Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 1145, Saturday April 27th

Kitchen sink day today.

Three bets yesterday, all lost.

Two NFL Draft bets also lost.

I've cleared out a bunch of dead "Season" Football bets, 5 in total, sounds awful, but only £113, & we still have plenty of Live stuff.

After looking very hard I DID manage to find one winner in amongst all that red ink, so that repaired some of the damage, it was the NFL Draft for TE's, for which we scooped no less than......£10.50.

All in all, some £240 has disappeared from the Fred Economy today.

A good day today would be very welcome.

[JoeBeevers]

Tony, the BE.com overs have had a few bad weeks and hopefully with the sun shining we'll see a few more winners today.

There is one particular game in the Championship where I actually like the unders today. I know Brighton put a hat-full past Blackpool last week but at Bloomfield Road it is a different story. There are rumours the pitch is dire and the last six games there read:

Apr 16th Sheff Weds 0-0
Apr 13th Burnley 1-0
Apr 1st Crystal Palace 1-0
Mar 16th Peterborough 0-1
Mar 2nd Bristol City 0-0
Feb 23rd Leicester 0-0

Recommend a speculative £10 on each (Blackpool v Derby):
0-0 19/2 VCBet (happy if you go mad and make it £20)
1-0 7/1 VCBet

and £40 under 2.5 at 4/5 with , you can bet 5/6 if you use 188bet (worst way the 31/40 VC is ok as well) to cover.

[horseplayer]

Tony, the BE.com overs have had a few bad weeks and hopefully with the sun shining we'll see a few more winners today.

There is one particular game in the Championship where I actually like the unders today. I know Brighton put a hat-full past Blackpool last week but at Bloomfield Road it is a different story. There are rumours the pitch is dire and the last six games there read:

Apr 16th Sheff Weds 0-0
Apr 13th Burnley 1-0
Apr 1st Crystal Palace 1-0
Mar 16th Peterborough 0-1
Mar 2nd Bristol City 0-0
Feb 23rd Leicester 0-0

Recommend a speculative £10 on each (Blackpool v Derby):
0-0 19/2 VCBet (happy if you go mad and make it £20)
1-0 7/1 VCBet

and £40 under 2.5 at 4/5 with , you can bet 5/6 if you use 188bet (worst way the 31/40 VC is ok as well) to cover.

tikay if you are going to back the 0-0 please back no goalscorer as first scorer instead at same price with vc as it then covers an own goal or two

[TightEnd]

The Blackpool pitch is a beach. really tricky to play football on it,and reflective of lack of goals at Bloomfield road

The Oyston's skimped on a new drainage system when the stadium's two newer stands went up, and with the pitch now getting very little sun, its led to the current problems





http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2295492/Footballs-golden-years-Think-pitch-Blackpool-poor-shape-You-look-little-lot-.html

[tikay]

Thanks Joe, & I gotcha horsey, noted.

Got some stuff to sort first, will have a butchers shortly.

[Tal]

Radjabov was never going to finish mid-table, so just, as we say in these parts, "one a them, aynit"

No chess today (rest day in both of the major comps). Two prices interest me for tomorrow in St Petersburg: one I've spoken about before, being Anand at 13/1 to win with Black against a Kramnik firing on about 75% (not enough at this level). Kramnik got absolutely blasted off the board against the lowest rated player in the tournament the other day. Anand, conversely, managed to get everything pointing in the right direction and dispatched the Chinese champion, Ding Liren.

Draw seems inevitable but both players need a win to give themselves a chance in the comp and, in Kramnik's case, to salvage some rating points.


The other one is a less speculative punt. Whilst in the other tournament, in Switzerland, where Radjabov is...y'know, we can leave him be and reflect on British Number One, Michael Adams who plays the Armenian superstar Lev Aronian. 

The draw is marked up at 1.952, which is a big price and reflects that both players have drawn only 2 of their 5 games so far.

What interests me about this bet is that they've drawn the last four times they have played. Their styles seem to tessellate well and, although either could break through the other with Aronian's superior imagination and Adams's superior piece placement, the draw seems a little enticing.

Happy to take suggestions on this (short of where I can stick these bets). What I would typically do in this sort of betting situation is put, say, £10 on the draw and a fiver on the 13/1 shot. Is that a bad strategy generally or is it irrelevant as long as the bets are sound in their own right?

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess

[tikay]

Man City should easily dispose of West Ham (12.45 today).

Is it usual, or right, though, that 2nd in the table (at home) v 10th in the Table (away) means West Ham should be 12/1?

Should be straightforward for City, of course, but 2nd v 10th does not sound like a 12/1 shot to me.

Is that the "standard" price in this scenario?

[luther101]

Go easy with the 'Blackpool pitch' factor - I'm pretty certain they've re-laid it recently.

[tikay]

Go easy with the 'Blackpool pitch' factor - I'm pretty certain they've re-laid it recently.

Don't think so Loofer.

As chance would have it, whilst enjoying the day's first latte this morning, I was perusing my copy of The Blackpool Gazette, an unmissable read, I'm sure you'll agree, although I only take it on a Saturday.



http://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/sport/football/blackpool-fc/oyston-we-ll-solve-pitch-shambles-1-5381266

[TightEnd]

@NorthantsCricket

Northants WIN with Maximum points! Well played lads - another superb team effort!! #TableToppers



Hampshire going well too, and Katich scored 93 for Lancs

[simonnatur]

I believe Fred has promo cash  ( as do I ) with BetVictor and it seems like our Blackpool/Derby score bets are in the right ball park odds-wise to give us a decent ev using promo cash where stake not returned.

Welcome other suggestions to put it to use...

[tikay]

I believe Fred has promo cash  ( as do I ) with BetVictor and it seems like our Blackpool/Derby score bets are in the right ball park odds-wise to give us a decent ev using promo cash where stake not returned.

Welcome other suggestions to put it to use...

Thanks Simon, that had not occurred to me.

I believe the Big Boys do suggest that "Free Bet" money should be utilised on bigger price stuff, such as this, though I can't quite recall the precise rationale.

[nirvana]

Yuh, Kedwall/Kedwell can safely be binned. Popers has got that one in the bag.

Amazed anyone follows this man

[Junior Senior]

 In laddies. in shop price, They go 5/6 Everton to beat Fulham. It's 8/15 or 1/2 everywhere else. Might be worth seeing off online follows but that has to be huge! Fulham nothing to play for and Everton need to secure Europa

[The Camel]

In laddies. in shop price, They go 5/6 Everton to beat Fulham. It's 8/15 or 1/2 everywhere else. Might be worth seeing off online follows but that has to be huge! Fulham nothing to play for and Everton need to secure Europa

I'd guess there will be a price change on that coupon price old fella.