Tips for Tikay

[Bazzaboy]

Aydin v Soto Karass

Bet365 go 7/2 Aydin on points which is ool (12/5 biggest elsewhere). Karass has been stopped twice in 8 defeats including last time out against Maidana who bangs very hard, however he was competitive in that fight until he walked on to one. He is relatively limited but usually durable and managed to go the distance with Mike Jones twice. Aydin has stopped 17 of 23 but isn't a huge puncher. Recommend £20 if Bet365 will allow it.

Unfortunately, Bet365 restricted me to £2.86, and as you note, they are way ool, no other firm have a price anywhere near that.

It s really hard to predict what Bet365 will permit me, there seems no logic to it.

Yeah I thought the chances of them laying you anything on a MOV market in a pretty low key fight was slim. Was worth a try though.

[Sheriff Fatman]

May I suggest betting the unders on tomorrow's farce of an American Football game, aka The Pro Bowl.  For those new to the NFL, this is the annual end of season NFC vs AFC game which takes place in Hawaii and is generally a bit of a jolly boys outing for those selected and their families (who still get paid $25k, I think, to participate).  It used to follow the Superbowl, but now fills in the gap in the week before, hence there'll be no Ravens or 49ers players taking part.

This celebration of all that is great in the NFL has become increasingly unwatchable in recent seasons as it's increasingly started to resemble a non-contact training session, thus allowing the QBs to sling numerous TD passes to all and sundry, while the two lines basically crouch down and shake hands with each other at each snap.  IIRC, the crowd started booing on the first drive last season.

The last two games have finished 55-41 and 59-41, leading the bookies to set points lines at the 80-83.5 mark at prices around 10/11.

However, if you look a little further back in the history, you then have to go to 2003 to find another total >80 points and most other games have had a vaguely sensible scoreline.

The bigger factor to consider is that, after last season's game, and at various points subsequent to this, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell threatened to cancel the fixture in future if the quality of the game continued in this way.  Consequently, this game will come under heavy scrutiny from the NFL and the watching public and therefore should revert to something resembling a football game once again.  I may be wrong, but the line set so high assumes a repeat of the last two season's farces and looks like a worthwhile gamble to me if the players want to retain their annual week in the sun going forward.  Don't get me wrong, it's still going to be an exhibition game, but will hopefully now look like a pre-season game, rather than a training session and (whisper it quietly) we may see some tackling going on.

Obviously, there are plenty of NFL followers who will have their own views on this, so there should be a good opportunity to sense check my thinking.

Take your pick of where's best to place a bet:
Boylesports has under 83.5 at 20/23
Skybet has the best 10/11 line of 82.5, but is obviously off-limits for Fred
Hills goes 10/11 under 82.
Pretty much everywhere else is 10/11 under 80.

Other than Skybet, I'm not sure what's on and off limits for Fred so:

Assuming Fred has an account there, I recommend £25, under 82pts with William Hill in preference to the slightly worse price on a higher line with Boyles (I await being shot by one of the experienced NFL guys for this but I'm not sure the extra 1.5pts makes much difference at a spread this high).   

I'd prefer the Boyles line to the generally available under 80pts elsewhere, but think all are playable if account restrictions at Hills and Boyles apply.

I'd also recommend giving the game 10 minutes to see if it's watchable (they do have great uniforms though!)

NB: One thing to be aware of is that special rules apply in this game (e.g. I think defences aren't allowed to blitz the QB) so this makes it easier to rack up a higher score than usual, but in a vaguely competitive game I'd probably expect something around the 70-75pt mark to be the right sort of area.

[TightEnd]

No blitzing of QBs, that is correct

If the players have any sense they'll make it lower scoring and more competitive

It's a huge beano for selected players and media, and many existing contracts have bonuses built in for selection to Pro-Bowls, which obviously will be a thing of the past if bad PR causes the Pro Bowl to be cancelled...

[tikay]

Evening Mr T. Has anyone proposed backing Murray tomorrow ? His record in this tournament is very impressive. Didn't drop a set until Federer and in terms of points won, errors, and winners he outplayed him. Djokovic has only looked good in his match with Ferrer who was exhausted from his previous 5 setter. 13/8 with Betfred looks good to me.

Against well-intentioned & good advice, we have had a Murray tickle - just £10 - at 7/4, with my friends at Bet365.

Cover me, we are going in.

£10 @ 7/4, Bet365, Sir Andy Murray.

ON

Andy Murray @ 7/4
£10.00 Single    26/01/2013 23:52:14    10.00    0.00

[Tal]

There's an unders market for the pro bowl? Has anyone told the defences?

[tikay]

I ran into an Irish poker player...no names...(made November 9, young fella). He is a fantastic judge of tennis and betting and plays the game to a high standard.

 Obv 1st question was: "What are the correct prices?" his reply "13/8 and 8/13 are spot on".

 I spoke to two other pros (not specialiists in tennis but good gamblers) and they fancied Djork at 8/13.

 I was thinking I'd have a punt as I'm here and watching it, but only if they could persuade me I was getting a couple of pips of value.

 At 4/6 I might play or at 15/8 I might back Murray. Probably no bet for me though.

Does he have hair like thuis?

[Tal]

If so, the conversation that followed might have gone...


BadBeat: I told Tikay what you said and he STILL went ahead and bet on Murray.

Tennis expert: You cannot be serious!

[tikay]

May I suggest betting the unders on tomorrow's farce of an American Football game, aka The Pro Bowl.  For those new to the NFL, this is the annual end of season NFC vs AFC game which takes place in Hawaii and is generally a bit of a jolly boys outing for those selected and their families (who still get paid $25k, I think, to participate).  It used to follow the Superbowl, but now fills in the gap in the week before, hence there'll be no Ravens or 49ers players taking part.

This celebration of all that is great in the NFL has become increasingly unwatchable in recent seasons as it's increasingly started to resemble a non-contact training session, thus allowing the QBs to sling numerous TD passes to all and sundry, while the two lines basically crouch down and shake hands with each other at each snap.  IIRC, the crowd started booing on the first drive last season.

The last two games have finished 55-41 and 59-41, leading the bookies to set points lines at the 80-83.5 mark at prices around 10/11.

However, if you look a little further back in the history, you then have to go to 2003 to find another total >80 points and most other games have had a vaguely sensible scoreline.

The bigger factor to consider is that, after last season's game, and at various points subsequent to this, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell threatened to cancel the fixture in future if the quality of the game continued in this way.  Consequently, this game will come under heavy scrutiny from the NFL and the watching public and therefore should revert to something resembling a football game once again.  I may be wrong, but the line set so high assumes a repeat of the last two season's farces and looks like a worthwhile gamble to me if the players want to retain their annual week in the sun going forward.  Don't get me wrong, it's still going to be an exhibition game, but will hopefully now look like a pre-season game, rather than a training session and (whisper it quietly) we may see some tackling going on.

Obviously, there are plenty of NFL followers who will have their own views on this, so there should be a good opportunity to sense check my thinking.

Take your pick of where's best to place a bet:
Boylesports has under 83.5 at 20/23
Skybet has the best 10/11 line of 82.5, but is obviously off-limits for Fred
Hills goes 10/11 under 82.
Pretty much everywhere else is 10/11 under 80.

Other than Skybet, I'm not sure what's on and off limits for Fred so:

Assuming Fred has an account there, I recommend £25, under 82pts with William Hill in preference to the slightly worse price on a higher line with Boyles (I await being shot by one of the experienced NFL guys for this but I'm not sure the extra 1.5pts makes much difference at a spread this high).   

I'd prefer the Boyles line to the generally available under 80pts elsewhere, but think all are playable if account restrictions at Hills and Boyles apply.

I'd also recommend giving the game 10 minutes to see if it's watchable (they do have great uniforms though!)

NB: One thing to be aware of is that special rules apply in this game (e.g. I think defences aren't allowed to blitz the QB) so this makes it easier to rack up a higher score than usual, but in a vaguely competitive game I'd probably expect something around the 70-75pt mark to be the right sort of area.

That all makes sense, thanks Curtis, & we have active & unrestricted accounts with both Boylesports & Willliam Hill.

Happy to consider this, & get on if need be, though a wily NFL pro punter told me never to bet on the Pro Bowl, & that points will always be high because the tackling lacks bite, so the O have an easy time of it.

Let's decide tomorrow, in the light of feedback & comment.

[tikay]

If so....


BadBeat: I told Tikay what you said and he STILL went ahead and bet on Murray.

Tennis expert: You cannot be serious!

Very good.

Tell him we got 7/4, which is nearly 15/8.........

PS - Did you ever read McEnroe's book, "Serious"? Top read, & he is not at all what you might expect.

[Sheriff Fatman]

That all makes sense, thanks Curtis, & we have active & unrestricted accounts with both Boylesports & Willliam Hill.

Happy to consider this, & get on if need be, thoiugh a wily NFL pro punter told me never to bet on the Pro Bowl, & that points will always be high because the tackling lacks bite, so the O have an easy time of it.

Let's decide tomorrow, in the light of feedback & comment.

Generally I'd agree with the wily punter on that.

The key thing I'm considering here is the impact of the fixture being at risk, which I have no doubt is absolutely genuine.  Goodell will act if things continue as they have.

For me though, It's hard to look at the scoring history of the fixture and not see under 82 points as value.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl

Absolutely fine with waiting for feedback though, as there are some very sharp NFL minds on here who I was assuming would have a view.

[Tal]

Can't say I have, Tikay. I went through a spell of reading autobiographies and tried to select some odd ones (Henry Blofeld being a fave). McEnroe missed me. If I were reading a tennis autobiography now, I'd probably start with Agassi...

[The Camel]

I think betting the unders in the Pro Bowl is a better value bet than Andy Murray.

#justsaying

[maldini32]

Aydin v Soto Karass

Bet365 go 7/2 Aydin on points which is ool (12/5 biggest elsewhere). Karass has been stopped twice in 8 defeats including last time out against Maidana who bangs very hard, however he was competitive in that fight until he walked on to one. He is relatively limited but usually durable and managed to go the distance with Mike Jones twice. Aydin has stopped 17 of 23 but isn't a huge puncher. Recommend £20 if Bet365 will allow it.

im assuming points is the same as decision/technical decision?

[Bazzaboy]

Aydin v Soto Karass

Bet365 go 7/2 Aydin on points which is ool (12/5 biggest elsewhere). Karass has been stopped twice in 8 defeats including last time out against Maidana who bangs very hard, however he was competitive in that fight until he walked on to one. He is relatively limited but usually durable and managed to go the distance with Mike Jones twice. Aydin has stopped 17 of 23 but isn't a huge puncher. Recommend £20 if Bet365 will allow it.

im assuming points is the same as decision/technical decision?

Correct

[redarmi]

Fwiw which, on tennis, is almost zero, I have back Djokovic at 1.55 because,erm, someone told me to.