Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I placed a bet last night on the Darts, & promised to Post the Betslip later.

For the record only.....


Selection 1 Michael van Gerwen @ 5/6 To Win - Lose
Market 180s Match Bet 
Event Premier League
Adrian Lewis v Michael van Gerwen (7-4)
20:41 07/03/2013

Bet Type Single
Unit Stake £30.00
Number of Units x1
Stake £30.00
Time and Date Placed 20:07 07/03/2013
Receipt Number O/0891659/0000192

[tikay]

Cheltenham Update


Gold Cup

Long Run, £25 @ 7/1, Doobs

Long Run, £10 @ 13/2 (BetFred OFFER).Doobs

Long Run, £10 EW @ 10/1 (Wm Hill Offer).  Fred

Captain Chris, £10 EW @ 25/1. Big Adz

Champion Hurdle

Hurricane Fly, £30 @ 3/1. Simon Galloway


Supreme Novices Hurdle

Jezki, £20 @ 8/1. Karabiner

Jezki, £20 @ 7/1 (Wm Hill Offer). Fred.

My Tent or Yours, £50 @ 6/4, FRED. £50 Free Bet if beaten.


Ryanair

Albertas Run, £10 EW @ 25/1, Non-Runner Free Bet. Ed Gascoigne.

Cue Card, £30 @ 5/1, FRED.

Triumph Hurdle

Irish Saint, £10 EW @ 14/1, Non-Runner No Bet. Ed Gascoigne.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Mail de Bievre £10 EW @ 16/1, Karabiner

Sprinter Sacre, £20 @ Evens, FRED


Albert Bartlett Hurdle

Utopia des Bordes £10 EW @ 10/1. Chompy

Neptune

Pont Alexandre, £30 @ 15/8, FRED (backed to trade later)

Pont Alexandre, £25 @ 2.86, FRED (backed to trade later)

Pont Alexandre, £25 @ 2.88, FRED (backed to trade later)

World Hurdle

Pont Alexandre, £15 @ 6/1, FRED


£2 Lucky 15 Big Adz

Rock on Ruby @ 10/1

Sir Des Champs @ 7/1

Boston Bob @ 10/1

Champion Court @ 10/1

Losses to date

Dynaste, £10

Colour Squadron, £5 Win

Colour Squadron, £5 place


Total Invested so far = £450

Losses so far = £20

[BigAdz]

Ok, I'm open to dogs load of abuse, but I think that AP for Top Jockey at the festival is too big at 15/2

Just going through the races with the paper favourites at this point in time and I have Ruby on most Favs, followed by AP, then possible T Scu before Barry G.

Yes some are very subjective, and Barry looks to have three or four certainties, but lets look a bit deeper.

Beyond the Championship races, most of Barry's rides all look like they have very little up their sleeve, most have won a couple already this season, and have few secrets from the handicapper by now, and some of the borderline stuff, Oscar Whisky, Captain Conan, Grandouet, Hadrians Approach, are real opinion splitters.

Ruby has the strongest book on paper at the moment, to my eyes, no doubt, but again apart from a couple of Nichols hotpots(which i can still see getting beat) his handicap book is quite light.

Onto McCoy, and after waiting until Day 4 for his first winner last year, I expect him to be off and running Day 1 Race 1 with My Tent. Confidence sky high.

With a good book of rides and JP buying everything that moves at the moment, Cheltenham winners are obviously the objective, and with about 10 JP horses in every handicap, he is very strong across the board. (he is also gonna ride a couple for Roger )

I would have thought once his full book is known he is more likely a 4/9/2 chance so at 15/2 with BlueS, I recommend a £20 week long sweat.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

With Mr Camel retiring as a tipster maybe you 2 could swap roles. He could do the admin etc and you could play the part of betting expert and elder, guiding the young whippersnappers into how to turn a profit at this betting lark. It would seem as though " mis-clicking " is your modus operandi to turn a profit.

Am looking for the best rugby league bet for tonight and have narrowed it down to 3 so time for some cake, coffee and more thinkage.

How did the watch strap purchase go ?

[BigAdz]

PS Tikay

Hands Up the Captain Chris bet in Gold Cup is down to I.

[tikay]

I think this might be the last hurrah for an anti Liverpool bet as they seem to be improving but this weekend they are a general 9/10 to beat Tottenham.  To my mind Tottenham are probably the second best team in the country at the moment.  I realise that may be overstating the case but I fail to see how they are not a top four side and Liverpool at absolute best are the fourth best side in the country and I am still not convinced of that.  Yet at this price they are saying on a neutral ground Liverpool are a better side.  It makes no sense to me at all.  My prices were 7/5 Liverpool, 2/1 Spurs and 11/4 Draw.  I think a decent bet is in order.  £100?? half Kelly tells me £158 so being a bit on the conservative side with £100 but I guess I have to factor in the fact Spurs played tonight etc but they aren't going to be worrying about the game at the san Siro now so that has to be a positive.

Thanks Stu.

Ooh, Kelly Criterion itt.

If that one gets home, we could pay for most of our Cheltenham liabilities in one foul swoop.....if it goes south, well maybe our salvation will be at Prestbury Park.

Off we go.

We have £100 @ 3/1, BetFred, Spurs to beat Liverpool on Sunday.

ON

Bet placed, its reference is99/101
Bet ref: 99/101 £100.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
Liverpool v Tottenham
Match Betting
 Tottenham 3/1 
Total stake £ 100.00
Estimated return £ 400.00

Full stake £ 100.00
Full estimated return £ 400.00

[tikay]

PS Tikay

Hands Up the Captain Chris bet in Gold Cup is down to I.

Ahh, apologies, will Edit now. You must be named & shamed.

[tikay]

Man City v Barnsley.

It is of course pretty likely Man City will win & have nothing left to win these days, so will go into this game with all guns blazing, like previous FA Cup games.

previous FA CUP games:

Waford H (Win 3-0)

Stoke A (Win 1-0)

Leeds H (win 4-0)

They have been pretty good at home to the lower league opposition and face a much 'easier' task against Barnsley.

Barnsley also been letting in quite a few goals of late, played midweek too.

So suggest a scorecasts here.

Man City to win 4-0 (9/1, BetVictor)

Man City to win 5-0 (19/1 with a firm called Betway)

Recc £5 on each.

Thanks Aaron.

I know it is only a tenner, but do we have any logic behind those numbers?

We would be speculating £10 to return, at most, a £90 profit.

I don't know how to do the maths, or even math, but it just feels tight to me.

EDIT - math amendeds.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

With Mr Camel retiring as a tipster maybe you 2 could swap roles. He could do the admin etc and you could play the part of betting expert and elder, guiding the young whippersnappers into how to turn a profit at this betting lark. It would seem as though " mis-clicking " is your modus operandi to turn a profit.

Am looking for the best rugby league bet for tonight and have narrowed it down to 3 so time for some cake, coffee and more thinkage.

How did the watch strap purchase go ?

Misclicks by me? Guilty. I plead huge profits in mitigation. KOOOOOOCH.

Me an Elder? I'm not nearly old enough to be described as Elder. Try Karabiner.

Watch-Strap. Ha, you are not going to let me forget. I'll respond on my Diary, later.

Enjoy the Cake, Coffee & thinkage, look forward to some Friday evening RL hector specials.

[hector62]

I think you had better have another look at the " math " Mr T.

As an aside I did one of these bets on City in the last round against Leeds, 3-0 and 4-0, and it came in.

[Marky147]

Pont Alexandre chat from about 30secs in:



As already stated, I'd be surprised if it doesn't shorten

You know when your kids get to 18 and they go down the old box you put the money away for them. My kids are gonna get f**k all if this gets beat, they'll just have ante-post vouchers with Pont Alexandre 2013 sorry on it...

[bobby1]

Neil abs nailed it if you are concerned about you Chelters stuff Tony, no probs with trimming the stakes if you feel its the best thing to do. Prob best to put the lays Neil suggested in str8 away tho and give yourself a better chance of catching the market swaying over the next few days.

The one that it might pay to be a little cute with is oscar whiskey, there have been a few rumours that all is not well with RDS in that race, should that be the case and it doesnt make it then the top end of the market will get shorter. I dont fancy OW either but you might end up losing a few ticks on your lay by waiting to see if RDS is ok but might be able to lay at a point lower if it is out.

[DungBeetle]

The F1 season is upon us next week, and I'm surprised to see Rosberg out at 16-1 to grab pole in Australia.  Obviously it's an outside shot but the Mercedes has been showing good pace in testing, and last season they were much better at single laps than race distance so I'm having a small wager on this.

[tikay]

I think you had better have another look at the " math " Mr T.

As an aside I did one of these bets on City in the last round against Leeds, 3-0 and 4-0, and it came in.

Bugger!

I was looking at the scores, not the odds.

I blame Aaron. Everyone else does.

Even so, I still need to understand how we know if those odds are anything like right.

Presumably, there is a goals expectation linked to the Outright Odds. Everton are, generally, 2/5.

[redsimon]

Any thoughts on Wolves to beat Forest tomorow being worth a small bet (£10?).

Forest are on a long unbeaten run for them of 5 games, four wins on the bounce, Wolves have won one of last ten so looks a home banker?

But, Forest are short of strikers and really struggled to beat a 9 man Ipswich side midweek and Wolves finally won at Millwall on Tuesday and performed reasonably well to draw at home vs Watford in a game I watched on SS the other Friday.

Fred has Wolves to be relegated as a long term bet but I think 11/4 on Corals DNB is worth a tenner vs Forest. (To win is 4/1 with Billy Hill I understand).

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/nottingham-forest-v-wolverhampton/draw-no-bet


First tip I've recommended on Fred, stands back ready for flames