Tips for Tikay

[Snowball]

i suspect the coral offer in the morning (8am) for ascot will be a standout on animal kingdom

i wont be online but a few people have suggested it will be laid at 2-1

obviously suggest getting the max if you are able to

looks a very backable price to me already at around evens tbh

25 quid seemingly

[Doobs]

I have done a bit of work on the BetVictor Ascot offer, which is you get your stake returned as a free bet if you lose and Richard Hughes is placed.

The maths is here http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.msg1794042#msg1794042

The horses to back for £25 with BetVictor are

15.45 Mars 12/1
16.25 Thunder Strike 10/1
17.00 Tiger Cliff 6/1
17.35 Justice Day 18/1

In the 16.25 the maths suggested that the best bet was really Jallota at 33/1, but there wasn't much in it and 10/1 is lower variance. 

[Doobs]

i suspect the coral offer in the morning (8am) for ascot will be a standout on animal kingdom

i wont be online but a few people have suggested it will be laid at 2-1

obviously suggest getting the max if you are able to

looks a very backable price to me already at around evens tbh

25 quid seemingly

Obviously take this if it happens.

[The Camel]

I have done a bit of work on the BetVictor Ascot offer, which is you get your stake returned as a free bet if you lose and Richard Hughes is placed.

The maths is here http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.msg1794042#msg1794042

The horses to back for £25 with BetVictor are

15.45 Mars 12/1
16.25 Thunder Strike 10/1
17.00 Tiger Cliff 6/1
17.35 Justice Day 18/1

In the 16.25 the maths suggested that the best bet was really Jallota at 33/1, but there wasn't much in it and 10/1 is lower variance. 

Should back Mars and Tiger Cliff each way.

[Doobs]

I have done a bit of work on the BetVictor Ascot offer, which is you get your stake returned as a free bet if you lose and Richard Hughes is placed.

The maths is here http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.msg1794042#msg1794042

The horses to back for £25 with BetVictor are

15.45 Mars 12/1
16.25 Thunder Strike 10/1
17.00 Tiger Cliff 6/1
17.35 Justice Day 18/1

In the 16.25 the maths suggested that the best bet was really Jallota at 33/1, but there wasn't much in it and 10/1 is lower variance. 

Should back Mars and Tiger Cliff each way.

Camel is right obviously. 

Still got to cover Ladbrokes and Paddy Power in the morning too.  Tikay will be pleased if we back every horse!

[Marky147]

Joe Kinnear

here is his interview just now on talksport

http://t.co/ff37LMefkX

as well as calling cabaye kebab it also features at least 4 claims of his career which are not true and the whole thing is just weird

i am not entirely convinced he is not just on some very long wind up with this

Hope he's not, I chucked 30 quid on Pardew in the 'next to leave' market when I saw it on SSN

[The Camel]

I have done a bit of work on the BetVictor Ascot offer, which is you get your stake returned as a free bet if you lose and Richard Hughes is placed.

The maths is here http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.msg1794042#msg1794042

The horses to back for £25 with BetVictor are

15.45 Mars 12/1
16.25 Thunder Strike 10/1
17.00 Tiger Cliff 6/1
17.35 Justice Day 18/1

In the 16.25 the maths suggested that the best bet was really Jallota at 33/1, but there wasn't much in it and 10/1 is lower variance. 

Should back Mars and Tiger Cliff each way.

Camel is right obviously. 

Still got to cover Ladbrokes and Paddy Power in the morning too.  Tikay will be pleased if we back every horse!

Not a huge fan of backing Justice Day tbh.

The draw over 5f at Ascot since the make over has been all over the place, but low numbers are very unlikely to be favoured. And pretty likely to be disadvantaged. I think Justice Day is likely to drift.

Although it is tiny +ev, the other 3 bets are far better imo. (Can bet Thunder Strike ew too with the enhanced place terms, but not as good as Mars and Tiger Cliff)

[Tal]

I have done a bit of work on the BetVictor Ascot offer, which is you get your stake returned as a free bet if you lose and Richard Hughes is placed.

The maths is here http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.msg1794042#msg1794042

The horses to back for £25 with BetVictor are

15.45 Mars 12/1
16.25 Thunder Strike 10/1
17.00 Tiger Cliff 6/1
17.35 Justice Day 18/1

In the 16.25 the maths suggested that the best bet was really Jallota at 33/1, but there wasn't much in it and 10/1 is lower variance. 

Should back Mars and Tiger Cliff each way.

Camel is right obviously. 

Still got to cover Ladbrokes and Paddy Power in the morning too.  Tikay will be pleased if we back every horse!

Not a huge fan of backing Justice Day tbh.

The draw over 5f at Ascot since the make over has been all over the place, but low numbers are very unlikely to be favoured. And pretty likely to be disadvantaged. I think Justice Day is likely to drift.

Although it is tiny +ev, the other 3 bets are far better imo. (Can bet Thunder Strike ew too with the enhanced place terms, but not as good as Mars and Tiger Cliff)

Not looked at the card yet, but what's on the stalls next door? The early pace is surely more important than the draw?

[Marky147]

Joe Kinnear

here is his interview just now on talksport

http://t.co/ff37LMefkX

as well as calling cabaye kebab it also features at least 4 claims of his career which are not true and the whole thing is just weird

i am not entirely convinced he is not just on some very long wind up with this

Hope he's not, I chucked 30 quid on Pardew in the 'next to leave' market when I saw it on SSN

Just listened to it, the geezer sounds off his nut and you might well be right!

[Doobs]

I have done a bit of work on the BetVictor Ascot offer, which is you get your stake returned as a free bet if you lose and Richard Hughes is placed.

The maths is here http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.msg1794042#msg1794042

The horses to back for £25 with BetVictor are

15.45 Mars 12/1
16.25 Thunder Strike 10/1
17.00 Tiger Cliff 6/1
17.35 Justice Day 18/1

In the 16.25 the maths suggested that the best bet was really Jallota at 33/1, but there wasn't much in it and 10/1 is lower variance. 

Should back Mars and Tiger Cliff each way.

Camel is right obviously. 

Still got to cover Ladbrokes and Paddy Power in the morning too.  Tikay will be pleased if we back every horse!

Not a huge fan of backing Justice Day tbh.

The draw over 5f at Ascot since the make over has been all over the place, but low numbers are very unlikely to be favoured. And pretty likely to be disadvantaged. I think Justice Day is likely to drift.

Although it is tiny +ev, the other 3 bets are far better imo. (Can bet Thunder Strike ew too with the enhanced place terms, but not as good as Mars and Tiger Cliff)

Will have a look in the morning and get one to replace Justice Day.  He has drifted a bit already, and with the offer there are usually a few to choose from which are +EV. 

[cheapwetsuit]

Tahiti lost 7-0 to a Chilean under 20s side last week in a warm up game. Got to be some value in backing Nigeria 8-0, 9-0, 10-0 at banzai prices of over 100/1?

Nice tip, Rinswun. Never thought I'd have so much fun watching two mediocre teams play football. Ended up having a oner each on 6-0, 7-0, 8-0, 9-0 and 10-0. A bit of change risked with a lot of upside. Undone by a classy header, and some shoddy Nigerian finishing ... but it was a laugh. Will be doing the same for the Spain game ... maybe starting at 7-0 this time

[MereNovice]

I have done a bit of work on the BetVictor Ascot offer, which is you get your stake returned as a free bet if you lose and Richard Hughes is placed.

The maths is here http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.msg1794042#msg1794042

The horses to back for £25 with BetVictor are

15.45 Mars 12/1
16.25 Thunder Strike 10/1
17.00 Tiger Cliff 6/1
17.35 Justice Day 18/1

In the 16.25 the maths suggested that the best bet was really Jallota at 33/1, but there wasn't much in it and 10/1 is lower variance. 

Should back Mars and Tiger Cliff each way.

Camel is right obviously. 

Still got to cover Ladbrokes and Paddy Power in the morning too.  Tikay will be pleased if we back every horse!

Not a huge fan of backing Justice Day tbh.

The draw over 5f at Ascot since the make over has been all over the place, but low numbers are very unlikely to be favoured. And pretty likely to be disadvantaged. I think Justice Day is likely to drift.

Although it is tiny +ev, the other 3 bets are far better imo. (Can bet Thunder Strike ew too with the enhanced place terms, but not as good as Mars and Tiger Cliff)

Will have a look in the morning and get one to replace Justice Day.  He has drifted a bit already, and with the offer there are usually a few to choose from which are +EV. 

Too late for Fred. Sorry, I peaked too soon.
Places all as e/w as I assumed that the same logic applied for all.
Only got 9/1 on Thunder Strike.
Shoot me now.

On

GBP 12.50 Each Way Single: 13 JUSTICE DAY @ 18/1
GBP 12.50 Each Way Single: 7 TIGER CLIFF @ 6/1
GBP 12.50 Each Way Single: 14 THUNDER STRIKE @ 9/1
GBP 12.50 Each Way Single: 7 MARS @ 12/1

[The Camel]

I have done a bit of work on the BetVictor Ascot offer, which is you get your stake returned as a free bet if you lose and Richard Hughes is placed.

The maths is here http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.msg1794042#msg1794042

The horses to back for £25 with BetVictor are

15.45 Mars 12/1
16.25 Thunder Strike 10/1
17.00 Tiger Cliff 6/1
17.35 Justice Day 18/1

In the 16.25 the maths suggested that the best bet was really Jallota at 33/1, but there wasn't much in it and 10/1 is lower variance. 

Should back Mars and Tiger Cliff each way.

Camel is right obviously. 

Still got to cover Ladbrokes and Paddy Power in the morning too.  Tikay will be pleased if we back every horse!

Not a huge fan of backing Justice Day tbh.

The draw over 5f at Ascot since the make over has been all over the place, but low numbers are very unlikely to be favoured. And pretty likely to be disadvantaged. I think Justice Day is likely to drift.

Although it is tiny +ev, the other 3 bets are far better imo. (Can bet Thunder Strike ew too with the enhanced place terms, but not as good as Mars and Tiger Cliff)

Not looked at the card yet, but what's on the stalls next door? The early pace is surely more important than the draw?

To a certain extent yes.

But in the past the ground has been so much quicker on the other side, they just get marooned in the middle as they whizz up the rails.

Racing is so good and there's so much to get excited about, I'll probably be leaving this heat alone and watching the affect of the draw closely with regards to events later in the week.

[MereNovice]

I have done a bit of work on the BetVictor Ascot offer, which is you get your stake returned as a free bet if you lose and Richard Hughes is placed.

The maths is here http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.msg1794042#msg1794042

The horses to back for £25 with BetVictor are

15.45 Mars 12/1
16.25 Thunder Strike 10/1
17.00 Tiger Cliff 6/1
17.35 Justice Day 18/1

In the 16.25 the maths suggested that the best bet was really Jallota at 33/1, but there wasn't much in it and 10/1 is lower variance. 

Should back Mars and Tiger Cliff each way.

Camel is right obviously. 

Still got to cover Ladbrokes and Paddy Power in the morning too.  Tikay will be pleased if we back every horse!

Not a huge fan of backing Justice Day tbh.

The draw over 5f at Ascot since the make over has been all over the place, but low numbers are very unlikely to be favoured. And pretty likely to be disadvantaged. I think Justice Day is likely to drift.

Although it is tiny +ev, the other 3 bets are far better imo. (Can bet Thunder Strike ew too with the enhanced place terms, but not as good as Mars and Tiger Cliff)

Not looked at the card yet, but what's on the stalls next door? The early pace is surely more important than the draw?

To a certain extent yes.

But in the past the ground has been so much quicker on the other side, they just get marooned in the middle as they whizz up the rails.

Racing is so good and there's so much to get excited about, I'll probably be leaving this heat alone and watching the affect of the draw closely with regards to events later in the week.

Doesn't Fred have a contributor who is very knowledgeable about draws?

[MereNovice]

Confirmed that Bet365 have voided the Brown Ideye bet.