Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

There you go, the man who started TfT.

Looking good, or what?

Note the photo-bombing by Barry Crater.

[The Camel]

Didn't want to leave a negative post in this happy place.

To confirm, Cheers For Thea wants fast ground and is trained by Timothy Easterby, not foul-mouthed Uncle Mick.

Ha!

We don't do negative here but the Post was fine, except the bit where you said Trigg was shite at punting & pokering. 

Mick never gave a toss what people thought, as he was from Yorkshire, proper Yorkshire (North).

Met Mick Easterby in a pub in York one evening.

Hilarious bloke but didn't get a round in as far as I remember.

Yorkshire folk, see?

Must say Keith, you were looking very well, best I have seen you look in years, & a good deal lighter, in that photo from the APAT thing.

Did you enjoy it, & win it?

If not you, I hope it was Ian Gascoigbne or Chinese Frankie. Frankie is much missed here. Annoying sod at times, but heart in the right place.

I did enjoy it, but alas I did not win it.

But nicked a few quid so can't complain.

Met several blondes who I had either not seen in years or never met at all.

Never knew Laxie was a yank, didn't realise Junior was so old, heard that if Red Dog got much older he'd be renamed Dead Dog, found out Mr Shoelace favoured the much underused combination of pullover/jacket  nd benefited from some words of wisdom from Mr Gascoigne Sr who was another on my "Blondes I'd never met before" list

So altogether an excellent evening, despite being scandalously overlooked at the APAT awards.

[doubleup]

FML.

A now Deleted Post by (personal number plate) tells me the trainer of Cheers For Thea is TIM Easterby, Mick's nephew I believe.

Trust me to get it right round my neck, & write a ton of waffle about the wrong bloke.

Move on, next case, lost the plot here.

As long as it wins no one will care............. oh wait

[tikay]

Our Man in the Darts Snakebite Wright is priced up 4/7 today, this should be closer to 1/3 imo.
On this years ranking he is 5th in the world while Osbournea record against players in the top 25 was 3 wins from 21.

I also like Thornton most 180s v Taylor @4/6 on Thursday, price won't last.
Taylor hasn't had more than 2 180s in his last 10 matches while Thornton has hit 3 or more 8 times in his last 11

Thanks Snowy.

We have pushed the boat out a bit with this one, the price looks exceptional.

We will either do a bomb today, or maybe creep over the £1,000 profit in a month threshold for the first time.

We have £70 @ 4/7, Peter Wright to beat Colin Osborne today.

Will look at the other one shortly.


£70 @ 4/7, Blue Square, Peter Wright to beat Colin Osborne.

ON

Selection Peter Wright @ 4/7 
Market
 Match Winner
 
Event
 European Tour
Peter Wright v Colin Osborne
2013-03-31 13:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £70.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £70.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2013-03-31 12:05:38
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000201
 

[The Camel]

There you go, the man who started TfT.

Looking good, or what?

Note the photo-bombing by Barry Crater.

Laxie said I was 30 years younger than she imagined.

Did she think I was a contemporary of yours or something?

[tikay]

Our Man in the Darts Snakebite Wright is priced up 4/7 today, this should be closer to 1/3 imo.
On this years ranking he is 5th in the world while Osbournea record against players in the top 25 was 3 wins from 21.

I also like Thornton most 180s v Taylor @4/6 on Thursday, price won't last.
Taylor hasn't had more than 2 180s in his last 10 matches while Thornton has hit 3 or more 8 times in his last 11

In Snowy's Darts bets we trust. Spending a bunch of money on your suggestions today, but if that price is false, best get on now, or spend all week regretting it.

£60 @ 4/6, Boylesports, Thornton most 180's v Phil Taylor, Premier League Darts, Thursday.

ON
et ref: 80/78
Thornton, Robert @ 4/6
Taylor v Thornton
Who Will Score The Most 180's
Total stake   £60.00
Estimated return   £100.00
Full stake   £60.00
Full estimated return   £100.0

[tikay]

There you go, the man who started TfT.

Looking good, or what?

Note the photo-bombing by Barry Crater.

Laxie said I was 30 years younger than she imagined.

Did she think I was a contemporary of yours or something?

Laxie says the same of me, as do many. Very few people realise I am nearly 50.

I doubt there are 5 years between us. What are you, 55?

[Sheriff Fatman]

Cambridge 5/2 in an illiquid betfair market.

Can any team be 5/2 in the Boat Race? Two strong crews and Oxford deservedly favourites.

I'll let someone impartial decide on that.

I was thinking along similar lines, although I'm equally impartial to you.

Oxford are slightly heavier, Cambridge slightly taller on average, but I'm slightly surprised to see them using one of their heaviest man in the stroke seat (bags of experience and presumably the best technical rower, but not the normal seat for a guy who's 6'7" and over 17st).

The biggest differential may well be in the cox seat though (http://theboatrace.org/men/compare-blue-boat/2013/cox).  Cambridge have a guy who's pretty much grown up on the Tideway by the looks of things, whilst Oxford have a foreigner who appears to have very little experience of this particular course.  That knowledge might prove to be the difference in a close race as it may well come down to who can find the fastest water.

Throw in the vaguaries of the course, the luck of the toss, etc and I'm struggling to see how the prices are so distorted towards Oxford.

Recommend a modest value bet on Cambridge at 14/5 on Betfair or 11/4 with Stan James.

Not sure

Two weeks ago Oxford beat the German Olympic crew in their final trial

Six of the eight won Gold at London

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/2012/sports/rowing/events/mens-eight

"Oxford beat a German crew earlier this month which featured the core of the eight who won Olympic gold in London, and have several factors in their favour.

The heavier crew has won eight of the last 11 races, and Oxford weighed in for this year's contest more than 2kg heavier per man at 757.6kg (excluding the cox). "


Would appear to be a pretty good reason why Oxford are prohibitive favourites

The mindset for the Boat Race (in fact any Varsity event) is unique in that the Varsity Game is quite literally the only one that matters in the season, so the warm up races have to be treated with some caution (unless the two crews have raced against the same opponent at similar times).

And the Boat Race is nothing like the Olympic Regatta, so the experience is very different.  The two crews are equally matched in terms of prior experience of this race (Oxford have 3 previous Blues, plus an Isis rower, Cambridge have 4 previous Blues).

The lighter crew has won in the last two years (although last year's result was affected by the swimmer and the clash of oars).

The other thing to note is that the race has been coxed far more aggressively in recent years, with more clashes of oars than I can remember in earlier periods.  Last year highlighted how easily one of the carbon fibre blades can snap, which throws another randomizing factor into the outcome, and there's also the chance that a crew will get disqualified soon.

Oxford's advantage in recent years has been that their technique has been better in general (better coaching) and I think this still holds true this year, as these things generally run for several years (Cambridge had a similar advantage in the 1990s when they dominated for a few years).

I'm not disputing that they should be favourites, but I've not seen enough to convince me they should be quite so short, although I accept there's a hint of light-blue tint in my spectacles today!

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 1230, Sunday March 31st

PROFIT on Month = £904.60

Outstanding bets £1,188.50




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=22

[Snowball]

To add to todays bet, Wright averaged over 96 last night.
Osbourne scraped through 6-5 averaging 81

[tikay]

To add to todays bet, Wright averaged over 96 last night.
Osbourne scraped through 6-5 averaging 81

Am very happy with the bet Snowy, win or lose, I rarely stick £70 on unless requested, but this looks a good thing.

[claypole]

Greetings from Thailand Fred

Had anybody discussed todays game. I think Villa at 9/2 is too big. Villa are coming off back to back wins and showing improvement - and Liverpool the loss at Southampton. Lambert has a 4-0 record v Rogers.  The game is priced up effectively the same as yesterdays Sunderland game; that just can't be a fair reflection.

Reccomend 40 Villa DNB.  Best price is 3/1 with B365, we get slightly better if we have 30 Villa 9/2 and 10 draw at . If we can't get on VC takes the 3/1 365

Shaun!

Was it you that gave us Walsall to go up/down/middle?.......

Need some feedback on this one, Fred has a shocking record trying to get the right side of Liverpool.

Where is Doobs, The Voice Of Reason, when we need him? Visiting in-laws for Easter, I fancy.

Nope not guilty on Walsall....did suggest Norwich at , yiu swerved well. I'm nursing a massive hangover, and I thought as Trigg put a nag up I'd get involved.

Yep, get the Liverpool thing; they clearly had turned a corner, however I just think the result at Southampton could impact them and like the Lambert stat, obv sets his teams up well against Rogers brand of football.  Also, their slim hopes of fourth have gone - and I like the way Villa have played last two games. These markes are all pretty efficient obv, however I think Villa win this game more the price suggests.  Asian Syndicates still in love Liverpool.

Let's see what Doobs and Tighty think

I am on Triggs EW - let's go go go.

See you soon when I'm home

[TightEnd]

Greetings from Thailand Fred

Had anybody discussed todays game. I think Villa at 9/2 is too big. Villa are coming off back to back wins and showing improvement - and Liverpool the loss at Southampton. Lambert has a 4-0 record v Rogers.  The game is priced up effectively the same as yesterdays Sunderland game; that just can't be a fair reflection.

Reccomend 40 Villa DNB.  Best price is 3/1 with B365, we get slightly better if we have 30 Villa 9/2 and 10 draw at . If we can't get on VC takes the 3/1 365

Shaun!

Was it you that gave us Walsall to go up/down/middle?.......

Need some feedback on this one, Fred has a shocking record trying to get the right side of Liverpool.

Where is Doobs, The Voice Of Reason, when we need him? Visiting in-laws for Easter, I fancy.

Nope not guilty on Walsall....did suggest Norwich at , yiu swerved well. I'm nursing a massive hangover, and I thought as Trigg put a nag up I'd get involved.

Yep, get the Liverpool thing; they clearly had turned a corner, however I just think the result at Southampton could impact them and like the Lambert stat, obv sets his teams up well against Rogers brand of football.  Also, their slim hopes of fourth have gone - and I like the way Villa have played last two games. These markes are all pretty efficient obv, however I think Villa win this game more the price suggests.  Asian Syndicates still in love Liverpool.

Let's see what Doobs and Tighty think

I am on Triggs EW - let's go go go.

See you soon when I'm home

Not qualified Malaysia man

I did a shift last night, got back in at 4am and started researching the boat race, thats how sad I am.

There's no hope for me in trying to get Liverpool right

FWIW I wouldn't be against Liverpool today.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 1235, Sunday March 31st


We eked a profit of £13 yesterday, not much, but little & often suits me down to the ground. The Easter football coupons are SO trappy, but we avoided a fair bit of carnage there.

Small losses on RU (-£15) & Horses (£10) were nicely balanced by a lovely boxing winner from Bazza, who rarely gets one wrong (+£44).

We end the month at midnight tonight, & unless disaster overtakes us today, it has been a cracking month.

Not such a good day for everyone though.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Whilst Fred is busy, a quick reminder about this.....

Come on, only £25, & these are tremendous fun, thanks to Mere's hard wiork.

Mere does all the Fred Spready Book-Keeping, so lets support his thread please.


http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=60721.0