Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

A little bit of money has gone on the chess market for next Friday's Candidates Tournament on betfair.

Carlsen still 1.67
Kramnik 6.6 and drifting, seemingly
Aronian 6.8

Radjabov is a comfy fourth favourite at 16/1, but I really have never seen him perform against this sort of field to the level required to win a double round robin of this magnitude.

Almost any price you like the rest (someone has optimistically asked for 290 on Gelfand, if you please)

A week to go. Kramnik price is beginning to draw my attention tbh. One of those 'Not betting because I think he will win, but because I think his price is too good' type of bets. If it touches 6/1, I'll be investing.

Do keep us informed on this, Tal.

We only had one Chess bet, which won easily, but it was tremendous fun, especially as you were able to give us running Updates.

I'm not urging you to recommend a bet, but if you sense some value, we might just have a good funk at low cost.

The smart money is with Carlsen. In PHA-speak, he is just owning chess right now. The longer the tournament, the more like a deepstack cash game it becomes, where single odd results have less significance. This will be a double round robin, so everyone plays everyone else with white and black. It really should be the best man winning. There will be lots of draws and it will probably take a spark from one of the top 3 in the market to set it all off.

We have a week to make a decision and I dare say there could possibly be a daily market on games (if so, we'll have to factor in the chunky over round but I have a fair bit of data from previous games and I'm reasonably up to speed on styles/openings/individual match-ups, so all is not lost if someone from the land of Odds-Settington fancies taking me and Fred on).

In 7 days, I might just say "let's have £60 for £40 on Magnus Carlsen" but we have a week (almost a whole Cheltenham) to decide.

[tikay]

In the Proper Cricket, NZ have moved on to 203/1.

The only wicket to go fell to Mr J Anderson, though he is being knocked about at present.

Bad start for England, but both our bets are OK so far.

[Tal]

A little bit of money has gone on the chess market for next Friday's Candidates Tournament on betfair.

Carlsen still 1.67
Kramnik 6.6 and drifting, seemingly
Aronian 6.8

Radjabov is a comfy fourth favourite at 16/1, but I really have never seen him perform against this sort of field to the level required to win a double round robin of this magnitude.

Almost any price you like the rest (someone has optimistically asked for 290 on Gelfand, if you please)

A week to go. Kramnik price is beginning to draw my attention tbh. One of those 'Not betting because I think he will win, but because I think his price is too good' type of bets. If it touches 6/1, I'll be investing.

If you want 6/1, just back and then change the price to 7.0.  That way if he ever goes 7 you will get it.

Didn't you say Carlson looks like he could be value at 1.67 and Kramnik is value at 7.  I assume that means that Aronian must be a terrible price at 6.8, so we should be looking to lay?

I think I agree with all of that. My only hesitation is I understand this stuff just enough to do so, rather than to be actively advocating it, if that makes sense.

As I see it, Aronian is a bit of a thorn for an odds compiler. He is World Number 3 (by the very narrowest of margins and has been number 2 for most of the last 12 months) but he is a little erratic against the elite and his daredevil playing style means he can get picked off against his closest rivals. His strength is picking up wins against the rabbits and there aren't many of those in this comp.

But he's the second most talented player in the field and basically the joint second highest rated and you have to set a price to reflect that.

I really don't rate his chances of winning this tournament right now. He has done nothing in the past six months to suggest to me he can play well enough for long enough against this concentration of quality of opposition to win.

Kramnik has CD next to his name and underlined. He's also found some form of late and has got back to number 2. Age isn't a factor, his back trouble (which was a real problem a few years ago) seems to be under control and he's grinding out wins again.

For me, if there were a head to head market on who finishes higher out of Aronian and Kramnik and they were 5/6 the pair, I'd be recommending a bet on Kramnik very strongly.

Two players in the field have the proven ability to grind out wins from seemingly drawn games time after time against the very best players. That is where I think this tournament will be won and I'm sure it is where both Carlsen and Kramnik hope it will be won

Back to your question:

I suppose I am saying laying Aronian is ok but is there any sport in laying 130/20? Do we have more fun with £10 on Kramnik as a saver and £60 on Carlsen?

The more I think about it, the more I think I'm saying all three prices are wrong because of Aronian's position. So either route is taking value.

I feel uncomfortable (massive ice cream alert) laying 6/1 shots and betting sizeably on 5/8 shots.

But then I did today on my sky+ see one Neil Channing offering 20/1 on Sam Razavi correctly guessing a specific card on the river. Maybe we have to get value wherever we can find it. Maybe there's always a mug out there.

[Bad Beat]

 So apart from Michal Hazanavicus, Sunderland, Swansea, Swansea (again), Fulham, Man City, Man City (again), Astrology, Liverpool/Arsenal total goals, Brighton, The San Francisco 49ers, Bitaphon, Nazreef (each-way) and Tottenham...


...What did The Camel ever do for us?

[Tal]

Unibet has a market up:

https://touch.unibet.com/client-start/sportsbook#event/1001509769

Carlsen 1.65
Kramnik 9/2
Aronian 5/1

Interestingly shaving a point off Kramnik and Aronian against betfair.

Marathonbet (our Russian friend), offers a whopping 8.7 on Kramnik:

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/

That site is already offering an individual games market (it seems to offer a few chess markets, as it happens).

[Tal]

So apart from Michal Hazanavicus, Sunderland, Swansea, Swansea (again), Fulham, Man City, Man City (again), Astrology, Liverpool/Arsenal total goals, Brighton, The San Francisco 49ers, Bitaphon, Nazreef (each-way) and Tottenham...


...What did The Camel ever do for us?

Astrology? That had better be the horse...

I have visions of kids in hoodies playing open face chinese while the wiser heads do their brains with tarot cards...

[BigAdz]

A week before you need to make a decision on your chess bet you say Tal?

Thank the Lord even more for Cheltenham next week........

[aaron1867]

Man City v Barnsley.

It is of course pretty likely Man City will win & have nothing left to win these days, so will go into this game with all guns blazing, like previous FA Cup games.

previous FA CUP games:

Waford H (Win 3-0)

Stoke A (Win 1-0)

Leeds H (win 4-0)

They have been pretty good at home to the lower league opposition and face a much 'easier' task against Barnsley.

Barnsley also been letting in quite a few goals of late, played midweek too.

So suggest a scorecasts here.

Man City to win 4-0 (9/1, BetVictor)

Man City to win 5-0 (19/1 with a firm called Betway)

Recc £5 on each.

[redarmi]

I think this might be the last hurrah for an anti Liverpool bet as they seem to be improving but this weekend they are a general 9/10 to beat Tottenham.  To my mind Tottenham are probably the second best team in the country at the moment.  I realise that may be overstating the case but I fail to see how they are not a top four side and Liverpool at absolute best are the fourth best side in the country and I am still not convinced of that.  Yet at this price they are saying on a neutral ground Liverpool are a better side.  It makes no sense to me at all.  My prices were 7/5 Liverpool, 2/1 Spurs and 11/4 Draw.  I think a decent bet is in order.  £100?? half Kelly tells me £158 so being a bit on the conservative side with £100 but I guess I have to factor in the fact Spurs played tonight etc but they aren't going to be worrying about the game at the san Siro now so that has to be a positive.

[redarmi]

Should have added a price especially after my post the other day!!!!!  I have calculated it on the basis of 3-1 Spurs but that ca be beaten.  4.16 with Pinnacle seems best given we cant get on with 365.

[Ant040689]

Crystal Palace to win the league at 25/1 with Stan James.

We are 7 points behind Cardiff and they have a game in hand. Watford are 5 points behind but they are best priced at 7.5. Hull are 6 points behind and are best priced at 12. Does being only 2 points behind Watford justify the difference in price for the title?

Think there generally is a discrepancy with the odds here, as aside from Stan James, the best you can get on Palace is 21 but is generally at around the 19 mark.

What the interesting thing here is, is that we are odds on to beat Leeds at home on Saturday and Cardiff face Leicester at home and with their current form could easily drop points there. So as early as Saturday night the best price could be about 15's for us, so I think there is value here. Cardiff could be on say 72 points after a draw and Palace on 67 after a win, with us still needing to play 9 games.

Add in the fact that in the last 6 games, Cardiff have looked shaky, and with the three teams behind them all doing well, they are feeling the pressure, despite their game in hand and points advantage. One of their players admitted they were lucky to draw against Derby in their last game and they were at home to them. Cardiff are known to have a terrible patch to make them drop down the league quickly, and this season they are yet to have it, and with the fans and players alike thinking the hoodoo may be returning, that adds even more pressure. Add on top that the chairman have been upsetting the fans recently too.

Would say at the moment, Palace are the toughest team in the league to play at home and I am quietly confident we could get 5 wins there (Leeds are our bogey team though I must say!), and then you really can't be sure how well we will do away, it is only 5 games and there is the shot we get 3 wins in these and if that is the case the title is probably ours.

Holloway too, after the Hull game, was hinting heavily that we could win the league, saying that Cardiff hadn't the league won and was just dropping short of saying we could do it. Would imagine he is telling the players this and they may well be shaping up into beast mode to do the unthinkable. Our form has been very good of late too, with Johnny Williams, Bolasie, Zaha, Phillips all playing great (had to basically stop short of saying the whole team!).
 
I wouldn't say Palace winning the league is likely, but I think I would be right in saying there is definite value in placing a bet at 25/1 here. I took 54/1 with Betfair about three games ago I think and that is long gone.

Well worth a fiver I would say.

[Tal]

A week before you need to make a decision on your chess bet you say Tal?

Thank the Lord even more for Cheltenham next week........

[tikay]

Unibet has a market up:

https://touch.unibet.com/client-start/sportsbook#event/1001509769

Carlsen 1.65
Kramnik 9/2
Aronian 5/1

Interestingly shaving a point off Kramnik and Aronian against betfair.

Marathonbet (our Russian friend), offers a whopping 8.7 on Kramnik:

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/

That site is already offering an individual games market (it seems to offer a few chess markets, as it happens).

Thanks Posh Bloke.

As I said last night, please keep us updated on this. I don't want to pressurise you to bet, but if you recommend a Chess bet, we will get on, as they are great quality, & enduring, sweats.

[tikay]

Cricket Update

A horrific day for England who are on the wrong end of a proper good hiding, but we are not on England, so we can live with that.

Fred is in as good a shape as we could dare hope, with our 2 Series bets.

We have Trott Top England Batter Bloke, & although it is a way too early to get excited, he heads the list so far. We have £15 @ 9/2, down to hector.

In Top England Bowler Bloke, we have Anderson, who took FOUR wickets, & now heads the list by 2 wickets, & he did so with, given the circumstances, good economy, 3.72.  We have £40 @ 9/4, down to Tighty.

Obviously, we want to win with our bets, but a close second is a good Fred Sweat, & it looks like we have 2/2 there.

Good stuff.

The full scorecard is here.....


http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-england-2013/engine/match/569243.html

[tikay]

Crystal Palace to win the league at 25/1 with Stan James.

We are 7 points behind Cardiff and they have a game in hand. Watford are 5 points behind but they are best priced at 7.5. Hull are 6 points behind and are best priced at 12. Does being only 2 points behind Watford justify the difference in price for the title?

Think there generally is a discrepancy with the odds here, as aside from Stan James, the best you can get on Palace is 21 but is generally at around the 19 mark.

What the interesting thing here is, is that we are odds on to beat Leeds at home on Saturday and Cardiff face Leicester at home and with their current form could easily drop points there. So as early as Saturday night the best price could be about 15's for us, so I think there is value here. Cardiff could be on say 72 points after a draw and Palace on 67 after a win, with us still needing to play 9 games.

Add in the fact that in the last 6 games, Cardiff have looked shaky, and with the three teams behind them all doing well, they are feeling the pressure, despite their game in hand and points advantage. One of their players admitted they were lucky to draw against Derby in their last game and they were at home to them. Cardiff are known to have a terrible patch to make them drop down the league quickly, and this season they are yet to have it, and with the fans and players alike thinking the hoodoo may be returning, that adds even more pressure. Add on top that the chairman have been upsetting the fans recently too.

Would say at the moment, Palace are the toughest team in the league to play at home and I am quietly confident we could get 5 wins there (Leeds are our bogey team though I must say!), and then you really can't be sure how well we will do away, it is only 5 games and there is the shot we get 3 wins in these and if that is the case the title is probably ours.

Holloway too, after the Hull game, was hinting heavily that we could win the league, saying that Cardiff hadn't the league won and was just dropping short of saying we could do it. Would imagine he is telling the players this and they may well be shaping up into beast mode to do the unthinkable. Our form has been very good of late too, with Johnny Williams, Bolasie, Zaha, Phillips all playing great (had to basically stop short of saying the whole team!).
 
I wouldn't say Palace winning the league is likely, but I think I would be right in saying there is definite value in placing a bet at 25/1 here. I took 54/1 with Betfair about three games ago I think and that is long gone.

Well worth a fiver I would say.

Thanks Ant.

Fred cannot get on with Stan James, but I would not dissuade others from so doing. Realistically, the best price elsewhere is 16/1 or 18/1, so that price is well ool.

At those prices, personally, it does not look like a bet to me.

We also have the problem of RTG, & I don't mean that rudely, but you are a bit if a Palace fanatic, living the dream.

Mr Camel - remember him? - is very pragmatic when it comes to betting, & he seemed to be pretty confident that Palace cannot win this.

I also fret a bit about some of the evidence you gave to support the proposed bet.

Holloway too, after the Hull game, was hinting heavily that we could win the league

I really don't think that counts for much, to be honest, what else would you expert him to say?

In short, I'd not put anyone else off 25/1 if they can get it, but for me, it is not a Fred bet @ 18/1. 

I really need to get my head round Camel's departure, because I rely on Elders to guide me in spots like this. For now, I need to toughen up a bit with bet selection, until I decide how we replace him.

Anyway.....for your sake, I hope Palace win the League. Live that dream, baby.