Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Sccccchting two. Now Chompys in on the act!!!

[Tal]

Mere, it stands to reason that, if you sell at the correct price, you lose equity equal to the commission. If something has a 50% chance of winning and you back or sell it at even money, you wipe your face in equity terms.

The argument being proposed as I see it is that you should only bet in the first place an amount you are prepared to lose (ie, via Kelly or any other system you employ).

Then, when it comes to hedging, there should be no incentive to "lock up" half your bet, unless it is a second bet that makes you money on its own.

So, if a coin were perfect and BetDave offered 2/1 on heads, you should bet within your means but as much as you can afford.

Having done so, when BetDave drops the price to Even money, there's no reason to cash out. It should be zero sum if you do, though.

However, when BetDave goes 1/2, you can plough that lay above and beyond your original bet (by an equal amount above your cash out in this case) and you've made two great bets.

[Marky147]

Cheers Neil, great ride there and it puts Tikay back into credit too

[Tal]

Of course, if you punt for fun and include lifeEV and all that comes with it, that can form part of your calculation.

I imagine the retort will be your lifeEV is equal to the EV in the bookie's satchel.

I like money.

[MereNovice]

Mere, it stands to reason that, if you sell at the correct price, you lose equity equal to the commission. If something has a 50% chance of winning and you back or sell it at even money, you wipe your face in equity terms.

The argument being proposed as I see it is that you should only bet in the first place an amount you are prepared to lose (ie, via Kelly or any other system you employ).

Then, when it comes to hedging, there should be no incentive to "lock up" half your bet, unless it is a second bet that makes you money on its own.

So, if a coin were perfect and BetDave offered 2/1 on heads, you should bet within your means but as much as you can afford.

Having done so, when BetDave drops the price to Even money, there's no reason to cash out. It should be zero sum if you do, though.

However, when BetDave goes 1/2, you can plough that lay above and beyond your original bet (by an equal amount above your cash out in this case) and you've made two great bets.

I'm not sure that I understand some of your terminology but I'll assume that you're agreeing with me.
Let me know if that's not the case.

Even without commission, greening out at the right price reduces variance and (for some) increases happiness and general well being.

[TightEnd]

I quite like the principle of people looking after their own P and L's on thread tips (and keeping the thread up to date through the life of the tip, promotes ownership and ongoing involvement in the thread, and probably helps to promote a smoother upward path/lower variance to the overall P and L ) and going with what the person who put the tip on wants to do

I especially like that principle with Chennai on their way to 192-1 off 20..lol

All this is probably marginally at the expense of financial EV though, I totally accept...

[tikay]

We had a winner?

Why does that always happen when I am having my afternoon whatsit?

Well done Mr C!

[tikay]

Cheers Neil, great ride there and it puts Tikay back into credit too

Ooh, like.

[Tal]

Mere, it stands to reason that, if you sell at the correct price, you lose equity equal to the commission. If something has a 50% chance of winning and you back or sell it at even money, you wipe your face in equity terms.

The argument being proposed as I see it is that you should only bet in the first place an amount you are prepared to lose (ie, via Kelly or any other system you employ).

Then, when it comes to hedging, there should be no incentive to "lock up" half your bet, unless it is a second bet that makes you money on its own.

So, if a coin were perfect and BetDave offered 2/1 on heads, you should bet within your means but as much as you can afford.

Having done so, when BetDave drops the price to Even money, there's no reason to cash out. It should be zero sum if you do, though.

However, when BetDave goes 1/2, you can plough that lay above and beyond your original bet (by an equal amount above your cash out in this case) and you've made two great bets.

I'm not sure that I understand some of your terminology but I'll assume that you're agreeing with me.
Let me know if that's not the case.

Even without commission, greening out at the right price reduces variance and (for some) increases happiness and general well being.

Sorry, Mere. Entirely my fault for talking a bigger game than I play.

1. You should only place a bet if you believe the bookie has put it at too big a price. This means you are saying "I think this has a higher percentage chance of winning than you do, Mr Bookie"

2. You should only lay a bet if you believe the bookie has put it up at too small a price. This means you are saying "I think this has a lower percentage chance of winning than you do, Mr Bookie"

If you bet on something and it eventually contracts to the correct price, getting your money back or cashing in part of the bet doesn't technically make a difference.

But why bet £50 on a good price and then only leave £20 riding? That defeats the object of punishing the bookies, which is to take as much advantage of their mistakes as possible.

It is different if the price swings too far and that's when you "win" by cashing out the lot and "win" even more by adding a bit on top of your lay: you are using scenario 2 above to your advantage.

Commission is a complicating factor, because you have to "win" by 5% to break even in your bank balance, else the bookie's cut saves him.

So...if there is a 5% commission, if you lay your bet off when it is the correct price, you "lose" by 5%

[Tal]

I'm just applying logic and what I understand from what I've read in this thread, so if I'm getting any of this wrong, please shout up.

As if you wouldn't

[Marky147]

I think basically for most it is a case of...

Happiness EV >>> Actual EV

It is beyond doubt that it is flawed, however, some obviously find it hard to follow the correct path. I was one of these, but in order to stop I have just lowered my betsize to a level I am happy enough to lose.

Think this is the sum of it Tal

[Dubai]

I think Neil's main point that people don't grasp is Tighty being a solid judge is way more likely to have an edge and place a +ev selection before the ipl starts rather than after x live games, billions of pounds matched. The market is far more likely to be correct at this point so all you are doing is losing commissions and the 0.9% overlay on bf. Plus there's always be argument that if you have a really strong opinion on a team and that the initial market was wrong, it's rare for the market to ever truly correct itself in line with your opinion, so underrated teams stay underrated but probably not as much as at the start and overrated teams stay overrated but to a lesser extent- which is why i basically never lay off and usually have many urges to press instead. Hence why it's more likely you can make a +ev bet before x number of televised games rather than after everyone has access to more information on something's true price.

[Tal]

I think basically for most it is a case of...

Happiness EV >>> Actual EV

It is beyond doubt that it is flawed, however, some obviously find it hard to follow the correct path. I was one of these, but in order to stop I have just lowered my betsize to a level I am happy enough to lose.

Think this is the sum of it Tal

Looks good to me.

It makes far more sense to do it that way. You should only bet what you can afford to lose anyway.

[MereNovice]

I'm just applying logic and what I understand from what I've read in this thread, so if I'm getting any of this wrong, please shout up.

As if you wouldn't

Just to clarify:

Laying a bet to close a position at the right price is correct if both bets are placed on the same exchange where commission is paid.

Also, when using a system such as Kelly it could be correct even if no commission is paid depending on how you calculate your bankroll when you have outstanding bets.
If you determine your bankroll by the amount that you have available to bet, then placing another bet for a percentage of your roll would allow you to place a bigger bet.
This would be the case on Betfair since Betfair returns the stake to your wallet once you have greened out.
If you add a certain amount to your bankroll based on your perceived equity in your outstanding bets this wouldn't necessarily be the case.

[tikay]

Mumbai have not given up.....

65/1 in 7 overs.