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[horseplayer]

William Collum is an interesting scottish referee

The game between Galatasary and schalke tonight i will be watching anyway for obvious reasons, when i saw willie collum was in charge i perked up a bit more.

Here are the stats for the games involving the two sides this season in the champions league

4 5 7 2 6 4 gala

6 7 (1 sent off) 6 5 2 1 schalke

based on the above the mean cards per game in games between the two sides is 4.7 approx

Bet365 go evens over 4.5 cards tonight (were 11-10 yesterday) which i suggest a £20 bet (if fred can get on) for the purposes of this bet a yellow card is 1 and red card 2 points. The betfair market is very quiet but looks like it could settle at around 5-6 for over 4.5 there.

Now back onto the referee. William Collum is a bit of an all or nothing referee in european and international football (have ignored his scottish league stats for this) he averages 4.20 yellows per game and 0.38 red cards per game. So the line looks possibly a smidgen low based on everything so far.

If you just examine his stats in champions league games his average goes up to nearly 6 yellows per game (small sample size) he has also awarded 6 red cards in 13 champions league games.  I suggest he may just like the big occasion a little bit i will not go into his old firm history but suffice to say that backs the above up a little bit.

Unfourtantley the odds of a red card are only 3-1 tonight which can hardly be considered a bet anything above 5-1 i would have played at.

One final discovery is that he has awarded his first card very quickly in a lot of champions league games bet365 go evens first card of any kind upto and including the 30th minute this seems a fair bet suggest £30.

Personally i have bought the cards on the spreads tonight worse case scenario i see a small loss he could just go haywire though. The two teams are by no means dirty but the added factor of this being a probably tight game and being in the knockout stage all add some chances to more cards based on general stats.

Sorry for waffling

 

[tikay]

William Collum is an interesting scottish referee

The game between Galatasary and schalke tonight i will be watching anyway for obvious reasons, when i saw willie collum was in charge i perked up a bit more.

Here are the stats for the games involving the two sides this season in the champions league

4 5 7 2 6 4 gala

6 7 (1 sent off) 6 5 2 1 schalke

based on the above the mean cards per game in games between the two sides is 4.7 approx

Bet365 go evens over 4.5 cards tonight (were 11-10 yesterday) which i suggest a £20 bet (if fred can get on) for the purposes of this bet a yellow card is 1 and red card 2 points. The betfair market is very quiet but looks like it could settle at around 5-6 for over 4.5 there.

Now back onto the referee. William Collum is a bit of an all or nothing referee in european and international football (have ignored his scottish league stats for this) he averages 4.20 yellows per game and 0.38 red cards per game. So the line looks possibly a smidgen low based on everything so far.

If you just examine his stats in champions league games his average goes up to nearly 6 yellows per game (small sample size) he has also awarded 6 red cards in 13 champions league games.  I suggest he may just like the big occasion a little bit i will not go into his old firm history but suffice to say that backs the above up a little bit.

Unfourtantley the odds of a red card are only 3-1 tonight which can hardly be considered a bet anything above 5-1 i would have played at.

One final discovery is that he has awarded his first card very quickly in a lot of champions league games bet365 go evens first card of any kind upto and including the 30th minute this seems a fair bet suggest £30.

Personally i have bought the cards on the spreads tonight worse case scenario i see a small loss he could just go haywire though. The two teams are by no means dirty but the added factor of this being a probably tight game and being in the knockout stage all add some chances to more cards based on general stats.

Sorry for waffling

 

Great stuff horsey, thank you, & on this occasion, perhaps worryingly, Bet365 allowed me the full £30, so we are on.

We have £30 @ 5/6, Bet365, First Card within 30 minutes, Gala v Schalke.

ON

Card before 30:00    Galatasaray v Schalke
Time of First Card  20/02/2013  5/6  None  To Run
Stake 30.00 To Return  54.99

[LeedsRhodesy]

Morning all

i think we should have £10 on millwall to go down!  lost  1-5 to a poor Peterborough side

they have not won a game since Jan 1st   where they beat bristol at home!

5 points from the last 10 games  6 points from the drop  

40/1 on paddy power   22/1 everywhere else

[tikay]

William Collum is an interesting scottish referee

The game between Galatasary and schalke tonight i will be watching anyway for obvious reasons, when i saw willie collum was in charge i perked up a bit more.

Here are the stats for the games involving the two sides this season in the champions league

4 5 7 2 6 4 gala

6 7 (1 sent off) 6 5 2 1 schalke

based on the above the mean cards per game in games between the two sides is 4.7 approx

Bet365 go evens over 4.5 cards tonight (were 11-10 yesterday) which i suggest a £20 bet (if fred can get on) for the purposes of this bet a yellow card is 1 and red card 2 points. The betfair market is very quiet but looks like it could settle at around 5-6 for over 4.5 there.

Now back onto the referee. William Collum is a bit of an all or nothing referee in european and international football (have ignored his scottish league stats for this) he averages 4.20 yellows per game and 0.38 red cards per game. So the line looks possibly a smidgen low based on everything so far.

If you just examine his stats in champions league games his average goes up to nearly 6 yellows per game (small sample size) he has also awarded 6 red cards in 13 champions league games.  I suggest he may just like the big occasion a little bit i will not go into his old firm history but suffice to say that backs the above up a little bit.

Unfourtantley the odds of a red card are only 3-1 tonight which can hardly be considered a bet anything above 5-1 i would have played at.

One final discovery is that he has awarded his first card very quickly in a lot of champions league games bet365 go evens first card of any kind upto and including the 30th minute this seems a fair bet suggest £30.

Personally i have bought the cards on the spreads tonight worse case scenario i see a small loss he could just go haywire though. The two teams are by no means dirty but the added factor of this being a probably tight game and being in the knockout stage all add some chances to more cards based on general stats.

Sorry for waffling

 

I have now got the other bet on, but Bet365 restricted me to £10 on this one. Really weird how this Restricted thing works, seems so erratic.

We have £10 @ Evens, OVER 4.5 cards, Bet 365, Galatasaray v Schalke.

So, plenty of bookings, & Gala to win.

ON

Over 4.5 @ 1/1
£10.00 Single 20/02/2013 12:16:32 10.00 0.00
     Bet Confirmation  - EF7772239510I  - Internet   Time of bet:  20/02/2013 12:16:32  Print
  

[Doobs]

Final Corner count.......

Porto 11, Malaga 2.

Very well done humus.

but was it a good bet?

I messed about with excel and if the first half is won the bet is huge odds on to be won. 

Given the way humas reckoned the match would be played 8 porto corners to malaga's 4 seems a reasonable guesstimate.

Based on that porto were about 73% to win the first half and at worse (only 1 corner ahead) 85% to hold in the second half.

So that adds up to an 8/13 shot, so def great value imo.

I genuinely don't know. The fact that it won so easily is, of course, not necessarily relavent.

10 hours after we placed the bet, Adam "rfqqqgddnbjytfbjj" Posted that a better bet was -2 on the Handicap @ 5/6, which, on the face of it, seems correct.

Truly, I'm confused.

Anyway, well done humus, whether the logic was correct or not, it got us nicely out of it yesterday.

Be interesting to work it all out though. 90% of my off-thread stuff is on sub-markets, rather than the main "outrights". There are so many of them, there are bound to be a few mis-priced ones. Proving they are a mis-price, though, is quite beyond me.

Think 8/13 Porto winning the first half on corners was better value than the combined result.  Adding in the 2nd half corners just seems to add variance (for it to be value holding on would have to better than 1/7).  All these bets would have flown home, so no worries in the end.

Now must go check how my Huddersfield promotion bet is doing.

[tikay]

Morning all

i think we should have £10 on millwall to go down!  lost  1-5 to a poor Peterborough side

they have not won a game since Jan 1st   where they beat bristol at home!

5 points from the last 10 games  6 points from the drop 

40/1 on paddy power   22/1 everywhere else

Afternoon Rhodesy, & thanks.

Any other thoughts on this one?

PS - If I forget nearer the time, enjoy Saturday, & live the dream.

[The Camel]

Morning all

i think we should have £10 on millwall to go down!  lost  1-5 to a poor Peterborough side

they have not won a game since Jan 1st   where they beat bristol at home!

5 points from the last 10 games  6 points from the drop  

40/1 on paddy power   22/1 everywhere else

I was planning on having a good study up of relegation market in the Championship.

Looks a great betting heat with Barnsley, Posh and even Bristol City hitting almost promotion form!

[tikay]

Final Corner count.......

Porto 11, Malaga 2.

Very well done humus.

but was it a good bet?

I messed about with excel and if the first half is won the bet is huge odds on to be won. 

Given the way humas reckoned the match would be played 8 porto corners to malaga's 4 seems a reasonable guesstimate.

Based on that porto were about 73% to win the first half and at worse (only 1 corner ahead) 85% to hold in the second half.

So that adds up to an 8/13 shot, so def great value imo.

I genuinely don't know. The fact that it won so easily is, of course, not necessarily relavent.

10 hours after we placed the bet, Adam "rfqqqgddnbjytfbjj" Posted that a better bet was -2 on the Handicap @ 5/6, which, on the face of it, seems correct.

Truly, I'm confused.

Anyway, well done humus, whether the logic was correct or not, it got us nicely out of it yesterday.

Be interesting to work it all out though. 90% of my off-thread stuff is on sub-markets, rather than the main "outrights". There are so many of them, there are bound to be a few mis-priced ones. Proving they are a mis-price, though, is quite beyond me.

Think 8/13 Porto winning the first half on corners was better value than the combined result.  Adding in the 2nd half corners just seems to add variance (for it to be value holding on would have to better than 1/7).  All these bets would have flown home, so no worries in the end.

Now must go check how my Huddersfield promotion bet is doing.

We gloss quietly over such matters.......

[tikay]

Morning all

i think we should have £10 on millwall to go down!  lost  1-5 to a poor Peterborough side

they have not won a game since Jan 1st   where they beat bristol at home!

5 points from the last 10 games  6 points from the drop  

40/1 on paddy power   22/1 everywhere else

I was planning on having a good study up of relegation market in the Championship.

Looks a great betting heat with Barnsley, Posh and even Bristol City hitting almost promotion form!

FWIW, we are already on 3 teams to be relegated from the Championship, thusly.....

Birmingham @ 4.4/1 (currently 9/2)

Bolton @ 33/1 (currently 25/1)

Wolves @ 15/2 (currently 3/1)

Any of those three would do us nicely.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/relegation

[horseplayer]

Morning all

i think we should have £10 on millwall to go down!  lost  1-5 to a poor Peterborough side

they have not won a game since Jan 1st   where they beat bristol at home!

5 points from the last 10 games  6 points from the drop  

40/1 on paddy power   22/1 everywhere else

I was planning on having a good study up of relegation market in the Championship.

Looks a great betting heat with Barnsley, Posh and even Bristol City hitting almost promotion form!

FWIW, we are already on 3 teams to be relegated from the Championship, thusly.....

Birmingham @ 4.4/1 (currently 9/2)

Bolton @ 33/1 (currently 25/1)

Wolves @ 15/2 (currently 3/1)

Any of those three would do us nicely.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/relegation

i cant remember who or if it was on the other thread but it seems only six weeks ago that it was suggested they were a good bet for the playoffs

that is the championship i guess

losing wood was massive henderson less so but he was another option. There squad looks way short of goals but my feeling is they will find a way under a stable management team.

[LeedsRhodesy]

           points in last 5 games     points atm

14th millwall         0                       41
15th blackpool      6                       40
16th  bolton        6                        39
17th birmingham   8                       39
18th Ipswich         4                       38
19th  sheff wed    9                       37
20th barnsley        13                     37
21st hudds          4                        37
---------------------------------------------------
22nd wolves       2                      35
23rd  peterbr      8                      33
24th  bristol        6                      35

[tikay]

Morning all

i think we should have £10 on millwall to go down!  lost  1-5 to a poor Peterborough side

they have not won a game since Jan 1st   where they beat bristol at home!

5 points from the last 10 games  6 points from the drop  

40/1 on paddy power   22/1 everywhere else

I was planning on having a good study up of relegation market in the Championship.

Looks a great betting heat with Barnsley, Posh and even Bristol City hitting almost promotion form!

FWIW, we are already on 3 teams to be relegated from the Championship, thusly.....

Birmingham @ 4.4/1 (currently 9/2)

Bolton @ 33/1 (currently 25/1)

Wolves @ 15/2 (currently 3/1)

Any of those three would do us nicely.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/relegation

i cant remember who or if it was on the other thread but it seems only six weeks ago that it was suggested they were a good bet for the playoffsthat is the championship i guess

losing wood was massive henderson less so but he was another option. There squad looks way short of goals but my feeling is they will find a way under a stable management team.

I don't recall exactly who else said what, but on November 24th, Camel Posted this.....


Millwall's run cannot go unnoticed either, that is 9 games unbeaten i believe and they are 6th.

[tikay]

          points in last 5 games     points atm

14th millwall         0                       41
15th blackpool      6                       40
16th  bolton        6                        39
17th birmingham   8                       39
18th Ipswich         4                       38
19th  sheff wed    9                       37
20th barnsley        13                     37
21st hudds          4                        37
---------------------------------------------------
22nd wolves       2                      35
23rd  peterbr      8                      33
24th  bristol        6                      35

Wow @ Barnsley, 13 points from 15! The changed Management does not seem to have done any harm....

Really liking our Wolves bet, too (Aaron), we have 15/2.

[Snowball]

I know the bets have already been placed but I would avoid nearly any bet on a match involving Collum as the Man in the middle.Possibly the worst Ref to come out of Scotland and thats quite an achievement.
He shouldn't be allowed to Ref on public parks never mind at this level but he has friends in hogh places.

[tikay]

I know the bets have already been placed but I would avoid nearly any bet on a match inlving Collum as the Man in the middle.Possibly the Ref to come out of Scotland and thats quite an achievement.
He should be allowed to Ref on public parks never mind at this level but he has friends in hogh places.

Maybe that was part of the whole idea?!