Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Nothing makes a fool of us like punting, and what was a good bet when placed does not always work out quite so good.

We have quite a little basket of forward football bets, some of which look pretty good. Not all though.

You may look at a few of these & muse “what were you thinking?”, but they were all reasonable shouts at the time.

If I could take the loss now & remove some of these from the Spready, I would, but that’s just not right, the numbers must reflect the actuality at all times, or MereAuditor will be on my case, & quite right too. 

League Two Top Scorer, Danny Kedwall, £25 @ 9/1.

He has 10, whilst Port Vale’s Pope has 25.

Huddersfield to be Promoted, £20 @ 10/1.

Huddersfield are just 2 spots off the relegation spots.

Walsall to be Relegated, £60 @ 5/1.

A near impossibility now, they are just below the play off positions. The Promotion play-offs, that is.

Bradford to win League Two, £25 EW @ 12/1.

20 points adrift, though two games in hand. They got a bit distracted  by other matters.

York City Top Seven Finish, £30 @ 14/1.

17th in the League Table, & 13 points adrift of 7th spot.

Birmingham to be Relegated, £20 @ 5.4.

Still possible, but they are 7 points above the bottom three.

Bolton to be Relegated, £10 @ 15/2

They are level with Birmingham.

So that is £215. They look pretty bad now, but not when we got on. Just shows how things can change.

We have some good ones, too….

[tikay]

Now the other side of the coin.

Luis Suarez to score 20 or more Premiership goals, £40 @ 9/2.

Start the thingie, park the bus, or whatever it is.

QPR to be Relegated, £50 @ 8/5.

Ditto

Doncaster Rovers to win League One, £20 @ 12/1.

Currently 8/1 shots, & in with a chance.

Napoli to win Serie A, £20 @ 5/1

Currently a 3/1 shot.

Wolves to be Relegated, £10 @ 15/2

Now 6/4 to head south.

So, some make us look daft, others, not so much. We only need to get the Suarez & QPR bets home & we would, on balance, be profitable, & freerolling, on our Season bets.

[The Camel]

Can we stop funking QUITE so passionately for Queens Park Rangers to be relegated please.

I thank you.

[tikay]

Don't forget, as I posted at the time of your misclick, Kuchar was the pick of the bettingon.com gold expert....that's a 40/1 to add to his 75/1 and 90/1 winners in recent weeks. Pretty impressive, I'll post u his picks for the next few weeks, as you've said before gold betting feels like u have to throw a few darts to hit one as the prices are so big, might be worth doing so

Well done Jeff, please feel free to keep mentioning these.

As I noted before the Accenture, with Golf, I'm happy to throw a few darts each week, we don't need many to get home to show an overall profit over a season, & they are tremendous fun to rail.

We may need to be brave unless we get lucky early, but an investment of £50 to £100 each week, across 3 or 4 picks, &/or sub-markets, would not be unreasonable, IF we can find the value.

[The Camel]

This by election betting is really strange.

Yesterday a poll comes out showing Tories in front and revelations that the Liberal leader did little to stop a man in position of power to continue the sexual harassment of women in his party.

Yet the lib dem price barely moves an inch.

Looks like a bent coup to me.

[The Camel]

Ha, in the time it took me to compose that rant the Lib Dems moved from 1.47 to 1.53.

The point remains pretty valid however.

[TightEnd]

I have stopped wondering about it

The central thesis is that the Lib Dems are so strong on the ground that the local activism will see them through


In addition, the Populus Poll at the weekend asked a question of voters

"What do you think of LD leader Nick Clegg"

13% of all respondents had never heard of him!

So for all the Huhne stuff, and now the Rennard stuff, its probably not being spotted by a lot of the voters, who just don't care


UKIP seen by everyone to be winning big share versus all three major parties.


Still, the Tory bets must stand a chance.

[AndrewT]

They've had 8,500 postal votes in already - 11% of the votes have already been cast.

[AndrewT]

One market that interests me is the winning majority being under 1000 at 2/1 with Ladbrokes. Turnout at last election was 53k, so under 1000 is a win of about 2%. UKIP winning a chunk of votes will narrow the gap between the others. We've had polls putting both CON and LD in front in the past few days.

My worry is that it's a bit of an obvious bet.

[tikay]

One market that interests me is the winning majority being under 1000 at 2/1 with Ladbrokes. Turnout at last election was 53k, so under 1000 is a win of about 2%. UKIP winning a chunk of votes will narrow the gap between the others. We've had polls putting both CON and LD in front in the past few days.

My worry is that it's a bit of an obvious bet.

Ladbrokes go......

1-1,000 - 2/1

1,001 - 2,000 - 3/1

2,001 to 3,000 - 4/1

Over 3,000 - 2/1

[BigAdz]

Riddle of the Thai golfing sisters solved.

Just found a post in the golfing section of betfair forum(boooooooo!) almost verbatim the description Ralph gave.

[Tal]

Unbelievable, Jeff!

[tikay]

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[AlunB]

KUUUUUUCCCHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

[The Camel]

Peterborough look a bit big at 4/1 tomorrow.

Any thoughts from the Onion Man?