Tips for Tikay

[OverTheBorder]

Leics 9-2 with Stan James for championship. Stan the biggest price plus the only

firm going 1-4 odds first 3. To me this looks a bet to nothing because cannot see Leics

being out of first 3. Thoughts anyone ?

Stan James cut Fred off, which may be an issue

[atdc21]

Ok will leave it at that.
still amazes me when i see some of the prices matched in running on betfair.
hopefully the racing will get under way again soon.

[The Camel]

"28-31 with Sporting.
Looks very very high to me, I could only sell."

You are of course correct Camel.  Unfortunately I am a mug when I come to spread bets, so I just want to buy at £3 and get a bit of adrenaline in exchange for my £90.  I hang my head in shame considering the wise heads on this thread, but for some reason on spreads I see it as a simple transaction of cash in exchange for adrenaline.  For some reason fixed odds doesn't have this irrational impact on me.  

Surely you get the same rush, for a much cheaper price by buying the minutes of someone at 3 or 4?

Konchesky has always had a rocket shot on him, how much license to come forward has he got in the current set up?

Morgan is a big lump, does he come up for all set pieces?

I'd rather play one of those two at 4 than Wood at 31!

[atdc21]

Hey Camel, just an aside, do you ever watch a race without betfair going, see aparticular horse do whatever in the race and think wonder how short that went/ or if it won what price it went to? then go and have alook and see how close you were to the prices matched?

[Simon Galloway]

In the "Greening" debate, reds, & then Neil, both mentioned "redding out".

The reason I think most people would be guilty of a mistake is cutting profits too soon (to lock up a profit) and yet running losses (refusing to "red out" and admit they were wrong.)  So they never give themselves a chance to enjoy freak returns, only small profits or big losses.  That is human nature, but obviously the wrong way round if you want to do it for a living. 

You missed my single opportunity this year to get any credit

[The Camel]

Ok will leave it at that.
still amazes me when i see some of the prices matched in running on betfair.
hopefully the racing will get under way again soon.

It's after timing though isn't it?

After the race we can always be shocked at how short something traded, but at the very instant the bet is matched, it was more likely to be value for the bettor than the layer imo.

You don't see many horses matched at 1.1 and think "that's value" but invariably they are.

Good luck.

[DungBeetle]

Meh - it's on already.  Come on the icecream bet

[DungBeetle]

As an aside, my shrewdness allowed me to pick up Wood at the bargain price of 30.

[TightEnd]

As an aside, my shrewdness allowed me to pick up Wood at the bargain price of 30.

Ritchie De Laet or Wes Morgan

Little downside, big upside.

[The Camel]

Hey Camel, just an aside, do you ever watch a race without betfair going, see aparticular horse do whatever in the race and think wonder how short that went/ or if it won what price it went to? then go and have alook and see how close you were to the prices matched?

Regularly!

Actually think the market is getting amazingly efficient these days.

Horse that I think "I bet that traded at 1.2" I check and find they've never been shorter than 1.5.

Five plus years ago, trading horses in running would have been easy mony.

I think I'm a pretty good judge at horse racing and even with the fastest internet/pictures, I would make myself odds against to make money betting in running.

I think it's an unbeatable game.

You're up against too many brilliant people.

[atdc21]

prob right about the progress within, technollogy soon catches up, before betfair i used a site called flutter.com, there was so few people on it the person putting the bet up and the layer had there 'names' on each bet, and they emailed you every time you had a bet matched.

[doubleup]

Hi again Camel, would be interesting to see figures.
i did mess about putting in those type lays at all sorts of prices when first came out, trouble is unless you do it all time evry race etc never know where you are and profit margins are small, i like a punt on bigger price stuff usually, im only small fry stakes but love horse racing, good luck.

sp 2 or more and in running 2 or less 24346- winners 13046

[BigAdz]

As someone that greens out(or attempts to) on nearly every bet, I see it from a different slant.

If I back a horse eg £50 @ 10-1, I will always lay the horse back at even money for my £50. It is effectively my way of backing each way, or easing that sinking feeling of looking a winner then getting nabbed on the line.

Invariably, not always, but if my horse looks anything like winning at any stage, it can easily go evs. This way even when the horse doesnt win I get my stake back. If it wins I effectively get my horse at a point lower, but tbh, I really dont think that I can honestly say if the horse was value at 10s, its not a bet at , if you get my drift.

Since I have used this approach, the P&L has looked a lot healthier. That said, I rarely back favourites or short prices so my methodology maybe works differently.

The problem with your approach is, as Neil said, is that you only get matched for the in running bet if the evens is value.

You are pissing equity up against the wall.

All the times your 10/1 doesn't trade at evens, you lose your £50.

Over 50% of the time you lay evens and the horse wins, you lose £50 of your winnings.

This cannot be a profitable strategy.

Totally understand what you are saying Keith. I don't disagree, but I suspect the sample size has some vagaries when it comes to the SP of the horse traded. I would imagine that the shorter the odds the more likely it is to win having traded below evens.
It feels that the sort of range of priced horses I back, get in good position(ie trade at evs or below) but certainly don't win as often as the numbers suggest. To be honest whilst I keep records I would need to do a whole lot more digging to prove/disprove my theory. All I know is my feelgood factor is higher from having more bets that have a return, regardless of losing a little equity along the way.

Hope that makes sense?!

[peejaytwo]

As usual when i post on here,it's not a tip as such but a price discrepency!!

Tomorrows ODI batsmen runs

Gambhir under/over 22.5 paddy  but  u/o 29.5 laddies
Bell u/o 22.5 paddy  but u/o 29.5 laddies
Cook u/o 23.5 paddy  but 31.5 laddies

obv someone is wrong somewhere so there is value in whatever you want to do.
i thought about emptying the clip for massive middles bets at the prices but checked for cook and gambhir and they hit the figures( i.e 23-29 for Gambhir only about 10% of the time)

as i think Cooks in great nick ive bet over 23.5.

So they were the figs from the previous ODI.
todays offering for the match tomorrow are as follows:-

Cook       26.5 Paddy     31.5 Laddies
Bell         24.5               29.5
Gambhir  25.5               28.5
Rahane   25.5               27.5

So the discrepancy has narrowed making the middles a much harder proposition. Paddy has upped his lines a couple of points so i dont feel like paying 26.5 for Overs on Cook after 23.5 was available last time although if the groundsman is right and 300+ is batting "par" i may be regretting been a nit!

[The Camel]

As someone that greens out(or attempts to) on nearly every bet, I see it from a different slant.

If I back a horse eg £50 @ 10-1, I will always lay the horse back at even money for my £50. It is effectively my way of backing each way, or easing that sinking feeling of looking a winner then getting nabbed on the line.

Invariably, not always, but if my horse looks anything like winning at any stage, it can easily go evs. This way even when the horse doesnt win I get my stake back. If it wins I effectively get my horse at a point lower, but tbh, I really dont think that I can honestly say if the horse was value at 10s, its not a bet at , if you get my drift.

Since I have used this approach, the P&L has looked a lot healthier. That said, I rarely back favourites or short prices so my methodology maybe works differently.

The problem with your approach is, as Neil said, is that you only get matched for the in running bet if the evens is value.

You are pissing equity up against the wall.

All the times your 10/1 doesn't trade at evens, you lose your £50.

Over 50% of the time you lay evens and the horse wins, you lose £50 of your winnings.

This cannot be a profitable strategy.

Totally understand what you are saying Keith. I don't disagree, but I suspect the sample size has some vagaries when it comes to the SP of the horse traded. I would imagine that the shorter the odds the more likely it is to win having traded below evens.
It feels that the sort of range of priced horses I back, get in good position(ie trade at evs or below) but certainly don't win as often as the numbers suggest. To be honest whilst I keep records I would need to do a whole lot more digging to prove/disprove my theory. All I know is my feelgood factor is higher from having more bets that have a return, regardless of losing a little equity along the way.

Hope that makes sense?!

If you are doing for "feel good" reasons, than that's fine.

Just know for sure, in the long run, you are giving money away for the ability to sleep well at night!