Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Steve Clarke was interivewed today at Everton, and is the third man to be interviewed

A good friend of mine at WBA nibbled at 66-1 earlier

Not sure Martinez is the done deal assumed

Bit lost here?

Rangnick, Pereira and Martinez have all spoken to Kenwright too, so unless my maths is even worse than I thought...

Agree with you on the 'done deal' part though, going on what I've been reading they don't think Kenwright does either

I will say it again and probably again that gossip or rumour on these manager markets will send you skint quicker than anything

I had two Wolves fans one of whom is well connected to the club tell me that Jackett was not even on the interview shortlist 4 weeks ago and had and i quote "no chance" (i did tell this to marky via pm)

I am now personally quite convinced they had approached him a week or so before Saunders left and Jackett resigned, this ties in well to the original quotes of the club captain when he left Milwall at a fans forum online

"I have a lot of respect for Kenny but something was not right the last two weeks it was like he had another job lined up"

This along with Kennys i need " a new challenge" line all tied in with the Wolves job.

I honestly doubt that Fred will ever get involved in these Manager's Markets, except maybe as an occasional Banzai Fun Bet. The Market is horribly thin, & we can rarely get more than £5 or £10 on.

I'm so pleased for you though, what a lovely coup, you read it correctly from the very start in the face of much evidence suggesting otherwise.

[BigAdz]

Afternoon Mr T.

I can't have Westwood as favourite to win his 3 ball this evening. I suggest backing the consistent and underrated Billy Horschel to beat Westwood and Laird.

Suggest Horschel £20 @ 15/8 with Corals.

The rugby league game tonight looks like being close, but I have a slight preference for Hull to beat Leeds, but a bigger liking for under 50 points.

After 16 holes & several weather delays, our "Round 2" golf bet is in a world of pain, with Laird 1 over, Westwood 2 over & oir man 4 over. Think we can kiss goodbye to that one.

On this occasion, we did the wrong bet, as hector also hinted at a RL bet, Hull to win (which they did, easily) & UNDER 50 points (24 points).

Hopefully, Team Hector & his band of blind followers took the hint. 

Our Milkman tried to diversify and broaden his range, and move into bread.....stick to what your good at mate!

[Jamier-Host]

Feels like stepping on toes putting up a rugby recommend (apologies hector/tighty), but found something that looks decent when checking the Lions markets this morning.

The weather is due to be very hot and very humid with plenty of worry about players lasting 80 minutes in a decent state.  Therefore I was looking at getting on something in the 1st half where I think the Lions are going to try and fly out of the gates and batter the Baa Baas early.  Checking out the 1st Half handicap market, SportingBet appear to be out of line with everyone else and taking Lions -7.5 seems worth a shout.  This is the same as -7 right?  Still need to win by 8+ points.

So, Recommend Lions to win 1st Half handicap (-7.5), £50 @ 6/5 with SportingBet

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/barbarians-v-lions/half-time-handicap

[tikay]

Feels like stepping on toes putting up a rugby recommend (apologies hector/tighty), but found something that looks decent when checking the Lions markets this morning.

The weather is due to be very hot and very humid with plenty of worry about players lasting 80 minutes in a decent state.  Therefore I was looking at getting on something in the 1st half where I think the Lions are going to try and fly out of the gates and batter the Baa Baas early.  Checking out the 1st Half handicap market, SportingBet appear to be out of line with everyone else and taking Lions -7.5 seems worth a shout.  This is the same as -7 right?  Still need to win by 8+ points.

So, Recommend Lions to win 1st Half handicap (-7.5), £50 @ 6/5 with SportingBet

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/barbarians-v-lions/half-time-handicap

Thank you!

I've no idea if that is a good bet or not as to the chances of it winning, & we rely heavily on hector, Tighty, Rubbish, & many other RU experts to guide us with these things. But.......

You corrrectly note that the price is out of line with everyone else. Not enough to be a palp, but deffo ool, so we've dabbled on that basis. Value Pie & all that.

I believe the game starts at 12.30 today.

We have £50 @ 6/5, Sporting Bet, Half Time (first half) Handicap, Lions over Ba-Bas, -7.5.

ON


Bet Type: Single
Barbarians v British and Irish Lions Half Time Handicap - Based on score after 40 minsBritish and Irish Lions(-7.5)6/5

 

Possible Payout 110.00 GBP

1 bet @
50.00 GBP


Total Cost: 50.00 GBP
Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 110.00 GBP

[Doobs]

Derby Stakes - Offers.

This came in overnight from Wm Hill.



The name on everybody’s lips is 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach so it’ll come as a huge boost that from 08:30am we are going
 

6/4 Dawn Approach in the Investec Derby.

Plus as part of our Channel 4 mobile offer, you can place your racing bet using your mobile and we’ll give your money back as a free bet on every single Channel 4 TV race if your horse finishes second.

The offer applies to bets placed on the mobile site using your mobile phone or tablet. Free bets will be credited to your account by 12:00pm on Sunday 2nd June. Terms and conditions apply.

As dawn approached this morning (ok, at 0630 this morning), Dawn Approach was generally available on Oddschecker @ between 5/4 & 11/8.

Is 2.48/2.5 on Betfair, so the offer isn't massive + we effectively have big +be exposure with the O'Brien not to win a classic bet.  I think we should give it a miss.  I heard Ladbrokes were 7/4 in the shops this morning if anybody is interested.  Not sure how long for and haven't verified it.

[tikay]

Derby Stakes - Offers.

This came in overnight from Wm Hill.



The name on everybody’s lips is 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach so it’ll come as a huge boost that from 08:30am we are going
 

6/4 Dawn Approach in the Investec Derby.

Plus as part of our Channel 4 mobile offer, you can place your racing bet using your mobile and we’ll give your money back as a free bet on every single Channel 4 TV race if your horse finishes second.

The offer applies to bets placed on the mobile site using your mobile phone or tablet. Free bets will be credited to your account by 12:00pm on Sunday 2nd June. Terms and conditions apply.

As dawn approached this morning (ok, at 0630 this morning), Dawn Approach was generally available on Oddschecker @ between 5/4 & 11/8.

Is 2.48/2.5 on Betfair, so the offer isn't massive + we effectively have big +be exposure with the O'Brien not to win a classic bet.  I think we should give it a miss.  I heard Ladbrokes were 7/4 in the shops this morning if anybody is interested.  Not sure how long for and haven't verified it.

Glad you think that, it was my gut feel, too, all things considered.

[tikay]

Daily Report

Profit on the Month £615.16

Outstanding Bets £1,293.75


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=24

In the absence of Tighty, enjoying a well-earned rest for a few days, the Daily Report reverts to me for a wee while. Having read his efforts for the last week or two, he's made me feel woefully inadequate, he writes so bloody well, it was like a slap in the face with a wet whatsit, but anyway, it is what it is.

A thourougly enjoyable final day of the month yesterday, with a wonderful profit on the day of £252.88.

I must mention that this slightly overstates the position, as one of our Greyhound Derby hopeful left the room yesterday (Bridge Honcho), which was a £10 loss, so that will be reflected in tomorrow's numbers.

It is also likely that a £20 Golf Bet (Horschel/Laird/Westwood) will head south, our man is in deep trouble, but play was truncated due to bad weather, & they still have 2 holes to play. Stranger things have happened. 

The balance of the action yesterday centred around the Oaks Stakes, horseracing Offers, & attempts to limit the potential Chompy inflicted damage on the O'Brien "Classics" bet.

We stood to win a fortune on Secret Gesture in the Oaks. Reminiscent of our big positions on Barnet, the 49ers, & Brighton, all of which also lost, we managed to turn a nice profit anyway. We were each way at quarter odds, so we had around 2/1 our money netto, & we also laid her for £50. Not so bad then, & anti-Fen jesting aside, well done Chompy on his first ever non-novelty Fred winner. He predicted everything about the race correctly, & it all went to plan, except that the trainer's second string burst through late on & won handsomely, going away. 

Equally important, Mr O'Brien failed to win the Oaks, so that is now 3 of the season's 5 Classics gone, & he has just two shots left. We stand to win a big lump of money on this, & so some protective measures have been installed.

Finally, Doobs dibbled & dabbled with £25 bets via Wm Hill Mobile all day, partly with a view to Free Bets, we had five shots at £25 a pop, of which 2 won, for a net profit over the 5 bets of nearly £100. Lovely. 

One of the most enjoyable days Fred has ever had.

[tikay]

The JUNE Spreadsheet is below.

We have numerous Derby bets today, some designed to be Chompy inspired O'Brien savers, & I'll list them all well before the race.

We also have some Lions action, Miss Shin, the Horschel bet, & of course the completion of Round One of the Greyhound Derby this evening.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=25

[Rubbish2407]

Feels like stepping on toes putting up a rugby recommend (apologies hector/tighty), but found something that looks decent when checking the Lions markets this morning.

The weather is due to be very hot and very humid with plenty of worry about players lasting 80 minutes in a decent state.  Therefore I was looking at getting on something in the 1st half where I think the Lions are going to try and fly out of the gates and batter the Baa Baas early.  Checking out the 1st Half handicap market, SportingBet appear to be out of line with everyone else and taking Lions -7.5 seems worth a shout.  This is the same as -7 right?  Still need to win by 8+ points.

So, Recommend Lions to win 1st Half handicap (-7.5), £50 @ 6/5 with SportingBet

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/barbarians-v-lions/half-time-handicap

Thank you!

I've no idea if that is a good bet or not as to the chances of it winning, & we rely heavily on hector, Tighty, Rubbish, & many other RU experts to guide us with these things. But.......

You corrrectly note that the price is out of line with everyone else. Not enough to be a palp, but deffo ool, so we've dabbled on that basis. Value Pie & all that.

I believe the game starts at 12.30 today.

We have £50 @ 6/5, Sporting Bet, Half Time (first half) Handicap, Lions over Ba-Bas, -7.5.

ON


Bet Type: Single
Barbarians v British and Irish Lions Half Time Handicap - Based on score after 40 minsBritish and Irish Lions(-7.5)6/5

 

Possible Payout 110.00 GBP

1 bet @
50.00 GBP


Total Cost: 50.00 GBP
Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 110.00 GBP

Hate to do this but I think it will go the other way with a really tight first half and the Lions fitness letting them get on top in the final twenty minutes. There will also be water breaks scheduled for regular intervals according to Jamie Roberts twitter?

I did write a long and winded view on the test series but I ended up deleting it. Not sure why. The gist was that Wales lost by a couple of points in each of their three games last summer, off the top of my head, 1, 2 and 7 points. Even if the Lions picked the 15 Welshmen available to them this Summer they would have a better chance because Priestland wouldn't be outside half. This may sound a little unfair on Rhys Priestland but he did go through a rough patch and doesn't control the game as well as he should. I see the Lions completing a whitewash and running up some big scores to boot.

Finally, a mate of mine is the head coach at the Hong Kong club. He played for Wales B and Newport but I knew him when he was player coach at Cross Keys where a lot of my mates ended up. He could have gone all the way but I guess the reason he didn't lies within his nickname. He was known as Dai deckchair for his propensity to collapse under pressure. Possibly a new nickname for Tikay due to his amazing ability to place the wrong bet when time is running short (or not)?

Good luck if you're on anything today.

[Snowball]

Any thoughts on the heat/humidity in Hong Kong on how it will effect the scoring?
Their's to be 2 water/fan breaks per Half.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Thanks Rubbish, fine Post.

As I said earlier, I have no view whatsoever on the likely outcome, but the price was well ool, & it was on that basis that I proceeded. Perceived valoooooooo

[BigAdz]

Head on chopping block time.

Gonna suggest we take up a position on a couple of Mr Channings suggestions.

For a horse that won the 5f Coventry, and a weakness on the dams side for stamina, I cant have Dawn Approach. With O'brien having a terrible record when he saddles so many, it makes perfect sense to look further down.

With Bad Beat suggesting Mirsaale at 3pts ew at 100-1, and then I hear Jim McGrath back it up, two great judges, at least £10ew should be invested. 100s available all over.

My personal fancy that I put up yesterday is also fancied by Mr C. Galileo Rock @ 40s looks massive for a horse with his stamina laden profile, in a race with so many questions. In his return race at Sandown, he ran like he was only just getting into his stride at the finish over 1.2m. He also had Libertarian well behind, the subsequent Dante winner(ran wide, but of his own choosing, in search of better ground). GR is over twice his price and looked just as likely to appreciate the extra distance.

Suggest another £10ew VC/365

[tikay]

Head on chopping block time.

Gonna suggest we take up a position on a couple of Mr Channings suggestions.

For a horse that won the 5f Coventry, and a weakness on the dams side for stamina, I cant have Dawn Approach. With O'brien having a terrible record when he saddles so many, it makes perfect sense to look further down.

With Bad Beat suggesting Mirsaale at 3pts ew at 100-1, and then I hear Jim McGrath back it up, two great judges, at least £10ew should be invested. 100s available all over.

My personal fancy that I put up yesterday is also fancied by Mr C. Galileo Rock @ 40s looks massive for a horse with his stamina laden profile, in a race with so many questions. In his return race at Sandown, he ran like he was only just getting into his stride at the finish over 1.2m. He also had Libertarian well behind, the subsequent Dante winner(ran wide, but of his own choosing, in search of better ground). GR is over twice his price and looked just as likely to appreciate the extra distance.

Suggest another £10ew VC/365

Thanks Adz, will have a look in a bit, though I confess, I'm already on that Mirsaale thing. (Because I read Mr Channing's article last night!).

In line with our agreement with Joe & Neil, all Neil's fancies for today's Derby are on the Betting Emporium site & I feel I should point everyone in that direction. It is free to sign up to, & every time 100 people sign up, Channing cracks a smile. Value.


http://www.bettingemporium.com/

[BigAdz]

I read it yesterday too, but when I heard Jim M select it, frankly it seemed too good to pass over.

One can but present these things.

[Snowball]

Can I suggest £33 on Stuart Kellet to beat Joe Cullen in todays Austrian Open @10/11 with Betvic
I had a look this morning with Betvic first as oddschecker didn't have the matches up.
This price stood out as I would have it neaerer 4/6 8/11.
Nearly all the other Bookies have now  priced it up and they tend to agree.
Kellet has been talked up as the next Player to break thru for the past couple of years but he has took time to settle in the PDC since his move but this year he seems to be getting a lot of consistency.
Both Players won with 95 averages yesterday tho Kellet was averaging 100+ until he was involved in a scrappy Leg on the Doubles.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/weekend-events/joe-cullen-v-stuart-kellet/winner

Quick clip of Cullen impersonating some Players which is pretty funny
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu1EsN6j1IE