Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

I don't want to fall out but it upsets me that nobody here seems to understand that placing bets that are -ev will lose you money in the long-run. It is like the flat earth society.

 I was not debating I was stating facts. I'm not sure if you are saying my facts are not facts or if you chose to just ignore them.

 I definitely respect Tighty and many others here in their ability to pick out a price that is wrong and place a +ev wager. That is why I find it frustrating to see them wasting time with -ev ones.

 It is, of course possible, that the market in the IPL outright, (the games now have more liquidity than the EPL in the Asian Market), is totally wrong and at 100.9% on Betfair it would sound like it is possible.

 I suspect that with just four teams left it is right though and it only possible to place -ev bets. Very small -ev maybe, but -ev all the same.

 You had a great bet, your analysis was excellent as it usually is, you should certainly spend your valuable time on the next event and let variance run it's course and results take care of themselves.

I love that you explain the facts so patiently each time this comes up.
You give slightly different examples and clarification each time.
Your logic is indisputable.

Still, I fear that you're preaching to the deaf.

No, he's not. I get that Neil is presenting facts, and understand his logic

I seem to have difficulty articulating the upsides of portfolio management for bets, on the other hand, and the adaptation of my old trading principle "always leave a bit for the last man" to that portfolio, as it conflicts with the notion of always making each decision in isolation, bets don't have memory, only do it if +EV at the time etc etc

so will retire gracefully :-)
 

[BigAdz]

I don't want to fall out but it upsets me that nobody here seems to understand that placing bets that are -ev will lose you money in the long-run. It is like the flat earth society.

 I was not debating I was stating facts. I'm not sure if you are saying my facts are not facts or if you chose to just ignore them.

 I definitely respect Tighty and many others here in their ability to pick out a price that is wrong and place a +ev wager. That is why I find it frustrating to see them wasting time with -ev ones.

 It is, of course possible, that the market in the IPL outright, (the games now have more liquidity than the EPL in the Asian Market), is totally wrong and at 100.9% on Betfair it would sound like it is possible.

 I suspect that with just four teams left it is right though and it only possible to place -ev bets. Very small -ev maybe, but -ev all the same.

 You had a great bet, your analysis was excellent as it usually is, you should certainly spend your valuable time on the next event and let variance run it's course and results take care of themselves.

I totally, totally agree with your argument/facts Neil.

I know what my problem is, and that is this, I have £50 on Mumbai at 5-1 flashing up potential returns of £300. The thought of having travelled this far, galls me to think I can end up with nothing. If I lose straight away, its no biggie. Its fair game etc. So, Maybe its a bankroll thing, but no, its not, I have a healthy existence/roll etc, and £300 is not gonna make a difference to me either way. Its the same if i go shopping with the Mrs. If have have gone and done it, I will want to come back with something. Anything. Just to justify not wasting that time. And its probably the same mindset I bet with.

Conversely, I would never hedge an ew bet, because in my mind that has an inherent hedge built in. Nuts, I know.

I accept, I am a lost cause, but please don't stop the lessons Neil, because I love to preach it to my mates.

[Bad Beat]

We should spend some of the profits Tighty has made us recently on a new wager...

 Presburg 4.10 Brighton. I'd happily take 7/1, probably start 5/1 or less. Stan James are 10/1.

 Win only.

 No need to fall out, hope I didn't sound patronising, it wasn't my intention.

[Marky147]

I think basically for most it is a case of...

Happiness EV >>> Actual EV

It is beyond doubt that it is flawed, however, some obviously find it hard to follow the correct path. I was one of these, but in order to stop I have just lowered my betsize to a level I am happy enough to lose.

[Marky147]

We should spend some of the profits Tighty has made us recently on a new wager...

 Presburg 4.10 Brighton. I'd happily take 7/1, probably start 5/1 or less. Stan James are 10/1.

 Win only.

 No need to fall out, hope I didn't sound patronising, it wasn't my intention.

Cheers Neil, I'm on and I've just chucked you £10 on this  as well Tikay.

[atdc21]

lol @ my copy and paste ability fml

[tikay]

We should spend some of the profits Tighty has made us recently on a new wager...

 Presburg 4.10 Brighton. I'd happily take 7/1, probably start 5/1 or less. Stan James are 10/1.

 Win only.

 No need to fall out, hope I didn't sound patronising, it wasn't my intention.

Cheers Neil, I'm on and I've just chucked you £10 on this  as well Tikay.

Ooh, top man, thanks Marky.

I owe you for two bets now, I think? Remind me how much, via PM if need be, & I'll ship it across.

So.....

Fred has £10 @ 10/1, Presburg, 4.10 Brighton

ON

[tikay]

lol @ my copy and paste ability fml

We've all been there, don't worry.

Problem is, I can't quite see the point you were making, as the quote, & your Post, are all sort of mixed up.

If you want, I'll Delete it for you, & you start again?

[atdc21]

that would be good tikay ty

[atdc21]

how do you get the original quote in those snazzy boxes?

[tikay]

that would be good tikay ty

It has now disappeared.

[TightEnd]

how do you get the original quote in those snazzy boxes?

press quote top right on the post you wish to quote

and then write under the [/quote] box only

[tikay]

how do you get the original quote in those snazzy boxes?

Find Neil's Post. That's easy, it is the one with copious quantities steam emenating from it.

Look for the "Quote" Button, which sits in a group of 4, just to the right of the thread title, & above the text box. Click that.

That then brings up his Post, in full.

Now the important part......

At the END of his post, it will show "quote brackets", being the end of his Post.

Type your reply AFTER that.

[tikay]

Or even better, what Tighty said.

FML.

[TightEnd]

This must be why Tumblr is worth $1.1bn

http://eaglesthatlooklikearsenewenger.tumblr.com/