because we made it 6/5).

 We have to remember that when we bet on mature and liquid markets like the football, (it matters not if we bet 12x, DNB, under, overs, Asian Handicap, ht-ft, correct score as they all derive from one basic price and they all move together accordingly), test match result, NFL, NBA, massive horse races to win like the Grand National...

...it is going to be hard to find value and therefore win. These markets are beaten into shape or more smoothed over by the waves of many, many thousands of punters having their small bets and smoothing the rough edges.

 To beat these markets we have to either bet on stale prices like the Ladbrokes NBA bets yesterday, (great bets - I have no idea if they won, didn't check), that are away from the market, or we have to take advantage of intrinsic biases in the market...eg Liverpool are believed by the Asian Market to be Barcelona in disguise, or in NFL betting on unfashionable teams against fashionable ones in certain spots or for a while there in cricket taking advantage of the fact that the Dubai/Indian market was massively overbetting the draw in every test match.

 They are beatable but it is hard.

[Bad Beat]

 There is some better news though...

 In other kinds of markets where there is no maturity and thousands or millions of $$$ worth of bets have not been placed we are often getting the chance to pit our wits against a single odds-compiler or a group of odds-compilers.

 Some of these people have been in the industry for many years and I would respect their judgement. They are capable of leaving their £25k-£40k job working in the betting industry and making £100k gambling their own money but they choose the low-variance route and they like working.

 Others are complete fucking morons.

 We really have a chance to beat the people who put up early horse prices overnight for B365, we can pick off the guy doing the elimination betting on IACGMOOH very easily, we have a great shot at doing better than the Hills man on number of centuries at the Crucible, we can crush all the people that do the darts betting for every firm, etc etc (I'm sure you guys can think of many examples).

 In these situations we are testing something that Hector tried to have a go at recently - seeing if the wisdom of the crowd will come out best.

 I believe in these things it will and I think we should focus our energies here. I would suggest limiting the bets placed on Tottenham DNB which just cannot be THAT wrong,(sorry Fraser - it could actually because of the aforementioned Liverpool bias but you know what I mean), and making bets on things where it's us against some kid who's only watched eight Grand Nationals a much bigger part of the money we gamble.

 In fact I would be very interested in a breakdown of the spreadsheet to show whether we have done better on this kind of stuff compared with that where we are competing with the whole world.

[TightEnd]

I'd like to raise a couple of points

Bets were missed last night despite being up for 48 hours before the event (and then collated for easy use)

The excellent 49ers bet (we hope) was placed as soon as it was seen. Understandably

The non-placed bets needed support to be placed, but with the best will in the world (to pick one example)
a first goal scorer bet on Dean Hammond is unlikely to be supported. Who knows enough about or has seen Mr Hammond to say anything either way?

Same for a lot of the more specialist bets in some sports. How can they be supported enough to be backed if no one has the knowledge to row in behind?

Similarly the Watford bet was tipped in two places. Is that not enough? The Watford tip was put up by someone whose team they were playing, and I tend to think when someone is actively prepared to tip against their own team (who watches as a season ticket holder) that's quite a powerful signal


Just food for thought.

[Longy]

I believe the "first superbowl" was not officially called that but was a nickname that stuck and became official.

The game was the called the NFL-AFL Championship which were two competing pro football leagues at the time and did not merge until 1970 (first superbowl was 67'). The modern NFL is still mainly aligned with those leagues with the AFC mainly comprimising old AFL franchises and the NFC mainly NFL franchises.

[tikay]

I'd like to raise a couple of points

Bets were missed last night despite being up for 48 hours before the event (and then collated for easy use)

The excellent 49ers bet (we hope) was placed as soon as it was seen. Understandably

The non-placed bets needed support to be placed, but with the best will in the world (to pick one example)
a first goal scorer bet on Dean Hammond is unlikely to be supported. Who knows enough about or has seen Mr Hammond to say anything either way?

Same for a lot of the more specialist bets in some sports. How can they be supported enough to be backed if no one has the knowledge to row in behind?

Similarly the Watford bet was tipped in two places. Is that not enough? The Watford tip was put up by someone whose team they were playing, and I tend to think when someone is actively prepared to tip against their own team (who watches as a season ticket holder) that's quite a powerful signal


Just food for thought.

The Watford bet - yes, down to me that - I SHOULD have backed it. Not ducking resdponsibility, but my job next door is pretty heavy right now, & I have a lot of stuff on my plate irl. Hard to find the time to do all the things I'd like......

The Hammond FGS bet - these are tricky, in truth, & usually I just sort of go by gut feel, knowledge of the poster, da de da.

I would wager a good deal of money that if we backed every FGS bet ever placed here, we would have lost a ton of money.

Awkward.

[tikay]

(I actually think the thread should be as much about discussing general concepts of betting and not just discussing whether some team we saw last week is the lock of the year at 13/10 because we made it 6/5).

LIKE

[Bad Beat]

 Good point Tighty. It's obviously hard for everyone to comment on everything - I personally read the thread every day, but there are a lot of days where I have nothing much to offer, or no time to post.

 I do think that missing a few 12x footy bets will do the balance no harm, although I totally agree that I am much more likely to listen to someone betting against their own team

 I just thought of an example to illustrate what I was saying above.

 The Ladbrokes NFL guy obviously does a lot of work. I don't know him, but I picture a very keen young fella who loves NFL and who puts a lot of time in on his sport. He has prices up every day, he updates season wins, divisions, top ruisher, passer and receiver for the season as well as the SuperBowl, the individual games, the college stuff and the player props.

 That is a ridiculously large ampount of work for one guy and I'd say he would be very lucky if there is a second person he can consult with who has anywhere near his level of knowledge to try the prices out on before they go up. With the volume of bets he has to offer he has to work hard every day just to keep going.

 I'd like to bet that Phil has watched many, many, many more NFL games than him and I know that Phil has more industry experience of betting and pricing.

 Phil has one massive advantage that the poor fella in Harrow doesn't have...

 PHIL DOES NOT HAVE TO BET ON EVERYTHING.

 If Phil stays selective and picks out 20 bets a year he could lose, because of variance, it's a small sample but wouldn't you take 1/4 that he would win?

 I would.

 On that basis ALL of these bets should be NO DITHERING, NO FLAFFING, MAXIMUM every time.

 It's only going to be a rare time that everyone turns around and says that Phil has forgotten something or missed an injury or something.

 I wouldn't bet 1/4 that the next 20 12x football bets win. I wouldn't bet 4/7 and be happy.

 This is not to say that people don't know enough about football - they are just playing a game that is WAY harder to win.

 Game selection for the win.
 

[Tonji]

"Similarly the Watford bet was tipped in two places. Is that not enough? The Watford tip was put up by someone whose team they were playing, and I tend to think when someone is actively prepared to tip against their own team (who watches as a season ticket holder) that's quite a powerful signal"

I'll nearly always have a small interest in this type of recommendation, although also missed the Watford one. Mr DungB has had some success in this area I think.

[Tal]

Objectively, a small investment on a 4/5 shot (even if priced correctly) with the added DNB feature seems harmless

In before "that's ice cream thinking"

Is it still definitely better than betting on spurs to win and the draw separately or laying Liverpool? Just checking as been a while since the price was posted.

Morning Spurs Bloke.......

The thing is, what SHOULD the price be?

4/7?

4/6?

If the correct price is really 4/5, it is not a bet, as I understand these things.

And if the true price should be 4/7, 4/6 or whatever, on what grounds?

This is the whole point. We seem collectively to be of the view that 4/5 DNB is about right. If Fred opines that it is more likely that spurs will win than Liverpool (and crucially more than the difference between 4/5 and Even money), am I right in saying that this makes it a bet?

If the midfield from spurs is Bale, Lennon, Sandro and Dembele, I have difficulty seeing Spurs losing the game very often, but suggesting I understand the market better than the football odds compilers for this market would be a lie.