Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Couple for consideration

Grand National
The recent profile, possibly due to course changes, has seen the quality horses fare a lot more consistently in the National the last few years. We have seen plenty of what I would call "nearly horses" doing well, those that have run well in top flight races without ever doing the biz.
One horses that fits the bill and has gone under the radar this year is What A Friend. No one can accuse me of any sentimental atatchment to this horse, I have never backed it, but it looks to have been its target for a while.
It ran in the race two years ago and was 12-1, when only 8 yrs old, normally a year or so too young for the trendmeisters. It jumped in the main very well but was hampered first time round at Beechers and D Jacob was almost out the side door and did well to recover. He went prominent until a mistake at the Canal Turn told late on , along with plenty of scrimaging. Nonetheless it was a good grounding over the fences.
Non runner no bet he is 50s generally, and for the brave he is 130s on Betty.

In the Masters, again a player I have never backed before. Lee Westwood.
Outstanding recent Masters record over last 3 years something like 4th last year, 11th year before and 2nd year before that.
Not been finishing well this year but reportedly happy with his game and getting in uninterupted practice, he is in a good place.
The Shell Open this week is set up to play like a Masters warm up with slick greens etc, and he has started well. Should he place high his price will contract and I like the fact they have a week between this and the Masters, so any glory and over confidence can subside.

at 28-1 6 places with PP, again I would ask for thoughts on a v quiet GF.

Happy easter all

I was reminded of this GN suggestion by Scotty, so big thanks to him.

At 50/1, 6 places paid, NRNB, it seems reasonable, but we spurned the much bigger prices on Betfair, or at least, for now, we could have some on Betty later.

I must be in a strange mood today, I'm shovelling money on left right & centre.

We have had.....

£10 EW @ 50/1, BetVictor, SIX places paid, NRNB, What A Friend, Grand National, 6th April.



ON


The Grand National 2013 (6 Places)
What A Friend (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  50/1
Stake:  20.00
Possible Return:  645.00

[tikay]

Just a quick thing re The Masters.

I would deffo recommend not betting now until the week of the event as we mentioned earlier the place terms and prices will be more competitive with the books then. We will also know the draw and likely weather over the 4 splits for the first 2 rounds. There have been a couple of times recently where one morning was much colder than the other one meaning the course plays much longer and the ball travels less distance. When Mickelson won in 2010 for example I think Nick Watney was the only player to make the top ten from one side of the draw and he had to shoot 65 on the last day to do it.

The one possible exception tho relates a little to BigAdz Westwood bet. This weeks course is set up to play Augusta ish and the form is a good guide. Oosty should really have won both comps last year, so if Adz does like Westy at the price that is close to BF now then it would probably make sense to bet him if he does go close to winning tonight if the firms are slow to cut the fixed odds Masters price, same with a few others near the top of the board, tho would prob not be good to bet each way 4 places when there will be plenty of 6 places come the off.

Grest stuff as usual Phil, thanks, some stuff there I would never have dreamed of considering.

Overall, I think for EW stuff, you are right, we should wait until all the Offers start being announced, probably after the National is out of the way.

I will keep an eye on how Westwood does this evening, & his Masters price, with finger poised, for Adzy though.

[tikay]

Count Guido going along nicely....

[tikay]

Go on........

[tikay]

BOOM!

Count Guido Deiro wins.

That covers the cost of the £150, now we are freerolling on the 2nd single, and the EW double.

If that one wins, I may have children with Channing.

[EvilPie]

Smug bastard!!

[tikay]

Smug bastard!!

Serves you right for having reliable Internet.

[BigAdz]

BOOM!

Count Guido Deiro wins.

That covers the cost of the £150, now we are freerolling on the 2nd single, and the EW double.

If that one wins, I may have children with Channing.

TY. No sleep for me tonight

[EvilPie]

Smug bastard!!

Serves you right for having reliable Internet.

Could've been an interesting £15k sweat if that first one hadn't lost it's little pilot fella.

[doubleup]

Smug bastard!!

Serves you right for having reliable Internet.

Even though I'm on the next one I hope it loses.

[EvilPie]

Smug bastard!!

Serves you right for having reliable Internet.

Even though I'm on the next one I hope it loses.

Yeah f**k it. Me too!!!

[BigAdz]

I know he has had a bad time of it last few years but what kind of a ride did Chris Williams give that??!!

[EvilPie]

Got a sweat on now to see if I've min cashed.

[doubleup]

good sweat thanks Neil - pity that tikay ruined it with his jaminess

[Bad Beat]

 Not quite sure how that got 3rd. Favourite ended up a massive price. Such weak markets on Sunday though, always ridiculous amounts of money for the rags.

 Fun sweat while it lasted.

 Should probably mention I'll have Liverpool stuff up on Betting Emporium throughout the Grand National meeting.

 Haven't had any bets on that yet but I'm contemplating an ante-post bet for Thursday. I may post it on Tuesday.