Tips for Tikay

[simonnatur]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/regular-season-mvp

Suggesting a max bet on Lebron James to be regular season MVP 7/4 with Bwin

Guy is absolutely killing it and it looks pretty clear just from looking at the odds that Bwin have made a mistake in the odds.

MVP looks like its basically between Lebron and Kevin Durant, the edge we have is that Miami are almost dead certs to win their conference whereas OKC aren't. This will mean that LBJ is alot more likely to be awarded the MVP award.

Lebron is averaging 27points 7assists and 8 rebounds per game and is basically carrying Miami single handedly.

Durant is averaging 29points 4.5assists and 7.5 rebounds per game but has a quality player like Westbrook playing amazing aswell so he isn't carrying his team as much as Lebron is.

Suggest maximum Lebron James Regular Season MVP 7/4 Bwin

Thanks Tom.

I take that as a Tom Max, not a Fred Max, & we have gone for £40. BWin seem to have the Durant & LeBron prices back to front.

When does the season finish, & when will the MVP be selected?

£40 @ 7/4, BWin, James LeBron, MVP.

ON

Type of bet
Bet slip ID
Date
Total stake
Possible payout
Single bet
1STHN7BFYU
2/12/2013 9:39 AM
40.00 GBP
110.00 GBP
Date   Event  Bet  Pick  Result  Odds 
6/1/2013 12:00:00 AM    NBA NBA MVP 2012-2013  Outright winner  James  ?  7/4 

Just thought i'ld flag this open bet as Lebron is now very short on betfair - and wondered if Tom or anyone else would like to comment on the merits of a partial greening - maybe to cover our stake and give us a freeroll ?

Obviously a great bet - just wondered what those in the know would consider the risks to be ?  injury etc ?

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/basketball/market?id=1.107273154&exp=e

[BigAdz]

Just read this on the Betfair forum:

 "This morning at 9.00am when they went 3/1 Hurricane Fly - a NON PTL ( permission to Lay ) customer could get a Max of £50 @3/1 and the option of up to a further £500 @9/4 ; A PTL customer ( all bets referred prior to acceptance ) could get a MAX of £20 @3/1 with the option of a further £200 @9/4 . THis all changed at 11.00am when the MAX stake was dropped to £20 @3/1 for Non PTL and just £10 for PTL customers. I understand that the odds went 2/1 for phone and Net customers at 11.00am.

Up until 11.00am the odds on Betfair were around 3.70 - this has now shortened in to around 3.45 ; so even if the Arbing dole'ite plebs managed to get their 50 quid on they would probably only make enough to buy themselves a pouch of tobacco to make their roll up cigs should the horse win.

I have spoken to a number of the staff today and they have embarassingly had to turn plenty of customers away - as they apparently get a disciplinary warning if caught taking more than one fifty from each customer."

 Just wondered what people's views were. Is this good for Hills? I could understand if it gets people to open accounts, but accross all platforms? Is getting people in the shops a good thing because of the FOBTs? Is £50 a decent bet? Would it be better to offer it to the average stake of the punters last three bets? Should they reduce shop punters to £10 and PTL players on the phone to £10 and then lay the punters they want a bigger bet? Are trecreational punters even looking at having an ante-post bet today? Would they be better waiting until next Monday and laying a decent bet?

 Just interested.

TBH Neil, I'm with you. I am never really sure what they achieve. 5 of my mates I told about this got on for £50 a piece, but none will use Hills any more or less as a result, and I would be pretty sure this happens across the board. No one will change their regular shop/telephone account. The only real chance of long term success are by becoming bookies again and laying decent bets to those with decent money, not just Mr Wong the local Take Away owner

[The Camel]

Just read this on the Betfair forum:

 "This morning at 9.00am when they went 3/1 Hurricane Fly - a NON PTL ( permission to Lay ) customer could get a Max of £50 @3/1 and the option of up to a further £500 @9/4 ; A PTL customer ( all bets referred prior to acceptance ) could get a MAX of £20 @3/1 with the option of a further £200 @9/4 . THis all changed at 11.00am when the MAX stake was dropped to £20 @3/1 for Non PTL and just £10 for PTL customers. I understand that the odds went 2/1 for phone and Net customers at 11.00am.

Up until 11.00am the odds on Betfair were around 3.70 - this has now shortened in to around 3.45 ; so even if the Arbing dole'ite plebs managed to get their 50 quid on they would probably only make enough to buy themselves a pouch of tobacco to make their roll up cigs should the horse win.

I have spoken to a number of the staff today and they have embarassingly had to turn plenty of customers away - as they apparently get a disciplinary warning if caught taking more than one fifty from each customer."

 Just wondered what people's views were. Is this good for Hills? I could understand if it gets people to open accounts, but accross all platforms? Is getting people in the shops a good thing because of the FOBTs? Is £50 a decent bet? Would it be better to offer it to the average stake of the punters last three bets? Should they reduce shop punters to £10 and PTL players on the phone to £10 and then lay the punters they want a bigger bet? Are trecreational punters even looking at having an ante-post bet today? Would they be better waiting until next Monday and laying a decent bet?

 Just interested.

I could hardly be called Hills biggest fan.

But I think this is fine.

£50 is a decent aount to lay and if you live in a big town, you'll get round plenty of shops and can get as uch as you'd realistically need as long as you're not an arber.

And why should Hills help arbers anyway?

[action man]

so shrewd by hills offering the price it should be and making it sound like a sick offer

[the sicilian]

Man U game tmmr

Suggest over 12 corners....

Everything to play for both teams going for it both like to get it out wide where the wingers try to get to the byline and blocking defenders intercept for it to go behind

Had this twice in the first leg 12 by half time and had a second bet for the 2nd half. Ended up with 20 corners

Had a lump myself at 2.1

Suggest £ 50 ffor Fred

[The Camel]

Man U game tmmr

Suggest over 12 corners....

Everything to play for both teams going for it both like to get it out wide where the wingers try to get to the byline and blocking defenders intercept for it to go behind

Had this twice in the first leg 12 by half time and had a second bet for the 2nd half. Ended up with 20 corners

Had a lump myself at 2.1

Suggest £ 50 ffor Fred

Hmmm

Do we really think both teams will "go for it"?

One goal could be enough for either team to qualify and they will both be terrified to concede the first goal.

I would wait and the teams that are picked before punting on this.

But I could quite envisage a very tight, cagey first half and Madrid not going gung ho until the last 30 minutes.

[Bad Beat]

 I agree that £50 is more than a fair bet to offer people. I'm not the biggest fan of Hills but if I ran the business I wouldn't offer the arbers a carrot at 3/1.

 I just hate to see them giving all this money away to people who have zero intention of taking a risk on the bet while they turn away quite reasonable business all day long. It just makes no sense to me. I wonder if they really get enough new accounts, dormants coming back and general activity from people making the effort to visit shops. All I hear about is people going in six or more shops and amking things much harder for hard working pros who just want a bet.

[Bad Beat]

 Tomorrow is 3/1 Dynaste for the RSA by the way.

[redarmi]

Yeah I like it a great deal from Hills.  I am not sufficiently up on what acquisition and retention costs are for customers these days but i remember when I was a bit more up to date and the cost per acquisition was something in the region of $200.  Here the cost per acquisition at £50 a bet (and of course a lot of punters won't have that much on) depends on the price the horse should be.  If we assume the betfair price is right at 3.60 then they are giving up £5.55 in equity for every £50 bet but of course as Trigg alludes to they might be offering the correct price or even worse (I would imagine their odds compilers were consulted and think so) and the chances that Hurrican Fly is a 2/1 shot or less are pretty remote so effectively they get the publicity and acquisition and retention benefits and all of the goodwill that goes with that for between £0 and about £7 per limit bet.  Seems like pretty amazing marketing bang for buck to me.

[the sicilian]

Man U game tmmr

Suggest over 12 corners....

Everything to play for both teams going for it both like to get it out wide where the wingers try to get to the byline and blocking defenders intercept for it to go behind

Had this twice in the first leg 12 by half time and had a second bet for the 2nd half. Ended up with 20 corners

Had a lump myself at 2.1


Suggest £ 50 ffor Fred

Hmmm

Do we really think both teams will "go for it"?

One goal could be enough for either team to qualify and they will both be terrified to concede the first goal.

I would wait and the teams that are picked before punting on this.

But I could quite envisage a very tight, cagey first half and Madrid not going gung ho until the last 30 minutes.

Reasonable assumption but same could have been said about the first leg... But 12 by half time... Man U more direct... Madrid play it about in the middle then look to go out wide usually Ronaldo or the right fullback

[The Camel]

I remember a great story (Neil probably told me it actually)

City Index really fancied Austrailia to beat New Zealand in some rubgy match, so put up an arb price on supremecy with Sporting.

When the punters rang up to have a bet, they would only lay them if they could name 3 players from each team.

Thus the filfthjy arbers who didn't know a thing got no bets, while the true punter got on.

Marvellous.

[BigAdz]

Tomorrow is 3/1 Dynaste for the RSA by the way.

FWIW, Pipe Junior is keen to take the Jewson/Senior the RSA

[The Camel]

Man U game tmmr

Suggest over 12 corners....

Everything to play for both teams going for it both like to get it out wide where the wingers try to get to the byline and blocking defenders intercept for it to go behind

Had this twice in the first leg 12 by half time and had a second bet for the 2nd half. Ended up with 20 corners

Had a lump myself at 2.1


Suggest £ 50 ffor Fred

Hmmm

Do we really think both teams will "go for it"?

One goal could be enough for either team to qualify and they will both be terrified to concede the first goal.

I would wait and the teams that are picked before punting on this.

But I could quite envisage a very tight, cagey first half and Madrid not going gung ho until the last 30 minutes.

Reasonable assumption but same could have been said about the first leg... But 12 by half time... Man U more direct... Madrid play it about in the middle then look to go out wide usually Ronaldo or the right fullback

The price won't change much if at all when the teams are announced.

See if Old Red Nose picks his wide players or plays it cautious to start with a packed midfield.

[the sicilian]

Forgot to say bet 365 have the free bet up to 50 quid offer again.. So could be a free bet to another suggestion

[AndrewT]

One other thing with the Hills offer (on the online side) is it ensures that a load of people who may not have used their account for ages now remember what their password was and have updated their credit card details to deposit for the Fly offer.

They can now snap deposit next week.