Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Fwiw I think that a lot of the more inspiring posts can come from explanations of why a suggested bet is not good as to why a particular bet is a good one so if people stopped posting suggestions a lot of the better discussions would never take place and whilst some of us may be better at the mechanics of the betting I would argue that the most knowledgeable sports guys on here have a lot to add but sometimes don't have the knowledge to know the best way to utilise that knowledge.  In that sense as a whole we are much stronger than the sum of our parts.

A great example is Ant.  He has a great knowledge of Crystal Palace and correctly surmised that they were playing very well and are possibly one of the top teams in the Championship.  What he probably doesn't have the experience to do is translate that into a price and truly understand when the market begins to share his view.  Some of the sharper guys pretty much surmised that happened this past weekend at Leeds so we didn't bet them but Palace might not have come across our radar if it wasn't for Ant and he also stimulated a lot of debate around football pricing.  For me that is what Fred is all about.

[millidonk]

I personally think the hard part is not finding a decent enough bet but betting your money properly and remaining disciplined.

What fascinates me is the specifics of how the elders actually got started on the road to where they are now. The common theme seems to be worked in the industry then went it alone, but did they grind up a roll on the side while in employment, start with small roll and be uber aggressive, have one mega bink and take the plunge, remortgage the house etc?

[Nico29]

Fwiw I think that a lot of the more inspiring posts can come from explanations of why a suggested bet is not good as to why a particular bet is a good one so if people stopped posting suggestions a lot of the better discussions would never take place and whilst some of us may be better at the mechanics of the betting I would argue that the most knowledgeable sports guys on here have a lot to add but sometimes don't have the knowledge to know the best way to utilise that knowledge.  In that sense as a whole we are much stronger than the sum of our parts.

A great example is Ant.  He has a great knowledge of Crystal Palace and correctly surmised that they were playing very well and are possibly one of the top teams in the Championship.  What he probably doesn't have the experience to do is translate that into a price and truly understand when the market begins to share his view.  Some of the sharper guys pretty much surmised that happened this past weekend at Leeds so we didn't bet them but Palace might not have come across our radar if it wasn't for Ant and he also stimulated a lot of debate around football pricing.  For me that is what Fred is all about.

Very good post

[hector62]

Mr Tal keep on contributing, you never know what you write may help in some unexpected ways. Take for instance last Saturday. We had a discussion on the Ireland rugby match. You thought Argentina +6 were a good bet and I thought they weren't. But it made me rethink the match. I came to the conclusion that the statement that I thought the value was in Ireland to win by 15 or more points was indeed a good bet. So despite writing that I was not going to bet the match I did indeed do it and so made some money and that was as a direct result of your input.

As far as quirky bets are concerned then I am all for them. We have enough serious bets but I love the strange ones even more. The thread has many aims and fun is high on the list. As grown ups we are all capable of making decisions on whether to back suggestions but just because we have no financial interest ourselves does not mean that we do not get enjoyment out of following them.

Once again thanks for the Argentina tip.

[tikay]

I must echo the sentiments of Horneris (albeit as a hobbyist rather than a budding punter) – compelling and insightful contributions as ever by those in the know.

It has made me reflect, as I am wont to do, on my posts on this thread. I probably discuss sports and possible bets as much as most and do so on the whole without anything more than an interest in the field. I rarely come from a position of knowledge, at least of critical depth, and whilst I have a basic grasp of fractions, probability and stats, my interest in these surpasses my ability.

Occasionally, I will stumble across what I perceive to be a wonky price (the Zabaletta booking springs to mind) and have no intention of changing whether I bring that to the thread’s attention; after all, it seems to fit the criteria for bets being posted.

I would like to think that there is room in this thread for my occasional oddball bets like the Booker Prize but I wholeheartedly recognise that posting doesn’t mean they get either embraced or placed. That said, I am feeling a touch insecure – I suspect quite rightly – about putting up bets where I am far from the thread expert.

Reading the past few pages has left me with an image of the likes of bobby1, horseplayer, BadBeat et al rolling their eyes at the sight of a Tal post. “FFS he’s off again”. You’re all people with more experience of both the industry and blonde itself. If I’m wasting your and everyone else’s time, tell me (politely, ideally, but all feedback gratefully received, up to and included STFU; on thread or by PM). I’ve learned more from the last thousand pages than I have likely displayed but there’s a seemingly unparalleled smorgasbord of wisdom watching and posting on here and I would hate to taint it.  

Perhaps I have more knowledge of chess than most (despite the very rare betting opportunities – I assume the paucity of markets means the chances they’re out of line are virtually nil?), but that’s not going to warrant more than a handful of posts a year, perhaps mercifully...

One thing I do like to do is ask questions about betting, odds compilation and markets. If that’s for another thread, fine, but people who can answer the question tune into this one regularly. I only ask because I am genuinely interested.

As for the shape of what is posted on here in the future, if Fred knows what Fred wants, say so and I’m happy to abide by that.

No no nooooooooooooo!

Keep posting, the quirkier the better.

That's half the fun, these obscure things, & we more often KNOW we have an edge in some of these weirdo markets. (Art etc).

More of the same, nobody mocks, & it's an essential part of the recipe here.

[TightEnd]

Your daily 49ers update

Kaepernick running sprints with 50-lb plates on his back on off-day for team. 

He has the right work ethic

[simonnatur]

I had a small interest in the 49ers Superbowl outright win and just wanted to ask if anyone thinks there is value in betting this e/w   ?

[Simon Galloway]

ew terms are 1/2 the odds a place 1 or 2.  (apart from one firm that go 1/3 odds....)

I haven't thought too much about the maths of it, but intuitively it feels like I'd rather have double the win bet (if they don't make it thru the playoffs then you lose 2xwin bets or win and place bet so no difference) and then assuming things go well, depending on other results, next opponents, lay a little off to suit your pocket as they shorten. 

I'd still have the lion's share left on the nose though for the final, may well be a possibility to take a good middle if the opponents are spotted several points (or IR if opponents score first)

[tikay]

ew terms are 1/2 the odds a place 1 or 2.  (apart from one firm that go 1/3 odds....)

I haven't thought too much about the maths of it, but intuitively it feels like I'd rather have double the win bet (if they don't make it thru the playoffs then you lose 2xwin bets or win and place bet so no difference) and then assuming things go well, depending on other results, next opponents, lay a little off to suit your pocket as they shorten.  

I'd still have the lion's share left on the nose though for the final, may well be a possibility to take a good middle if the opponents are spotted several points (or IR if opponents score first)

....and presumably, IF they make the Superbowl, we/he would be in a position to protect or insure the bet via the Exchanges anyway? We are on at nearly 6/1, & if they make the 'Bowl, they'd be MUCH shorter no matter who the opponents are.

And if they fail to make the 'Bowl, the EW bet would be dead anyway.

[redarmi]

I personally think the hard part is not finding a decent enough bet but betting your money properly and remaining disciplined.

What fascinates me is the specifics of how the elders actually got started on the road to where they are now. The common theme seems to be worked in the industry then went it alone, but did they grind up a roll on the side while in employment, start with small roll and be uber aggressive, have one mega bink and take the plunge, remortgage the house etc?

I think we all worked in the industry at some point and most of us still do to some degree.  If you love gambling and sport then it is a fairly natural career path as people generally dont leave university with the bankroll to go betting sports but I think we were all very lucky in terms of timing.  

In terms of Neil, Keith, Phil and myself I think I am correct in saying that we are all within ten years of each other in age.  this meant that we were all in our late teens or early twenties with very few responsibilities when the Uk government abolished betting duty added to stakes and were at the exact right age when gambling hit the internet and all of a sudden a new bunch of firms came to market.  This meant that from being in a situation where there were maybe 30 odds compilers anywhere to maybe 3000+ now so there were opportunities and, speaking for me personally i was able to parlay the little bit of experience I had into a fairly good job.  I was a trading director for an oddschecker firm at 26 and a director of a major US player at 28.  If I had been born ten years later like Brent the pretty much no matter how talented I was I would have had to wait 20 maybe 30 years for those same opportunities.  It also gave us opportunities as bettors because a lot of those 3000 odds compilers, as Neil alluded to earlier, are basically absolutely clueless so we were able to make good money betting.  It is one of my eternal regrets that I didn't grind betting as hard in the early 2000's as I maybe should have but i did alright out of it.  That said I made a lot of mistakes and my money management was appalling.  I also made a lot of the mistakes we have seen from the young poker players since.  I partied way too hard and it cost me days of opportunities and I didn't work when I was supposed to.  I also 'wasted' a lot of time on a corporate career in the betting industry that I wasn't really suited to.  Now I am in a place I am comfortable with.  I work a bit in a role which I was hired for on the basis of my experience.  I bet more than ever and the guy i work for doesn't see that as a distraction like so many would due to the fact he is one of the biggest bettors in the world.  My bankroll still isn't as big as I would like but in many ways I like that.  To give you an idea in the last month I have turned over gbp75k.  I made just over 2k but I never once placed a bet bigger than gbp600 and my average bet was just gbp142 so it is a LOT of bets although i do still have a partner in all this that is responsible for a fair few of those bets.

Probably did more than answer the original question so sorry for the derail!!!

[millidonk]

Red that is exactly the stuff I love to read! Those stats are absolutely staggering. Apologise for asking such a probing question which would clearly lead to a derail. Worth bumping the old diary, was the first thread I used to read in the morning when it was active. Your horse paid for the Milligan's Xmas last year. Have a thousand more questions.

[tikay]

Me too, love that Post by reds.

I have a question, too.

Guys like reds, bobby, Neil, & especially (I don't know why "especially") Camel.....

How do you keep track of your bets, & P & L? I don't want to see examples, but is it similar (in principle if not detail) to the Fred Spready?

Do you leave cash in each account all the time, or do you withdraw each day, or when it reaches a certain amount? 

[redarmi]

If you can find it mate then bump it.  Wanted to post a ramble about Frank 'Lefty' Rosenthal for ages but it doesn't really fit in this thread.  

[tikay]

Bingo!

Quality fishing Milli, respect to you.

[Simon Galloway]

ew terms are 1/2 the odds a place 1 or 2.  (apart from one firm that go 1/3 odds....)

I haven't thought too much about the maths of it, but intuitively it feels like I'd rather have double the win bet (if they don't make it thru the playoffs then you lose 2xwin bets or win and place bet so no difference) and then assuming things go well, depending on other results, next opponents, lay a little off to suit your pocket as they shorten.  

I'd still have the lion's share left on the nose though for the final, may well be a possibility to take a good middle if the opponents are spotted several points (or IR if opponents score first)

....and presumably, IF they make the Superbowl, we/he would be in a position to protect or insure the bet via the Exchanges anyway? We are on at nearly 6/1, & if they make the 'Bowl, they'd be MUCH shorter no matter who the opponents are.

And if they fail to make the 'Bowl, the EW bet would be dead anyway.

Yes, that's the way I look at it.  But..... The attraction for me this way is if they make the final and their inferior opponents are +5 on the hcap.  Now rather than "greening up" on betty, you could bet the opponents +5

SF win by >5, collect at near 6/1, subtract losing bet on opponents
Opponents win, lose SF bet and get it back from your cover bet.

SF win by 1-4 points:  WIN on your 6/1 bet and WIN on your cover bet.  Nice when it happens.