Tips for Tikay

[JaffaCake]

SPOTY, Fred's fave waste of time, just had a tickle of Rose at 66/1....just needs to win this and maybe another major this yr!!

[MereNovice]

Stenson finished on +11.
McIlroy finished on +14.
Garcia finished on +15.

Kim +8 thru 17.

[MereNovice]

Kim finished on +10.

A winner with £10 at 7/1.
The first win of my tenure this year.

Nice one moonandback.

[BigAdz]

SPOTY, Fred's fave waste of time, just had a tickle of Rose at 66/1....just needs to win this and maybe another major this yr!!

Smashed in Mr Cake. Too slow here, as per.GL

[Doobs]

Nigeria are playing Tahiti later today in the Confederation Cup.  I have done some research on Tahiti and can confirm they are rubbish. 

It seems Nigeria have had some discontent in the ranks ahead of the tournament, but are still 1/11 to win the match.  That suggests the match is going to be a little one sided.

Nigeria's best current forward and likely starter up the front is Aide Brown Ideye. He is best priced 3/1 to be first player to score vs the hapless part time Pacific Islanders, and best priced 1/2 to score anytime.  Bet365 are offering 3/1 and a third the odds each way to score anytime.

Think we should go £40 each way with Bet365 on Aide Brown Ideye first goalscorer Nigeria vs Tahiti in the Confederation Cup tomorrow and look forward to when they play Spain in 3 days time.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/confederations-cup/tahiti-v-nigeria/first-goalscorer 

[Tal]

SPOTY, Fred's fave waste of time, just had a tickle of Rose at 66/1....just needs to win this and maybe another major this yr!!

Smashed in Mr Cake. Too slow here, as per.GL

Superb pick, sir.

[MereNovice]

SPOTY, Fred's fave waste of time, just had a tickle of Rose at 66/1....just needs to win this and maybe another major this yr!!

Smashed in Mr Cake. Too slow here, as per.GL

Superb pick, sir.

Currently best price 7/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

[MereNovice]

Nigeria are playing Tahiti later today in the Confederation Cup.  I have done some research on Tahiti and can confirm they are rubbish. 

It seems Nigeria have had some discontent in the ranks ahead of the tournament, but are still 1/11 to win the match.  That suggests the match is going to be a little one sided.

Nigeria's best current forward and likely starter up the front is Aide Brown Ideye. He is best priced 3/1 to be first player to score vs the hapless part time Pacific Islanders, and best priced 1/2 to score anytime.  Bet365 are offering 3/1 and a third the odds each way to score anytime.

Think we should go £40 each way with Bet365 on Aide Brown Ideye first goalscorer Nigeria vs Tahiti in the Confederation Cup tomorrow and look forward to when they play Spain in 3 days time.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/confederations-cup/tahiti-v-nigeria/first-goalscorer 

On

I should probably have waited for someone to confirm this but I've dived in.

Brown Ideye @ 3/1
£40.00  EW  Single   17/06/2013 04:50:20   80.00   0.00


Bet365 pay unlimited places for the place part.
If I've got this right, we break even if he scores anytime and make £160 if he scores first.

[Doobs]

Nigeria are playing Tahiti later today in the Confederation Cup.  I have done some research on Tahiti and can confirm they are rubbish. 

It seems Nigeria have had some discontent in the ranks ahead of the tournament, but are still 1/11 to win the match.  That suggests the match is going to be a little one sided.

Nigeria's best current forward and likely starter up the front is Aide Brown Ideye. He is best priced 3/1 to be first player to score vs the hapless part time Pacific Islanders, and best priced 1/2 to score anytime.  Bet365 are offering 3/1 and a third the odds each way to score anytime.

Think we should go £40 each way with Bet365 on Aide Brown Ideye first goalscorer Nigeria vs Tahiti in the Confederation Cup tomorrow and look forward to when they play Spain in 3 days time.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/confederations-cup/tahiti-v-nigeria/first-goalscorer 

On

I should probably have waited for someone to confirm this but I've dived in.

Brown Ideye @ 3/1
£40.00  EW  Single   17/06/2013 04:50:20   80.00   0.00


Bet365 pay unlimited places for the place part.
If I've got this right, we break even if he scores anytime and make £160 if he scores first.

That is right. 

I had the ghost of Dubai present telling me to Max it, but the ghost of Dubai yet to come told me to save the Max for the Spain game. 

The ghost of TightEnd past has shown me a list of misdemeanors so far this month and thinks I should have given it a miss.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £491.50

Outstanding Bets £1272.25

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&pli=1#gid=25

A profit of £49 yesterday thanks to moonandback's tip for Michael Kim to be the top amateur in the US Open, partially offset by Stenson and Garcia

I think that's the second profitable golf major in a row for the thread, proving nothing is Kim Possible.

We probably have £41 of losses to take today on the Champions Trophy unless Australia defy form and fighting to overcome Sri Lanka at the Oval

Royal Ascot starts tomorrow, and there are currently 5 free bets placed. One of those coming in would make a big difference to the month

The Confederations Cup continues. I now have a reason to tune in to watch Tahiti v Nigeria later...and Spain certainly looked the team to beat on last night's performance

[rinswun]

Tahiti lost 7-0 to a Chilean under 20s side last week in a warm up game. Got to be some value in backing Nigeria 8-0, 9-0, 10-0 at banzai prices of over 100/1?

[rinswun]

Alternatively, the 2-1 on Nigeria getting more than 4 looks more than fair as well.

[simonnatur]

Hi Doobs， quite intrigued by the First goalscorer bet and how it should best be approached. IAB is priced up 1/2 as anytime goalscorer in several spots, so doesnt this have to be quite badly mispriced for our bet to be value If this is the case is it not simpler to back him anytime ? Also if a lot of the ev is from picking 1st  GS are we not better off backing multiple most likely candidates.
I am genuinely not trying to be critical of the bet, just trying to improve my understanding. wondered if it would be a candidate too expand on in your maths thread.

[Doobs]

Hi Doobs， quite intrigued by the First goalscorer bet and how it should best be approached. IAB is priced up 1/2 as anytime goalscorer in several spots, so doesnt this have to be quite badly mispriced for our bet to be value If this is the case is it not simpler to back him anytime ? Also if a lot of the ev is from picking 1st  GS are we not better off backing multiple most likely candidates.
I am genuinely not trying to be critical of the bet, just trying to improve my understanding. wondered if it would be a candidate too expand on in your maths thread.

We do e/w on the first goalscorer, we get evens anytime goalscorer.  We do anytime only we get 1/2.  That difference is where the value comes from.  While it is simpler to back him anytime, there is no other logic to do so.

There might be scope to back more Nigerians, but this fella looked the best bet, and some of the others might not be as good a value, and not sure I'd want to be that massively exposed to this match.  Leave that discussion for others.   

[simonnatur]

will post further on maths thread , don't want to derail here. thanks