Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Snowboarder (33/1) ran 4th, having led into the home straight.

Given every chance, maybe a little too eager early. To my untrained eye, not given the best of rides, but I imagine the jockey knows best.

Good effort horsey, unlucky, and we almost held for a nice priced third place.

[BigAdz]

having really bad internet problems (thanks builders so typing this from phone which im surprised can even load blonde


bet suggest

£10 eway snowboarder 2.25 meydan 33-1 blues/888sport (happy to take down to 25-1) first 3 places

basically a price thing

not often you can back a horse at 33-1 that was favourite to beat todays favourite last time (secret number)

not as if snowboarder ran that badly infact last twice now has had poorish rides and pulled hard throughout so the suggestion is still in form.

The fav did win easily last time but 33-1 is to much of an over reaction

Ran a great race. Its as Willoughby said earlier "thats why in athletics you get a head start when you have to run round the outside".

[Bazzaboy]

I've spent a lot of time looking at the Bellew fight and I'm not sure I'm much wiser than I was before I started so I don't have a strong view either way.

One I do like tonight is Grachev against Erdei.  Grachev gave Bute problems and lost a close decision (I scored it a draw).  This was Bute post Froch and Grachev was lined up as an easy defence to get him back to winning ways.  Now Bute has probably been mentally scarred following the Froch beating and is almost certainly not the force he was pre Froch but Grachev acquitted himself very well given his lack of experience at that level.  Erdei is 33-0 but that record flatters him as he has never been in with anyone world class. He is now 39 and hasn't fought for the best part of two years.  The fight is on neutral ground in Monte Carlo of all places.  I think Grachev should be favourite here but we can back him at 11/10 with WH, SB and Boyles.  Recommend £40.

[tikay]

I've spent a lot of time looking at the Bellew fight and I'm not sure I'm much wiser than I was before I started so I don't have a strong view either way.

One I do like tonight is Grachev against Erdei.  Grachev gave Bute problems and lost a close decision (I scored it a draw).  This was Bute post Froch and Grachev was lined up as an easy defence to get him back to winning ways.  Now Bute has probably been mentally scarred following the Froch beating and is almost certainly not the force he was pre Froch but Grachev acquitted himself very well given his lack of experience at that level.  Erdei is 33-0 but that record flatters him as he has never been in with anyone world class. He is now 39 and hasn't fought for the best part of two years.  The fight is on neutral ground in Monte Carlo of all places.  I think Grachev should be favourite here but we can back him at 11/10 with WH, SB and Boyles.  Recommend £40.

Thanks Bazza.

11/10 against a guy who has not fought for nearly 2 years, and is nearly 40 years old!

We have got on, exactly as suggested, £40 @ 11/10 with Wm Hill.

Betslip details later.

ON

[tikay]

Hector's Rugby Union bet, a quite unusual one for us, is ok so far, we are on Wasps to win by 1 to 12 points, I think.

After 50 minutes, Wasps lead 13-8.

Steady down now boys, no need to do anything rash......

[tikay]

With 10 minutes left, Saracens lead 16-13.

One try please, Wasps.

[tikay]

With 10 minutes left, Saracens lead 16-13.

One try please, Wasps.

Make that one try and one Pen, we are 6 behind with 3 minutes remaining.

[aaron1867]

Bet365 update their markets for relegation odds from Championship, Barnsley EVS, but 7/4 elsewhere.

[mulhuzz]

Aftertiming ofc but citeh -2 vs toon today was tap in.

[BigAdz]

What are the Elders(or anyone else) thoughts on James Willoughby. I know he has plenty of fans on here, but after listening to yet another day of his fascinating insights, he was wide of the mark in most of the races in Dubai. As he seems to be whenever I watch a  card of his analysis

For all his use of sectional timing/pace in the race/track conditions, most of it is reflective and this was very evident during his Dubai World Cup analysis during the day, which was very insightful and compelling. The race itself was run exactly as he hoped, but, even then, yet again he was wide of the mark when they passed the post.

Can anyone put me straight with facts about his strike rate/wealth made from racing etc, before I reluctantly downgrade the level of importance I place on his input.

PS, not sour grapes, as I didnt back his fancies, but I nearly did all day. Just putting it out there on a quiet Saturday night

[kukushkin88]

What are the Elders(or anyone else) thoughts on James Willoughby. I know he has plenty of fans on here, but after listening to yet another day of his fascinating insights, he was wide of the mark in most of the races in Dubai. As he seems to be whenever I watch a  card of his analysis

For all his use of sectional timing/pace in the race/track conditions, most of it is reflective and this was very evident during his Dubai World Cup analysis during the day, which was very insightful and compelling. The race itself was run exactly as he hoped, but, even then, yet again he was wide of the mark when they passed the post.

Can anyone put me straight with facts about his strike rate/wealth made from racing etc, before I reluctantly downgrade the level of importance I place on his input.

PS, not sour grapes, as I didnt back his fancies, but I nearly did all day. Just putting it out there on a quiet Saturday night

I think he's a very shrewd guy. The best judge on TV, I'm always interested in his view when I'm going through a race.

[BigAdz]

Couple for consideration

Grand National
The recent profile, possibly due to course changes, has seen the quality horses fare a lot more consistently in the National the last few years. We have seen plenty of what I would call "nearly horses" doing well, those that have run well in top flight races without ever doing the biz.
One horses that fits the bill and has gone under the radar this year is What A Friend. No one can accuse me of any sentimental atatchment to this horse, I have never backed it, but it looks to have been its target for a while.
It ran in the race two years ago and was 12-1, when only 8 yrs old, normally a year or so too young for the trendmeisters. It jumped in the main very well but was hampered first time round at Beechers and D Jacob was almost out the side door and did well to recover. He went prominent until a mistake at the Canal Turn told late on , along with plenty of scrimaging. Nonetheless it was a good grounding over the fences.
Non runner no bet he is 50s generally, and for the brave he is 130s on Betty.

In the Masters, again a player I have never backed before. Lee Westwood.
Outstanding recent Masters record over last 3 years something like 4th last year, 11th year before and 2nd year before that.
Not been finishing well this year but reportedly happy with his game and getting in uninterupted practice, he is in a good place.
The Shell Open this week is set up to play like a Masters warm up with slick greens etc, and he has started well. Should he place high his price will contract and I like the fact they have a week between this and the Masters, so any glory and over confidence can subside.

at 28-1 6 places with PP, again I would ask for thoughts on a v quiet GF.

Happy easter all
[/quote


I know this was poo poo'd by red, but Westwood currently on a charge in Shell Open, and some of the prices on him shortening for Masters. Oddschecker has him at 23s on Betty, yet still 28s on VC bet first 5 places. Must be value if beating betty?! was 28 PP first 6 but now 25s

[Marky147]

Couple for consideration

Grand National
The recent profile, possibly due to course changes, has seen the quality horses fare a lot more consistently in the National the last few years. We have seen plenty of what I would call "nearly horses" doing well, those that have run well in top flight races without ever doing the biz.
One horses that fits the bill and has gone under the radar this year is What A Friend. No one can accuse me of any sentimental atatchment to this horse, I have never backed it, but it looks to have been its target for a while.
It ran in the race two years ago and was 12-1, when only 8 yrs old, normally a year or so too young for the trendmeisters. It jumped in the main very well but was hampered first time round at Beechers and D Jacob was almost out the side door and did well to recover. He went prominent until a mistake at the Canal Turn told late on , along with plenty of scrimaging. Nonetheless it was a good grounding over the fences.
Non runner no bet he is 50s generally, and for the brave he is 130s on Betty.

In the Masters, again a player I have never backed before. Lee Westwood.
Outstanding recent Masters record over last 3 years something like 4th last year, 11th year before and 2nd year before that.
Not been finishing well this year but reportedly happy with his game and getting in uninterupted practice, he is in a good place.
The Shell Open this week is set up to play like a Masters warm up with slick greens etc, and he has started well. Should he place high his price will contract and I like the fact they have a week between this and the Masters, so any glory and over confidence can subside.

at 28-1 6 places with PP, again I would ask for thoughts on a v quiet GF.

Happy easter all

I know this was poo poo'd by red, but Westwood currently on a charge in Shell Open, and some of the prices on him shortening for Masters. Oddschecker has him at 23s on Betty, yet still 28s on VC bet first 5 places. Must be value if beating betty?! was 28 PP first 6 but now 25s

Suits me for a sweat, beats using my pin for Golf as well

[Snowball]

Peter "snakebite" Wright wins 6-2.
His next opponent Osbourne won 6-5 with a 81 average so he would need yo up his game by about 10 points to trouble our Man.

[tikay]

Couple for consideration

Grand National
The recent profile, possibly due to course changes, has seen the quality horses fare a lot more consistently in the National the last few years. We have seen plenty of what I would call "nearly horses" doing well, those that have run well in top flight races without ever doing the biz.
One horses that fits the bill and has gone under the radar this year is What A Friend. No one can accuse me of any sentimental atatchment to this horse, I have never backed it, but it looks to have been its target for a while.
It ran in the race two years ago and was 12-1, when only 8 yrs old, normally a year or so too young for the trendmeisters. It jumped in the main very well but was hampered first time round at Beechers and D Jacob was almost out the side door and did well to recover. He went prominent until a mistake at the Canal Turn told late on , along with plenty of scrimaging. Nonetheless it was a good grounding over the fences.
Non runner no bet he is 50s generally, and for the brave he is 130s on Betty.

In the Masters, again a player I have never backed before. Lee Westwood.
Outstanding recent Masters record over last 3 years something like 4th last year, 11th year before and 2nd year before that.
Not been finishing well this year but reportedly happy with his game and getting in uninterupted practice, he is in a good place.
The Shell Open this week is set up to play like a Masters warm up with slick greens etc, and he has started well. Should he place high his price will contract and I like the fact they have a week between this and the Masters, so any glory and over confidence can subside.

at 28-1 6 places with PP, again I would ask for thoughts on a v quiet GF.

Happy easter all
[/quote


I know this was poo poo'd by red, but Westwood currently on a charge in Shell Open, and some of the prices on him shortening for Masters. Oddschecker has him at 23s on Betty, yet still 28s on VC bet first 5 places. Must be value if beating betty?! was 28 PP first 6 but now 25s

Beating Betty, yes, suggests value, but it would be easy to over-value his current position in the Shell Houston Open - one shot covers the top FOURTEEN players, 5 on 10 under & 9 on 9 under.

Bit like a bunch finish in a  horse race, there is rarely a world-beater there.