Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

"Fitz Hall, Ekstrand, Murray, Hogg, Eustace, Geijo, Forestieri.

Guessing Vydra will get a rest tonight but, if there's no Chalaboah or Deeney, I'm backing the tractors."

Anya was electric at Brum and hasn't played much so that is important as it will likely keep out of form Murray from having another chance.  Think Ektrand and Hall are both injured

So perhaps:

Almunia

Anya
Pudil
Hoban
Nosworthy
Doyley

Eustace
Abdi
Battochio/Hogg

Geijo/Deeney
Forestieri

It's still pretty strong I guess.

[redarmi]

Zola talking to Watford Observer about resting the big guns again for tonight's game at Ipswich.  Sigh.

Make of that what you will from a betting perspective.

Dammit Zola, this is the Championship, and you have to put out your best XI unless there's a good reason not to. Remember Brizzle City?

Seems fair given this news and the market hasnt moved really.  It is also bigger than Betfair which is generally a profitable strategy.
We should take the 15/8 on Ipswich surely?  Especially those that took the 180s on Watford to win the championship.

Yup - probably a spot of value given what happened against Charlton and Bristol City.

"Gianfranco Zola says he will consider making wholesale changes for tomorrow night's game with Ipswich Town despite defeats in the last two games where he significantly rotated his Watford squad. "

http://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/sport/watfordfc/watfordfcnews/10235788.Zola_will_consider_squad_rotation_despite_previous_defeats/

[TL900]

Have a Bit of a Banzai for you Tikay, Gonzaga bulldogs to win NCAA basketball champs @ 33/1 with william Hills they are currently ranked 3rd in the nation but are 20th in the betting they are an excellent team who have only lost twice this year (once on a freak last second shot by Butler) they beat their big conference rival Saint Mary's last week away from home so confidence should be riding high price may not last long as they are 14's everywhere else. suggest £20 @33's win or E/W half odds first 2. completes early April.

so many really good teams in the NCAA this year, I don't watch enough to have an opinion on this though, gl.

[DungBeetle]

Meh - have stuck £150 on Ispwich.  Emotional insurance for Zola shuffling the pack and denting automatic promotion hopes!

[Nico29]

Been scrolling through the Championship games and see potential bets in:

Sheffield Wednesday to beat Birmingham away at 2.91

Blackburn or the draw (+0.5) at 1.92

Wednesday have had ten days rest and their form has been good. Seemingly there has been unrest in the Birmingham camp with the Zigic saga, but he has been admitted back into the squad, plus the 4-0 hammering may have deflated them a lot and put a stop to their mini comeback of sorts.

Blackburn fresh from their heroics on Saturday away against Arsenal are involved in another big tie for the Championship and a crucial one for their playoff hopes. Their form has been great and Hull have been just squeezing out wins by 1 recently, making me feel like a 1-1 may be on the cards here.

Dunno what you guys think, of course, know that I am a complete punter.

 

Heard good things about Hull and would always be worried about after the Lord Mayor's show syndrome in backing Blackburn tonight, so can't say I am a fan of that bet at odds on.

However, quite like your Sheff Weds bet.

All the noises coming out of Brum aren't good, with a number of experts I have heard in the media, shocked at quite how publicly Clark trounced Zigic over the training debacle. There can't be great morale in that camp and i'm looking to oppose them till I see something different.

Like the fact Wednesday are fresh, plus I like their striking options for the Championship with Lita and Wickham def able to cause some problems. Don't know much about Buckland but he looked a little flakey-short on confidence from the highlights of the Watford game at the weekend.

Also Wednesday's last ten away games shows 5 victories even winning 3-1 at Hull.

Def a bet for me at the 19/10 with Ladbrokes rather than 2.91 -comish, and would endorse Ant's rec, prob a £30-£40 jobber for me.

[JaffaCake]

Have a Bit of a Banzai for you Tikay, Gonzaga bulldogs to win NCAA basketball champs @ 33/1 with william Hills they are currently ranked 3rd in the nation but are 20th in the betting they are an excellent team who have only lost twice this year (once on a freak last second shot by Butler) they beat their big conference rival Saint Mary's last week away from home so confidence should be riding high price may not last long as they are 14's everywhere else. suggest £20 @33's win or E/W half odds first 2. completes early April.

so many really good teams in the NCAA this year, I don't watch enough to have an opinion on this though, gl.

Same for me really, but did see a piece on one of the NBA shows where the experts were saying the NCAA has never been so open and there are at least 20 teams that can win it this year. Having a dabble on a 33/1 shot seems to be good fun in such an open race

[redarmi]

I dont follow NCAA basketball but it is obviously on in the office and everytime I look one of the big teams seems to be getting turned over this year so on a very superficial level a team from a decent conference that has only lost a couple of times looks an okay bet.

[Marky147]

The bets:

3.25 £10 ew Imprimis Tagula @ 16/1 Betfred or Paddy

4.35 £10 win Rosie Future @ 6/1 Bet365 (This one is a bit of guess up.. Its profile mostly meets my criteria, but it could be any price from 7/2 to 10/1 tomorrow! Hence the win only privoso even though it is a pretty good ew race)

5.10 £30 ew Miami Gator @ 9/2 Bet365 or Paddy. Really like this one.

Fancy one pretty strongly in the seller too, but obv no prices on that race yet. I'm going to be out most of tomorrow (School half terms weren't designed with punters in mind!), but I'll post it if I can find a computer while I'm out.

Good luck and don't blame me if they lose!

A friend of mine gave me Imprimis online about 20 minutes after Keith posted it and we beat the price handily with it going off at 10/1. It pushed itself to the front from a wide draw, but he was of the opinion it was a non trier.

Rosie was sitting at 8/1 until just before the off, got hammered in to 3/1 2nd fave and then never got going after missing the break.

The horse that won 'Luv U Whatever' was a strange one. After opening at 10/1 this morning, it drifted through the day out to 20/1 and was gambled back in to 8/1 just before the off.

Gator just holds on for 3rd and pays out at 5/1 for a free bet.

[RickBFA]

I've said this in the championship thread but I see Wednesday as more effective away from home playing on the counter attack. I backed them early at 19/10.

Also backed Blackburn at 3/1 and Middlesboro at 14/5.

Not saying these are thread bets but they look a little too big for me in a relatively tight league.

[DungBeetle]

Pudil is sick,Hoban/Hall still out, but Ekstrand is back.

So back line for Horns should be Almuinia, Casetti, Anya, Ekrstrand, Nosworthy, Doyley.

For those waiting for team news, I would look at the midfield.   Forestieri/Geijo are only a small downgrade on Vydra/Deeney, but Abdi/Battochio/Chalobah is FAR superior to Murray/Eustace/Hogg.

The midfield is where we lost at Bristol City imo.

[vegaslover]

Not a suggestion just a discussion but Tranmere at Home look too big at 4.1 v Swindon who have just lost DiCanio

[tikay]

The bets:

3.25 £10 ew Imprimis Tagula @ 16/1 Betfred or Paddy

4.35 £10 win Rosie Future @ 6/1 Bet365 (This one is a bit of guess up.. Its profile mostly meets my criteria, but it could be any price from 7/2 to 10/1 tomorrow! Hence the win only privoso even though it is a pretty good ew race)

5.10 £30 ew Miami Gator @ 9/2 Bet365 or Paddy. Really like this one.

Fancy one pretty strongly in the seller too, but obv no prices on that race yet. I'm going to be out most of tomorrow (School half terms weren't designed with punters in mind!), but I'll post it if I can find a computer while I'm out.

Good luck and don't blame me if they lose!

A friend of mine gave me Imprimis online about 20 minutes after Keith posted it and we beat the price handily with it going off at 10/1. It pushed itself to the front from a wide draw, but he was of the opinion it was a non trier.

Rosie was sitting at 8/1 until just before the off, got hammered in to 3/1 2nd fave and then never got going after missing the break.

The horse that won 'Luv U Whatever' was a strange one. After opening at 10/1 this morning, it drifted through the day out to 20/1 and was gambled back in to 8/1 just before the off.

Gator just holds on for 3rd and pays out at 5/1 for a free bet.

Appreciate the Update Marky, thank you.

I saw the first race - Imprimis - & I agree, it did not strike me as being off.

We had the biggest bet on the last, & the place limited the damage, so not a disaster.

ACHAB.

[tikay]

Appreciate all the football hints & suggestions, but nothing seems to be jumping off the page.

My heart wants to back Arsenal @ a whopping 3/1, but my head says Bayern.

Tranmere look huge at that price, which reflects recent form, but we have no idea what the will he wont he DeCanio effect will be.

If anyone has anything which jumps off the value page, shout me up, but at the moment, we just have the Porto Corners affair. 

[BigAdz]

I'm gonna keep chipping away, and please have faith, it will all come good in the end.

Yesterday had a wager on, dare I say it, the Cheltenham Cross Country race.

I have been waiting some time for this horse to be put in this race and yesterday in The Weekender Gordon Elliot confirmed he was putting Chicago Grey in the race.

It has a tremendous Cheltenham pedigree on any ground better than good and firmer, winning twice and looking likely to win when falling, from 3 runs on that sort of ground. At his best he is pounds ahead of the best of the rest on chase form, he has the ideal racing style for the race(switched off and creep into the race), he has won the 4miler at a previous festival, so distance holds no fears, will probably have Paul Carberry on him-a master jockey for this type of animal, and best of all the race is usually run on the firmest part of the course. He has had a wind op and will have a single hurdle race before the main aim, this race.

Bet Victor went 20s last night, and I forgot to post, and its now 14s, but I firmly expect this horse to be close to favourite on the day, especially with Mr Elliots ability to pull of major touches.

Bet Victor are also non runner free bet, so even at 14s it looks great value.

£10 ew recomend.

Looking good, BigAdz. CG just had a cruisey 2m4 jog around Navan and picked up a €26k first prize at 25/1 too, not bad for a prep run! Looked well fit, was only getting going towards the finish as the others slammed on the brakes.

Hi mate.

In Barcelona this week so not seen race but read SL write up and Elliot saying the main aim is now the National, and that will be his next race.

One of these days I am gonna spot a decent horse with a decent oppo in a certain race and the trainer might actually bear my wise words in mind before they go for the wrong race.

Still, no damage as with VC,he might still go for it, and Fred passed it by anyway.


Off to try and find a bar that will show my team get walloped by the hun

[The Camel]

The bets:

3.25 £10 ew Imprimis Tagula @ 16/1 Betfred or Paddy

4.35 £10 win Rosie Future @ 6/1 Bet365 (This one is a bit of guess up.. Its profile mostly meets my criteria, but it could be any price from 7/2 to 10/1 tomorrow! Hence the win only privoso even though it is a pretty good ew race)

5.10 £30 ew Miami Gator @ 9/2 Bet365 or Paddy. Really like this one.

Fancy one pretty strongly in the seller too, but obv no prices on that race yet. I'm going to be out most of tomorrow (School half terms weren't designed with punters in mind!), but I'll post it if I can find a computer while I'm out.

Good luck and don't blame me if they lose!

A friend of mine gave me Imprimis online about 20 minutes after Keith posted it and we beat the price handily with it going off at 10/1. It pushed itself to the front from a wide draw, but he was of the opinion it was a non trier.

Rosie was sitting at 8/1 until just before the off, got hammered in to 3/1 2nd fave and then never got going after missing the break.

The horse that won 'Luv U Whatever' was a strange one. After opening at 10/1 this morning, it drifted through the day out to 20/1 and was gambled back in to 8/1 just before the off.

Gator just holds on for 3rd and pays out at 5/1 for a free bet.

I don't think Imprimis was a non trier, I just think it's useless. I will be hard pressed to find reasons to back it again.

I was very hopeful when the money poured on Rosie, but don't think it acted on the track.

Annoying I was out all day, had a couple of messages for that winner and don't have an iphone (obv).

The winner in the last was the obvious one and ticked all the right boxes, but backing Even money jollies on the all weather isn't really my thing. Thank goodness the Gator held on for third to salvage something from the wreckage.